The Democrats & # 039; The victory of the house complicates the passage of trade agreements
The Democrats & # 039; The victory of the house complicates the passage of trade agreements
The Trump administration faces a heated commercial battle with Congress after the Democratic Party resumed the House of Representatives, representing a major challenge for President Trump. deal with mexico and canada.
Securing approval by Congress of the renewal of the North American Free Trade Agreement will be much more difficult with a divided Congress. A House led by Democrats gives Mr. Trump the political power to demand concessions in exchange for the ratification of the new agreement. reached in September and renamed the Agreement between EE. UU and Mexico-Canada, or USMCA.
The new White House agreement with Canada and Mexico, among other things, makes it less attractive for car manufacturers and other manufacturers to relocate factories in Mexico to take advantage of cheaper labor costs. The legislators of the three countries must now ratify the agreement.
Manufacturing workers, particularly auto workers, are "the biggest winners" of the renegotiated deal, Lawrence Kudlow, the chairman of the president's National Economic Council, said in an interview.
"If the Democratic Party is truly the party of the blue-collar man and woman," said Mr. Kudlow, "they will support this agreement."
Democrats will now take control of the House, which is more challenging than the Senate when it comes to approving trade agreements. Many Republicans in the House of Representatives, not to mention the Democrats, are skeptical of trade agreements because they fear that they will give up the sovereignty of the United States or jeopardize the jobs of the workers in their districts.
Most Democrats, backed by unions, have expressed skepticism about trade liberalization, unless the agreements allow workers from other countries to take advantage of higher labor standards and wages. The step "will depend on whether the unions want to pressure him," said a senior White House official.
The AFL-CIO, a large federation of unions, said in official comments that it has "serious doubts that improving the rules will make a significant difference for working families in North America without additional provisions." Several environmental groups have rejected the new agreement.
President Trump has expressed his intentions to continue with his trade agenda, saying that in a tweet on Wednesday who was congratulated by the mid-term election results of "foreign nations (friends) that were waiting for me, and with the hope of trade agreements, now we can all go back to work and do things!"
For most presidents, the implementation of trade agreements generally involves two successive battles: first bargaining with business partners and then pressuring legislators to vote in favor of trade agreements, a politically divisive area that does not respect the lines traditional parties.
A senior White House official said the administration had long anticipated the possibility of a Democratic victory in one or both houses of Congress, and as a result, the US trade representative. UU Robert Lighthizer and his team specifically negotiated provisions that would appear reasonable for both political parties.
Mr. Lighthizer has pointed out for a long time that he understands the need to get through the lines of the party. "He's going to end up looking like a fortune-teller trying to find a bipartisan equilibrium in NAFTA that allows Republicans and Democrats to stay in the talks," said Lori Wallach, chief trade expert at the left watchdog group. Citizen, and who advises Mr. Lighthizer on some policy issues.
"We are very confident that Congress will approve the USMCA," said Emily Davis, spokesperson for Mr. Lighthizer's office. "From the beginning, Ambassador Lighthizer has worked closely with the Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives and the Senate in the renegotiation of this agreement."
I know. UU And Canada reached a last-minute agreement at the end of September 30 to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement. We look at what is and what has changed. Photo: Getty Images.
Democratic lawmakers complain that the new agreement does not have enforcement mechanisms strong enough to guarantee that Mexico implements stricter labor standards, which include requirements to allow fully independent unions with collective bargaining rights to help raise wages.
Mr. Trump was chosen in part on a platform of contempt for Naphtha for displacing some manufacturing jobs, and has also been very critical of other US trade agreements. In an interview with 60 Minutes last month, he said that the biggest regret of his presidency so far is that "he could have been before the termination of the Nafta agreement."
The other great legislative impulse of Mr. Trump:the fiscal law of 2017It was crafted and approved with Republicans, which gives its administration little experience in working with Democratic lawmakers, many of whom are eager to oppose the president.
Under the 2015 commercial law known as "fast lane," Mr. Trump has the right to present the USMCA to the House of Representatives and the Senate for an up or down vote, with no modifications or procedural delays allowed. But a speaker from the Democratic House next year could introduce a rule to eliminate the fast track consideration, effectively killing it.
In 2008, then-speaker Nancy Pelosi passed a rule to prevent the House of Representatives from considering the free trade agreement with Colombia negotiated by former President George W. Bush. His move, which followed a Democratic push for stronger labor standards in the trade pacts, gained the support of almost all Democrats, and even some Republicans, effectively delaying a vote on the Colombia agreement until the Obama administration.
As congressional aides, congressional advisors said, as a price for not meddling in a vote, the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, whether it be Ms. Pelosi or another Democrat, could demand changes to the USMCA or even concessions. unrelated
Mr. Trump still has leverage. He has repeatedly warned that he would withdraw from the current version of Nafta if he does not receive a new one. Before the election between the USMCA of Trump or the retirement of the agreement, many legislators would doubt in taking a hard line.
Beyond the House of Representatives, the Senate led by the Republicans may also have some influence in the search for changes in trade policy to pave the way for a vote by the USMCA. Many Senators of the Republican Party have complained about the tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump on steel and aluminum for reasons of national security and their threats to impose levies on imports of automobiles and auto parts.
Marc Short, former director of legislative affairs at the White House, said in an interview that the USMCA is a possible victim of a Democratic victory.
"The Democrats in Congress are politically motivated not to deliver a victory to the president on trade," he said.
-Peter Nicholas contributed to this article.
Write to William Mauldin in william.mauldin@wsj.com and Vivian Salama in vivian.salama@wsj.com
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