Free agents who can't afford to wait

Free agents who can't afford to wait

Free agents who can't afford to wait

Last offseason, free-agent signings came at a snail's pace as teams opted to wait out the market and get better deals. The strategy didn't affect too many high-end free agents, as J.D. Martinez, Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain all got big money despite having to wait, and Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb still did pretty well in March. But not all players did so well.  Lance Lynn, Neil Walker, Mike Moustakas and Greg Holland were among those who had to settle for one-year deals at amounts far less than they probably expected.

With that latter group of players in mind, let's look at some who could find themselves in the same position this winter if they don't strike a deal soon.

Mike Moustakas, third baseman: Most of the players left holding the bag last winter were non-elite regulars in a market that offered alternatives close in value. After the Los Angeles Angels signed Zack Cozart, the San Francisco Giants traded for Evan Longoria and the New York Mets signed Todd Frazier, there weren't many teams left looking for third basemen, which left Moustakas to return to the Royals on a one-year deal.

This year, with Josh Donaldson quickly signing with the Atlanta Braves, the already small number of third-base openings got smaller. Moustakas didn't do much to change his outlook from a year ago, though this season he isn't attached to a qualifying offer, and his expectations are probably lower after last winter's experience. He's still just 30 years old and resolved some questions about poor defense last season, but he wasn't any better as a hitter. After 38 homers and a 14 percent above league average line as a hitter in 2017, he dropped to 28 homers and just 5 percent above average.

The former Royal and Brewer is a quality player, but he isn't a difference-maker. If Moustakas doesn't find an interested team soon, he might find himself in the same spot next season.

Andrew McCutchen, outfielder: After Bryce Harper, this former MVP is one of just a few premium corner outfielders on the market, along with Michael Brantley, with Nick Markakis and perhaps Adam Jones rating behind them. Being one of just a few options is typically an enviable position, but corner outfielders below the elite level have had trouble getting multiyear deals. Two years ago, Josh Reddick signed early in the winter and received four years, and last offseason Jay Bruce received three years in mid-January, but waiting for better offers could be dicey for McCutchen now that the ability to play center field effectively on a daily basis is off the table.

Waiting until after Bryce Harper signs might seem like a good option, but corner outfielders have been plentiful in the trade market, just like McCutchen last year, and the best contract for a second-tier outfielder might be the first one.

David Robertson, right-handed reliever: Robertson has opted to represent himself this winter, and he finds himself perhaps the second-best relief pitcher available after Craig Kimbrel. Unfortunately for Robertson, he is in a group that includes Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia and Adam Ottavino, leaving teams to pick, choose -- and haggle. Relievers did well last offseason, but the market moved quickly. Signing in the next month might mean the difference between getting a good two- or three-year deal and settling for a single season or two years at a discount. When the market starts moving this winter, Robertson needs to make sure he's part of it.

Lance Lynn, right-handed starting pitcher: Last year, the burly Lynn waited all winter to get a multiyear contract, signed a one-year deal with the Twins and then watched Alex Cobb get $57 million roughly a week later. This season, there are more decent free-agent starters available than there were a year ago, so Lynn's timing isn't any better this year. After Patrick Corbin, free agents include Dallas Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton. Lynn's 3.84 FIP suggests he pitched much better than his 4.77 ERA would indicate, and he performed well for the Yankees down the stretch. But if those other pitchers go off the board before Lynn, he might find it hard to get a multiyear deal.

J.A. Happ, left-handed starting pitcher: Happ has been a consistent performer, averaging 3.1 FanGraphs-blend WAR per season the past four years and never finishing lower than 2.8 fWAR during that time. He also just turned 36 years old, and that's a scary number for any player. Only James Shields qualified for the ERA title last season at 36 years or older, and he didn't pitch particularly well. Happ should be in line for a last multiyear deal, but waiting could cost him as his age causes teams to look elsewhere.

DJ LeMahieu, second baseman: The former Rockie might be the best second baseman available this winter. He's just 30 years old, and his projections are fairly similar to those of Daniel Murphy (34), Jed Lowrie (35) and Brian Dozier (32). Of the second basemen available, he's probably the one most deserving of a three-year deal or more.

But due to the congestion at the position, LeMahieu might have a difficult time later this winter in free agency, after most teams have either filled their vacancies or decided to pursue potentially cheaper alternatives. Because it's not just Murphy, Lowrie and Dozier -- Asdrubal Cabrera, Ian Kinsler and Josh Harrison are also free agents, with Whit Merrifield or even Robinson Cano potentially available in trades. If a team is interested in LeMahieu but moves on, it probably won't circle back with a similar offer, given all the other options.

Yasmani Grandal, catcher: Catcher is a tough position to fill in this league, and as an above-average hitter, Grandal should be in demand. On the other hand, the Braves and Nationals just went to the bargain bin for Kurt Suzuki and Brian McCann, respectively, while the Rays traded for Mike Zunino.

Although his struggles behind the plate in the playoffs might be fresh in the minds of fans, Grandal deserves a multiyear deal, though the qualifying offer could hamper him slightly even if the penalties aren't as severe as they used to be. The Astros, Angels and Red Sox all make a lot of sense for Grandal, so he should have suitors. But many thought the same about Jonathan Lucroy last winter, and he settled for a one-year deal with Oakland.

Nick Markakis, outfielder: The free-agent right fielder looked better in 2018 than he has in a half-dozen years, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts and a batting line that was 14 percent above average. His 2.6 fWAR was his highest total since 2008, when he posted a six-win season for the Orioles. The year was a good one for Markakis and the Braves, but teams have gotten into the habit of paying for future performance and not past production. Markakis is 35 years old, and he was a below-average player for the Braves in the first three years of his contract. He's more likely to be below average once again, but if some team looks at 2018, thinks he can repeat it and gives him a two-year offer, he'd be wise to take it.

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