Henry Paulson delivers a sober message about US relations UU And China
Henry Paulson delivers a sober message about US relations UU And China
Few people have defended the commitment of the United States with China with such force or success as Henry Paulson, first in
later as Secretary of the Treasury, and now as an elder statesman.
Then, when Mr. Paulson concludes that the compromise is failing and an "economic iron curtain" may soon descend between the two, it is a cautionary statement of the dangerous state of relations between the two economic superpowers.
In a speech delivered on Wednesday in Singapore.Mr. Paulson warns China that his behavior has alienated American friends and unified the American public against him. It is less critical with the EE. UU But, nevertheless, he believes that he has unrealistic expectations about China and its own allies. If neither of them changes course, the result will be "a long winter in the relations between the United States and China" and "systemic risk of monumental proportions".
Mr. Paulson is best remembered for Facing the financial crisis in 2008.However, their contribution to the economic relations of the United States and China can be so important. He first traveled to China in the early 1990s in search of an investment banking business for Goldman, and eventually helped several of China's major state-owned companies restructure and trade on the stock exchanges. In 2006 he became Treasury Secretary to President George W. Bush and launched the "Strategic economic dialogue" Among the main US and Chinese officials will be responsible for managing the bilateral relationship.
Along the way, he cultivated ties with leading Chinese leaders. He remains friends with Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan, a lieutenant of President Xi Jinping.
However, Paulson does not skimp on his criticism of China's current leadership. Seventeen years after joining the World Trade Organization, he says, "it has not opened its economy to foreign competition in so many areas," using joint venture requirements, property limits, technical standards, subsidies, licensing procedures and regulations. to block foreigners. competition. "This is simply unacceptable."
China's reformist zeal peaked soon after joined the WTO under then President Jiang Zemin. The enthusiasm then faded away under his successor, Hu Jintao. When Mr. Xi took over in 2013, Mr. Paulson took the floor that markets and private companies would boost Chinese development. They have not done so, what Mr. Paulson attributes to the control of the Communist Party.
The biography of Henry Paulson
- 1974 Joins Goldman Sachs
- 1994 Open offices in Beijing, Shanghai
- 1997 Help China Telecom become public
- 1998 Become co-executive director
- 1999 Lead the restructuring of Guangdong companies
- 2006 Invests in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
- 2006 He becomes Secretary of the Treasury; meet Xi Jinping
- 2006 Start the strategic economic dialogue with China
- 2008 Oversees the response to the financial crisis.
- 2011 Establishes the Paulson Institute to promote commitment to China
- 2014 Meets with Xi in Beijing
"Jiang Zemin talked about the party as a big tent," Paulson said in an interview last week. "His opinion was: 'We need the elites to enter the party': business leaders, academics and others." Xi Jinping sees the party itself as the elite, and the party, not the bureaucracy, would be the organization through which he governed. "
In his speech at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, Paulson says the centralization of power in the Communist Party and continued discrimination against foreign companies has united US leaders across the political spectrum in the belief that China is a strategic rival whose ascent "has arrived". at the expense of the United States. "Trade in technological goods raises national security concerns and, therefore, fuels instead of cushioning geopolitical rivalry, he says.
Meanwhile, China has managed to alienate Americans more willing to defend it, especially business, Paulson argues. "How can it be that those who know China best, work there, do business there, earn money there and have advocated for productive relationships in the past, are among those who now advocate more confrontation?" It is true that some have accepted the "La Ganga Faustian" of today's benefits on tomorrow's competitiveness, "but that does not mean they are happy with that," he says.
President Trump is surrounded by hawks from China who will undoubtedly see the irony that Paulson is echoing his complaints. They see the commitment he defended as having allowed China's economic and strategic transgressions.
At a mega trade fair in China, global companies and political leaders were looking for clues to Xi Jinping's strategy ahead of planned trade talks with President Trump. Photo: Reuters
However, Paulson has acted as an intermediary between the officials of the Chinese administration and Trump, in particular Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who worked for him at Goldman. And in his speech, Mr. Paulson points out support for Trump's difficult approach to China and the WTO for not altering the discriminatory behavior of China. However, the notion that is now making money among the hawks of China that the two countries must uncouple is, he believes, dangerously naive.
"The United States and China are not, in fact, a couple," he says. "There are more than two players here, what if the others, especially in Asia, do not want to follow their example?"
No country, he says, will be isolated from such a large and rapidly growing economy as China, especially in Asia, by virtue of "its geography, the economic gravity and the strategic reality with which it lives every day."
In other words, if they are forced to choose, many countries will choose China, leaving the US as the isolated one, says Paulson.
US officials also must not see their deep ideological differences with China as an existential threat or a barrier to cooperation, he says. Both need institutions and global rules that work to address cross-border environmental, economic and strategic challenges.
"There is a revisionist myth that some of us who work to involve China thought it would become a Jeffersonian democracy or a Western liberal order," Paulson said in his interview. "We never thought that, we always knew that the Communist Party would play an important and dominant role."
The problem now, he says, is that some in the United States believe that a clash is inevitable unless China liberalizes politically: "If we do this on your political system, we're really going to be in a difficult place because we're not. to change their political system. "
Write to Greg Ip in greg.ip@wsj.com
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