Ed Rollins: The election day of 2018 will end a mid-term election like no other we've seen. Here is what...
Ed Rollins: The election day of 2018 will end a mid-term election like no other we've seen. Here is what follows.
The elections on Tuesday will end one of the most negative, intense, expensive and unpredictable elections in modern history. We have endured months of negative publicity from wall to wall with automatic calls, text messages, direct mail and everything else so that voters are irritated by the invasion of their privacy and not necessarily informed about their options.
If it were a typical intermediate election, the success of the president's programs, unprecedented unemployment and strong economy would be paramount. The Democrats will try to counteract all that and turn it into a referendum on President Trump. (Historically, the president's party loses seats).
But starting in September, the usual start of an autumn campaign, the nation's attention focused on one of the most ruthless Supreme Court confirmation hearings in history. Millions of Americans saw media coverage without stopping. It was a reality television and the country was polarized by the comment of anchors and political experts who argued points of view without facts.
The audience was fascinated by the drama similar to a soap opera and the Americans were divided over the process and the candidate. The Republicans thought that Brett Kavanaugh was extremely qualified and was being falsely accused; The Democrats believed their accusers despite the lack of evidence and thought that they should be defeated.
Judge Kavanaugh was confirmed before the Supreme Court with a vote of approval of 50-48. The Republicans were enthusiastic about the battle and were angry with the tactics of the Democrats. It temporarily created some momentum in the Republican base that, hopefully, will last until the day of the elections. I guess he did the same with the Democrats.
The next national story that dominated the media and the nation's attention was the assassination attempt with homemade bombs of several prominent Democrats, including former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton; former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; former Attorney General Eric Holder; Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif .; Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla .; and others. The author was a severely disturbed misfit: a minor offender who lived alone in a van in a suburb of South Florida.
Fortunately, due to the excellent efforts of the FBI and other law enforcement officials, the alleged attacker was quickly located and captured. The FBI says the bombs were real, but fortunately they were not unloaded and no one was injured.
Almost at the same time, the shocking and hateful killings of eight members of a Jewish congregation took place in Pittsburgh. They were praying in their Shul one Saturday morning. The killer was another deeply insane, cold-blooded fan who lived a life without incident in the shadows. The innocence of the victims and the stories about the goodness of their lives and facts that we heard after their death, certainly disturbed us all.
The caravan of migrants widely covered in the march towards our southern border has also dominated the media in the last days of the campaign. President Trump has correctly determined that they will not crash at the border and illegally enter the county. If military troops are needed to support the border patrol and executive orders to implement their plans, the president is willing to do everything.
Immigration and border security are priorities for this president and for most of his supporters. Most Democrats are strongly opposed to them and, instead, want to participate in issues such as medical care for all and other traditional social programs.
While all this is happening, thousands of candidates running from coast to coast for local, state and federal offices are having a hard time getting voters to focus on the issues that they I want to run in
This is the strongest economy that any modern president and his party have had for an intermediate election. Most likely, more voters will vote in this midterm election than in any other in modern times. Early voting has already set records and more money will be spent ($ 5.5 billion and counting) than in any other medium term.
Historically, many fewer voters participate in partial examinations than in presidential elections. Participation in 2014, with 37 percent of eligible voters nationwide, was the lowest for an intermediate election since World War II. (By comparison, in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016, participation was around 61 percent).
This will definitely change in this election, with a modern mid-term record of 48.7 percent in 1966 possibly broken.
More women are running and their number will increase both in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. A record 53 women ran for the Senate and 476 applied for the House this year. Two hundred and fifty-seven of them (22 for the Senate and 235 for the House of Representatives) won the nomination of their parties and will be on the ballots on Tuesday.
Although most analysts think that Democrats can withdraw the House (they need a 23-seat turn), there is no certainty until votes are counted on Tuesday night, and perhaps not for several days with potential counts.
The biggest obstacle facing Republicans is that they are defending 41 open seats where members do not run for re-election or run for other positions. They must also defend the 27 seats of the Republicans in the states that Hillary Clinton led in 2016.
This is what I know will happen on Tuesday. More Democrats will be elected to the House of Representatives and the governorates, possibly a majority of each. Republicans must occupy the Senate and can add a seat or two to their current majority. And certainly, they are not yielding to the House at this point.
The president has been an indefatigable activist and will be a factor in the vote of many people. No president has campaigned as aggressively as President Trump, and he has made this choice about himself and his policies.
Former President Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden have campaigned as if they were on the ballot. Obama has tried to rewrite his story. Mrs. Clinton and, to a lesser extent, her husband are trying to remake 2016, or perhaps a practice career by 2020. So are many other potential candidates for 2020, including Oprah and the cast of dozens of people who they die to confront President Trump. They are campaigning everywhere for the Democrats.
There is only one thing sure for Wednesday. President Trump will remain the man of the White House with all his powers intact. The Supreme Court is full and will be conservative for the foreseeable future. The Congress will have many new members, but the hostility between the two parties will be more intense.
The big issues on which both sides have campaigned: immigration reform, border security and tax cuts on the Republican side; Health care, infrastructure and social programs on the Democratic side can not be realized without a bipartisan agreement.
And the 2020 campaigns will start immediately.
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