A Russian pivot to Asia?
A Russian pivot to Asia?
In recent years, Russia has been going through quite difficult times. The economic slowdown, a collapse in oil prices and Western sanctions that have deprived Moscow of money and cheap technologies, all this has led Kremlin strategists to focus on the import substitution policy, the reorganization of the chains of supply of imports, the decrease of dependence on oil exports and the push For the pivot of the country towards Asia.
In Moscow's opinion, Asia is a fast-growing alternative to the current West-centered system of international economic and political relations. In addition, the Kremlin sees that this system does not reflect the economic and political realities of today. For this reason, Russia began to invest a great deal of time and effort in building and developing lasting relationships based on mutual respect and interests with partners in Asia.
With Moscow's recent "obsession" with the change to the Asia-Pacific region, there are still doubts that it can do so at the expense of its Western partners. However, it seems that Moscow is trying to sit on two chairs. The Kremlin can not afford to alienate Europe completely, since it is the main economic partner of Russia (with more than 40 percent of the trade) and technology provider. At the same time, Russia is building and developing bridges with Asia, in search of new partners and markets that can potentially diversify its current economic activities.
Since 2015, Russia organizes a clone of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in the Far East of the country, the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), which aims to open new opportunities for Russian companies in the east and for companies Asian In Russia. If one were to compare these two main economic places, it is clear which one is increasingly important. Just look at the high profile guests of both forums. In 2018, the leaders of China, Japan, South Korea and Mongolia participated in the EEF, while SPIEF was attended only by French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Contracts signed during the last EEF. promoted to more than $ 46 billion, while the SPIEF gathered Contracts worth $ 38 billion.
TThe demand for petrochemicals.
The global petrochemicals market is considered the fastest growing and it is expected that increase considerably in the next five years, going from 1,464 million tons per year (mtpa) in 2015 to 1,708 mtpa for 2020 and 1,931.5 mtpa in 2026. In addition to that, according to 2018 BP Energy Outlook It is projected that petrochemical products will be the fastest growing source of demand. Asia is going to be the main driver of that growth, with China as a leader in the largest consumer of petrochemical products.
In Russia, chemical products account for 4.4 percent ($ 19 billion) of all exports. The goods of the industry are the third most exported From the country after minerals and metals. And it seems that the country's industry wants to increase its capabilities.
Seyfeddin Roustamov, a businessman who controls Metafrax, one of the three largest producers of synthetic resins in Europe and the largest producer and exporter of methanol in Russia, said his company plans to to invest More than 950 million euros ($ 1.1 billion) in the construction of a chemical construction complex in Gubakha, located in the Perm region. The facility is planned to produce up to 575,000 tons of carbamide, 308,000 tons of ammonia and 41,000 tons of melamine per year. The project is the company's largest investment in decades.
In October 2017, Metafrax signed a contract for 388 million euros ($ 447 million) with Swiss Casale SA (the world leader in the creation and licensing of its own technologies in the production of ammonia, methanol, carbamide and melamine), which will provide services for project documentation. , technological knowledge, equipment configuration and construction management. This cooperation confirms the dependence of Russian producers on European technology and licensing providers.
That said, 40 percent of Metafrax's revenue comes from exports to the United Kingdom, Finland, Austria, Germany, Switzerland and others. European countries are the largest consumers of the company's products.
In February 2018, the company of Roustamov. settled down SamyangMeta: a joint venture with Korean Sunghong Co., Ltd. to boost its reach to Asia-Pacific. Interestingly, Metafrax also expects to deliver its products to the European market through this joint venture. It seems increasingly an attempt to find alternative ways to increase its presence in Europe.
However, Moscow's attempts to expand into Asian markets in its quest to diversify its choice of economic partners is, in fact, a fairly rational policy given the growth prospects of the Asian market.
However, this effort, although very attractive, seems to be a challenge. Although the Russian economy has been struggling quite successfully with the economic challenges it faces, it still lacks the structural reforms needed to sustain the country's long-term economic development. The "pivot to Asia" policy can not solve all of Russia's economic problems alone, nor will it soften Moscow's confrontation with the West. For this reason, the Kremlin will not develop ties with Asia at the expense of its relations with Europe. You need to find a healthy balance that allows Russia to develop successfully while taking advantage of both worlds.
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