Trump enters a long and cold war with Iran
Trump enters a long and cold war with Iran
President Trump warned Iran that the punitive sanctions it plans to impose on Monday are only the initial salvo of an ambitious strategy to force Tehran to withdraw from its assertive position in the Middle East or risk of collapse.
"Our goal is to force the regime to make a clear decision: to abandon its destructive behavior or to continue on the road to economic disaster," Trump said in a statement Friday night.
The guiding assumption behind the administration's policy is that Iran is economically weak, has little interest in a military confrontation with the United States, and that Washington can force changes in decades of Iranian behavior that will reconfigure the Middle East, officials and experts say. .
But senior Iranian officials insist that Tehran will not withdraw or negotiate. Former US officials UU With long experience they say that Tehran has letters to play, including the attempt to overcome the sanctions in the hope that Mr. Trump will be a single-term president and take advantage of the continuing turmoil in the region to Create new challenges for the United States and its allies..
"Iran is gaining ground in the region, and I do not see these sanctions reversing that," said Jeffrey Feltman, who was the top State Department official in Middle East affairs from 2009 to 2012 and later served as deputy secretary general of The United Nations. for political affairs.
An early test of the "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign of the Trump administration will arrive in Syria. The White House has sought Russian President Vladimir Putin It helps to pressure the Iranian forces and the Shiite militias. Tehran moves back to leave the country, until now, without success.
Administration officials are now calculating that Draconian economic measures It can make Iran declare its military mission in Syria fulfilled and bring its forces home. To emphasize the issue, US officials have published figures stating that Iran's annual account to maintain its Lebanese ally Hezbollah is approximately $ 700 million, while Tehran has spent at least $ 16 billion in recent years to support to its allies in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
However, some former US officials UU They say that Iran's support for the Assad regime and Hezbollah are the main priorities that Tehran will try to maintain at all costs.
"They are heavily invested in Syria, and the IRGC will not go anywhere soon," said Ryan Crocker, the veteran US diplomat, referring to the paramilitary body of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards.
At a meeting last month with reporters and editors of the Wall Street Journal, Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif described Iran's military presence in Syria as defensive and disputed the idea that its forces should withdraw.
"We believe that if we do not fight against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, we will have to fight it in Iran," Zarif said. "Our people recognize that."
"
The oppressive regimes can not last forever and the day will come when people will face an election. Will they continue on the path of poverty, bloodshed and terror, or will the Iranian people return to the proud roots of the nation as a center of civilization, culture and wealth, where its people can be happy and prosperous?
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Iran's nuclear activities are another area where the strategy of the Trump administration will be tested.
Iran has rejected US demands to accept restrictions on its nuclear program that are much stricter than those imposed by the 2015 agreement negotiated by the Obama administration and rejected by Mr. Trump. At the same time, Iran has adhered to European appeals that adhere to the 2015 agreement., which Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China are trying to preserve.
But Mr. Zarif said Tehran could relax its adherence to that agreement if the economic benefits it still expects from the agreement do not occur.
"We have the possibility of a partial reduction of our commitment," Zarif said. "We will have to make that decision when the time comes."
Such a move could increase tensions between Europe and Washington over how to deal with Iran's nuclear capability.
"His strategy from now on is the expectation that Trump will be weakened by the midterm elections and he will not be reelected in 2020, essentially a wait-and-see approach," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Foundation. For Peace International, a nonpartisan think tank.
"But its economy is in a bad state, and the trend lines are only going to get worse," he added. "They may soon come to the conclusion that they have more influence in reconstituting their nuclear activities, not from 0 to 100, but from 0 to 20."
In an effort to persuade Iran to comply with the 2015 agreement, the European Union is moving towards the establishment of a special payment channel to maintain economic ties with Iran. But Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday he did not expect the canal to be effective in the face of US pressure.
Iran is also expected to reactivate its long development. Ability to evade sanctions., looking to dodge economic bullets from Washington. But the Trump administration has promised to take energetic measures.
In an August tweet, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran would not militarily challenge the United States. "THERE WILL BE NO WAR, NOR WILL WE NEGOTIATE WITH THE UNITED STATES," he wrote.
Despite the Ayatollah's statement, some experts believe there is a risk that the regime will be launched, perhaps through regional proxies or covert operations that Tehran would publicly deny, in response to mounting economic pressure and calls from the Secretary of State. State Mike Pompeo for the Iranians to "restore democracy."
"Does anyone remember Beirut 1983?" Mr. Crocker said, referring to the bombing of a United States Navy barracks in Beirut. "They can find a way to make life difficult for us."
Iran trained and equipped the Shiite militias that attacked US forces during the Iraq war. So far, these militias have refrained from attacking the military advisers of the United States who returned to Iraq for the campaign against the Islamic State. But the State Department said in September that it was closure of the consulate of the United States in Basra, citing security risks of the forces backed by Iran.
Even the firm supporters of Iran's management policy recognize the risks.
"The government has invested enormous energy in tightening the knot of sanctions as strong as possible," said John Hannah, who served as an advisor to former Vice President Dick Cheney and is now a senior adviser to the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, which has urged The administration will impose harsh sanctions on Iran.
"I hope they have spent so much time planning all the ways that Iran could use terrorism, proxies and cyber weapons to disrupt oil markets, destabilize our allies and attack the interests of the United States," he added.
The 12 lawsuits issued to Iran by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on May 21.
- 1. Iran must provide a full report of its previous investigations on nuclear weapons and abandon that work forever.
- 2. Iran must stop enriching uranium, never pursue the reprocessing of plutonium and shut down its heavy water reactor.
- 3. Iran must give unqualified access to the International Atomic Energy Agency to all sites in the country.
- 4. Iran must end its proliferation of ballistic missiles and stop developing missiles that can carry nuclear weapons.
- 5. Iran must free all US citizens. UU And to the allies and partners of the USA. UU
- 6. Iran must end support for Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other "terrorist" groups in the Middle East.
- 7. Iran must respect the sovereignty of the Iraqi government and allow the demobilization and reintegration of Shiite militias.
- 8. Iran must end its military support for the Houthi insurgency and work to achieve a political agreement in Yemen.
- 9. Iran must withdraw all forces in Syria under Iranian command.
- 10. Iran must end support for the Taliban and stop sheltering the leaders of al Qaeda.
- 11. Iran must end support for terrorists and militant partners by its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
- 12. Iran must end its threats against Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other neighbors.
- (Source: US Department of State)
Write to Michael R. Gordon in michael.gordon@wsj.com
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