Russia is a surprise beneficiary of the ban on oil in Iran
Russia is a surprise beneficiary of the ban on oil in Iran
An early winner of the last round of Iranian sanctions is emerging: Russia.
the The United States began to impose a new and difficult list of economic restrictions against Iran on Monday, including a threat to sanction buyers of Iranian crude. That has refineries in Europe and Asia, big recent buyers of Iranian oil, looking for alternative supplies. Russian oil companies have intervened, stealing customers from Iran. The two countries produce similar crude grades, which makes the change of refiners relatively easy.
But Moscow is also offering Tehran a lifeline for its raw beached. He says he plans challenge US sanctions and buy Iranian imports. It is offering to pay only in the form of barter and then process the crude for domestic use. That would free up its own oil for more lucrative oil export markets.
"Russia is playing everywhere," said Helima Croft, chief commodity strategist at Canadian brokerage RBC.
Russia regards Iran as a key ally in its expanded geopolitical role in post-civil war Syria. He has criticized the new round of US sanctions UU And he says he will not be subject to them. In recent months, Moscow has repeatedly said it would buy at least 100,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil, which would provide a welcome buyer for oil that otherwise could not find a customer. Russia is offering to pay the crude with Russian machinery and food, according to the Russian Ministry of Petroleum. It also promises to invest in the Iranian oil sector as Western companies retire.
Russia sees Iran as a key ally and has criticized the new round of sanctions by the United States. Here, President Vladimir Putin meets supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in September 2018.
Photo:
Iranian supreme leader / AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE / GETTY IMAGES
The new sanctions imposed by Washington specifically target Iranian oil exports, the most important economic pillar of that country. US officials want to cover 2.2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude export capacity, threatening buyers with sanctions. Many buyers, because they use the banking system of the United States, are vulnerable to such sanctions and are already retreating. Russia is less vulnerable to reprisals from Washington, since it is already under US sanctions and its economy and financial system are less linked to the United States than the countries of Western Europe.
Iranian exports had fallen about 800,000 barrels per day since before the United States announced its new set of sanctions. Observers of the oil market expect it to fall sharply now that the sanctions are in effect.
A combination of machine learning, big data and tens of millions of satellite images of the planet every day is bad news for Iranian oil carriers trying to evade US oil sanctions. UU This is why.
While promising to help Iran, Russia is replacing Tehran in the global oil market. Your performance has increased. By almost half a million barrels per day, compared to last year, it recently reached a production record of 30 years. Russia, the world's largest oil producer, pumped 11.41 million barrels per day in October, 4.3% more than in the same period last year.
Some of that new oil is being recovered by Iran's former customers.
That is especially the case in Europe, where buyers have been abruptly stopping the Iranian purchase because they tend to be more exposed to the commercial and financial systems of the United States.
For European refineries, Russian oil is a natural substitute for Iranian crude because it tends to be medium density and relatively high sulfur levels can generally be sent to their plants faster than other replacement crude oils. Italian refiners
SpA and
SpA, for example, is taking more advantage of Russia's oil, especially its popular Urals grade, to offset Iranian oil, according to people familiar with the subject. The spokespersons for Eni and Saras did not respond to the calls for comment.
The Urals [grade] will benefit, "Patrick Pouyanne, executive director of
Total
SA,
He said at a London energy conference last month.
Total stopped buying Iranian crude in Julysaid the company. The following month, it bought 217,000 barrels per day of Russian crude for its Le Havre refinery in France, a maximum so far this year, according to data from the Kpler shipping tracker.
Russia is also replacing Iranian crude for clients outside the European Union. Turkey resumed Russian oil imports in June after a three-month absence, offsetting cuts in Iran's oil purchases, according to official statistics. Turkey has also committed to defying US sanctions, but many of its companies have deep international ties and would be vulnerable to US sanctions.
That is already being translated into. Higher profits for Moscow state energy companies.. On Tuesday, Rosneft reported a three-fold increase in net income to 451 billion rubles ($ 6.8 billion) during the first nine months of 2018 compared to the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in production and higher prices for the Urals.
The same replacement effect occurred in China, which reduced Iran's oil imports by 34% in September from year to year, while Russian sales increased by 7%.
In South Korea, Tehran's oil sales collapsed in August, falling by 85% on an annual basis. Russian shipments increased 20% the same month, according to South Korean customs.
-Anatoly Kurmanayev and Ann Simmons contributed to this article.
Write to Benoit Faucon in benoit.faucon@wsj.com
.
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