Countering Russia and China in Africa
Countering Russia and China in Africa
National Security Advisor John Bolton unveils the Trump Administration's Africa Strategy at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., Dec. 13.
Photo:
Cliff Owen/Associated Press
The Trump Administration announced on Thursday that competition with China and Russia will become a new American focus in Africa, rather than terrorism. The broad policy, as outlined by National Security Adviser John Bolton, is encouraging. Its success depends on the details of America’s economic relationship with the continent.
Washington wants to offer African countries an alternative to partnership with Beijing and Moscow. “America’s vision for the region is one of independence, self-reliance and growth—not dependency, domination, and debt,” said Mr. Bolton. The U.S. plans to counter its rivals by reforming foreign-aid programs while deepening economic and security ties.
This new emphasis makes sense. The United Nations estimates that Africa’s population could double to 2.5 billion by 2050—a huge market of human potential and natural resources. Friendly relations with a stable Africa are critical to U.S. economic and military interests, lest poverty and political dysfunction radiate instability through mass emigration or security threats.
Chinese investment in Africa was $6.4 billion in 2016-17, including billions on railways, oil refineries, ports and public works. Beijing says its partnerships are based on “sincerity, friendship and equality.” Yet it offers predatory loans that let it later seize strategic resources.
Consider how Djibouti fared as it deepened ties with China. The government’s external debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 85% in 2016, from 50% in 2014, largely thanks to Chinese loans. Beijing has used this economic leverage to gain a military base from which China harasses U.S. pilots. Chinese state-owned companies could soon take control of a strategic port in Djibouti along the Red Sea.
As an economic backwater, Russia has less to offer. But it still has established a foothold in countries like the Central African Republic, where it sells weapons and trains the military. European diplomats accuse Moscow of ties to antigovernment militias.
The U.S. can reject such transactional self-interest in favor of shared economic opportunity. Mr. Bolton stressed the new “Prosper Africa” initiative is not foreign aid. Instead, it will “support U.S. investment across the continent, grow Africa’s middle class, and improve the overall business climate in the region.”
The best approach is through trade rather than loan guarantees or other subsidies, and Mr. Bolton says the U.S. will pursue bilateral trade deals in Africa. Expanded opportunities for U.S. firms can foster economic growth and encourage better governance. Even better would be encouraging intra-Africa trade by opening the door for a multilateral deal linked to a continental free-trade area.
Terrorism won’t disappear despite a U.S. pivot to economics. The Pentagon is preparing to remove 10% of its 7,200 service members in Africa, as Mr. Bolton wants Africans to “take ownership over peace and security in their own neighborhood.” This is reasonable, but the U.S. needs to assist in that effort lest terror pockets reassemble as jihadists did in Iraq.
President Trump has shown little interest in Africa, and Africans haven’t forgotten his vulgar description of poor countries. But Mr. Bolton makes a good case for the continent’s strategic value, and Mr. Trump can help persuade Africans the U.S. is their best partner in promoting development and peace.
Appeared in the December 14, 2018, print edition.
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