Both parties win - and lose
Both parties win - and lose
The result of the election feels like the end of a football season in elementary school.
Everyone receives a tape. Everyone leaves with something boasting of a very favorable electoral map allowed the republicans to expand their leadership in the Senate. Their numbers increase from 51, which provides a narrow margin of two seats, to 53 or 54, depending on Arizona, where Republican Martha McSally leads.
For their part, the Democrats will control the House. At the time of publication, Democrats have 229 candidates who win their careers compared to 206 Republicans, with 17 contests yet to be decided. Representative Nancy Pelosi, who is less popular than any other major American political figure, including Mr. Trump, is crazy about her chances of being a speaker again.
Even so, both parties suffered disappointments. Many Democrats rightly feel that their party did not perform as well as expected. Some of them internalized their hatred of Mr. Trump and assumed that everyone shared it. In their minds, the blue wave would be a tsunami for Election Day, causing catastrophic damage to the Republican Party and paving the way for a final victory against its hated leader in 2020.
Similarly, some Republicans entertained themselves with the illusion that a red wave would save them from Mrs. Pelosi's perspective in the speaker's chair. They asked: Who does not want to make America great again? Who could be fed up with everything he earns? The answer: about half of the country.
For both parties, the persuasion was out and inflamed the base. Very little changed. The red became more red and the blue became more blue. And purple? Well, in general it became more blue.
There are lessons to learn. The defeat of Stacey Abrams in the Georgian governor's career undermines the idea that Democrats can win the south while ignoring white moderates. The loss of Andrew Gillum in Florida suggests that an agenda designed for deep blue states is not the right one for purple. The close re-election of Texas Senator Ted Cruz indicates that self-centered ambition and personal improbability can put at stake the patience of even a very conservative electorate. And the fall of Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin is an unfortunate reminder that good guys are also beaten.
Some races remain unresolved as of this writing. Mrs. Abrams is facing a quixotic challenge to the outcome in Peach State; ballots sent by mail will go to the electoral offices for days in Washington, Oregon and California; Maine has a silly voting experiment classified; and in three weeks, Mississippi will hold a second special election for a seat in the Senate (no candidate got 50% on Tuesday, although the two Republicans had a combined 58%).
Both parties end this middle term with major problems to work on. For the Democrats, the political tendencies of the left not only cost them livestock careers but also hardened feelings among middle-class voters that today's Democratic Party, Bernie, Elizabeth and Alexandria, is not for them. Similarly, the complacency of Republicans with respect to desertions among college-educated suburbanites, particularly women, and the decision of the first in a decade of independents not to vote for Republicans in the medium term, could be consigned the Republican Party to a long period in the political desert, if not. careful.
The Democrats could be put in danger by acting hastily in the coming months. Ms. Pelosi knows that Mr. Trump and Judge Brett Kavanaugh will not go anywhere in the Senate and could cost the Democrats the House of Representatives next time. And when former Representative Henry Waxman, a ruthless, energetic and feared chairman of the Supervisory Committee in Bush's final years, warns the new Democratic president against the start of too many investigations, he knows that overreaching could be a problem.
Still, the Trump administration must prepare for the next wave of oversight and research initiatives in Congress and avoid laughter over how Democrats will exaggerate it. The White House will soon recognize that firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions alone creates massive headaches on the Capitol and a confirmation battle that will set an unpleasant tone for 2019.
With the Congress divided, the White House must point to incremental advances in politics. This means initiatives that can be launched without new laws, even if they are not comprehensive. Gridlock harms both parties, but less to the one that offers positive proposals and tries to advance with the least possible political stance.
The president was clever in admitting that the MTR was a referendum on him. If he liked it, he voted for the candidates of the Republican Party. If you did not do it, you voted against them. The problem for Republicans is that more people dislike him, and those who hate him are more energetic than even his fervent supporters.
Both parts are broken and confused. The party that agrees in the next two years will be the one that dominates 2020.
Mr. Rove helped organize the American Crossroads political action committee and is the author of "The Triumph of William McKinley" (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
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