Trump & # 039; s Republican Populism
Trump & # 039; s Republican Populism
Long before he became president, Donald Trump was a celebrity, a walking mess of political mistakes that mounted his multi-million dollar populism to the Oval Office.
But a funny thing happened to Mr. Trump once he became president. At some point he realized that if he was not going to faint like so many populists before him - he thinks the professional wrestler became governor Jesse "El Cuerpo" Ventura in Minnesota or Arnold "El Terminator" Schwarzenegger in California - he would have to tie up his populism To the republican political agenda. And, above all, he has done it.
This record is easily lost amid Trumpian tweets and excesses. Even so, it remains a record that most Republicans applaud: a major revision of the tax system that has brought life back to the economy, two star jurists sitting on the Supreme Court and a record number of confirmed candidates for district courts. and on appeal, an exhaustive regulatory review, courtesy of what had been the Congress Review Act largely unused, not to mention a backlog of defense.
These are precisely the kind of victories that losing even a House of Congress would make it almost impossible to move forward. Judging from the president's many rallies and his new jokes with the old opponents, he knows it too.
Take Ted Cruz, a rival in the 2016 GOP presidential primary. During the primaries, Mr. Trump routinely referred to the Texas senator as "Lyin 'Ted." At one point, he embraced a National Enquirer report that claimed Cruz's father had partnered with JFK killer Lee Harvey Oswald shortly before the shooting.
As president, Mr. Trump now appreciates that in a tight Senate he can not afford a Democrat to take Mr. Cruz's seat. That's why the president was in Houston last week organizing a rally of monsters by the senator who now calls "Beautiful Ted."
It could have been very different. After the Senate failed to repeal ObamaCare in 2017, pointing fingers was the order of the day, with Mr. Trump complaining about the Senate direction of Mitch McConnell. No one on the Republican Party side was getting anywhere, until the Senate changed the focus by pushing through something that did Approve, the Law on Tax and Employment Cuts.
Equally in the house. Mr. Trump can boast "so much to win". But without the considerable legislation, President Paul Ryan and his Republican group have sent to the president's desk for his signature, the winning words would remain empty.
Give the president what he deserves too. Yes, he has supplied his White House with butterflies (Steve Bannon), troublemakers (Omarosa Manigault), largemouth (Anthony Scaramucci) and named hostile Pat Buchanan to free trade (Robert Lighthizer). But he has also held key positions in the Trump administration with strong conservatives who would have felt just as well in a Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio in the White House (Larry Kudlow in the National Economic Council, Don McGahn as White House attorney, John Bolton in the National Security Council).
Mr. Trump has also known where to seek advice. In 2016, Senator Cruz challenged him in the Supreme Court elections and said it was likely that Mr. Trump would elect a candidate like his sister Maryanne Trump Barry, a person appointed by Clinton to the Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. USA UU -together with the pro-abortion liberal judge. "Mr. Trump responded by having Leonard Leo, of the Federalist Society, propose what conservatives consider a list of jurists of the dream team among whom Mr. Trump said he would choose. Once again, he has.
In other words, despite all that is being said about how Trump's populism is changing the Republican Party, his most significant achievements have come when he hooked his populism to traditional conservative priorities and then worked with his Republican colleagues to fulfill their promises
That's why the bets are high on Tuesday. Losing the house may not be the end of the world for the president - Mr. Trump may even consider the speaker Nancy Pelosi as a gift in the run up to 2020, but it will almost certainly mean the end of the great legislative achievements like those We have seen in the last two years.
Losing the Senate would be even worse. Democrats are still upset by Mr. McConnell's decision two years ago not to hold hearings for Merrick Garland, Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee, during a presidential election year. If the Democrats gain control, they will use it to frustrate many of Mr. Trump's candidates, either for the federal courts or his own cabinet. And if a Democratic house succeeds in removing the president, Mr. Trump will want to have the majority of Republicans in the Senate.
Despite all the blows and bruises, the collaboration between Trump and the Republicans has produced great achievements for the American people. But if these intermediate tests take their normal historical course, the Republican Party will lose one or both houses of Congress. And that, in turn, would test the effectiveness of Trump's populism without his fellow Republicans on the Capitol building the agenda.
Write to mcgurn@wsj.com.
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