Climate Change Made Recent Hurricanes Wetter. And They May Get Worse.
Climate Change Made Recent Hurricanes Wetter. And They May Get Worse.
Climate Change Made Recent Hurricanes Wetter. And They May Get Worse.
Some of the biggest storms of recent years were caused by climate change, which increased the amount of torrential rains. Future storms could be even windier, more humid, and potentially more destructive, according to a new study.
The researchers evaluated 15 tropical cyclones (called hurricanes when formed in the Atlantic) of the last decade and then simulated how storms would have occurred during pre-industrial times, before the arrival of recent climate change. They also looked at possible future scenarios, modeling what the storms would look like if they took shape at the end of the 21st century, if the Earth's climate continues to heat up.
Some hurricanes spewed up to 10 percent more rain as a result of climate change, and similar storms in the coming decades could generate 30 percent more rain, the simulations revealed.
The[[In photos: hurricane Maria seen from space]
The findings of the scientists, published online today (November 14) in the nature magazine, paint an instructive image of a future marked by supercharged hurricane seasons.
In the simulations that required millions of hours of computing time, the researchers investigated the role that a climate of warming could play in hurricane winds and rains, considering factors such as greenhouse gas concentrations, humidity and temperature variations in the air and ocean water. They found that the hurricane rain increased in the climate change scenarios, with hurricanes Katrina, Irma and Maria producing about 5 to 10 percent more rain than they could have generated in pre-industrial conditions.
The wind speed for storms in the recent past, on the other hand, would probably have been more or less the same at the time of pre-industrial Earth, according to the study. However, future storms are likely to become windier, with maximum wind speeds increasing to 33 mph (53 km / h). It is also forecast that rainfall will increase in hurricanes by 25 to 30 percent, if current emissions remain uncontrolled, the scientists reported.
Heating oceans They are already recognized as a source of fuel for more intense hurricane seasons. And the evidence that quickly accumulates shows how climate change is directly affecting individual storms. In September, climate change was identified as a contributor. to hurricane florence, with scientists estimating that the storm produced 50 percent more rain than it would have in a pre-industrial world.
"We are already starting to see anthropogenic factors that influence tropical cyclone rain," said the study's lead author, Christina Patricola, a research scientist in the Climate and Ecosystems Sciences Division at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. in a sentence.
"And our simulations clearly indicate that as time goes on we can expect to see an even greater increase in precipitation," Patricola added.
Urbanization poses the risk.
More rainfall during seasonal hurricanes carries a higher risk of flooding in the regions close to the coasts. But the dangers of coastal life can also be intensified by another factor: the human transformation of rural and suburban areas into more urban environments, according to another study, also published today in the magazine. Nature.
Researchers modeled simulations of The rains and floods of Harvey., measuring how Houston could have been affected if the city's urban development had stalled in the 1950s. They discovered that urbanization in Houston made the disastrous impacts of Harvey's hurricane of 2017 even more damaging.
Comparing the simulations with The real impact of Harvey In 2017, scientists discovered that urbanization significantly increased the amount of rain during the storm and also increased the risk of flooding. New buildings in the city changed the airflow over Houston, which led to more precipitation; At the same time, increased coverage of asphalt and concrete is likely to increase the risk of flooding.
In general, the researchers found that urbanization in Houston increased the probability of Harvey's extreme flooding "by approximately 21 times." The authors of the study concluded that both climate modelers and urban planners must address and address the threats facing growing cities that are vulnerable to extreme rainfall.
Originally published in Living science.
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