A Decade of Commercial Space Travel - What's Next?

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A Decade of Commercial Space Travel - What's Next?







This article was originally published in The conversation. The publication contributed the article to Space.com's. Voices of experts: Op-Ed & Insights.

		In many industries, a decade is just long enough to cause a dramatic change unless something disruptive comes up: a new technology, a business model or a service design. The space industry has recently been enjoying all three.

		But 10 years ago, none of these innovations was guaranteed. In fact, in September 28, 2008, a whole company observed and expected their flagship product to attempt a final release after three failures. With the cash out, this was the last shot. Finished 21,000 kilograms of kerosene and liquid oxygen. It started and activated two lifting stages from the launchpad.





						


A Soviet technician works at Sputnik 1 before the launch of the satellite on October 4, 1957.

            						    Credit: NASA 


		When that Falcon 1 rocket successfully reached orbit and the company secured a subsequent contract with NASA, SpaceX had survived its 'initial fall'. That milestone, the first liquid fuel rocket developed privately to reach orbit, ignited a new space industry that is changing our world, on this planet and beyond. What has happened in the intervening years and what does it mean to move forward?

		While scientists are busy developing new technologies that address the myriad technical problems of space, there is another segment of researchers, including me, studying the business angle and operational problems facing this new industry. In a recent article, my colleague Christopher Tang Y I Investigate the questions that companies must answer to create a sustainable space industry and make it possible for humans to establish extraterrestrial bases, extract asteroids and extend space travel, while governments play an increasingly small role in financing space companies. We believe that these business solutions may contain the least attractive key to unlock the galaxy.



		The new global space industry.





						


The SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket takes off from Pad 39A at NASA Kennedy Space Center in Florida on February 6, 2018.

            						    Credit: SpaceX 


		When the Soviet Union launched its Sputnik program, putting a satellite into orbit in 1957, they launched a space race driven by international competition and fears of the Cold War. The Soviet Union and the United States played the leading roles, joining a series of "firsts" for the record books. The first chapter of the space race culminated in the historic lunar landing of Apollo 11 by Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin, which required massive public investment, in the order of US $ 25.4 billion, almost $ 200 billion in today's dollars.

		The competition characterized this first part of the history of space. Eventually, that became collaboration, with the International Space Station being a stellar example, as governments worked towards shared goals. Now, we have entered a new phase, the opening, with private and commercial companies that lead the way.

		The industry of launches of satellites and spacecraft is becoming more commercialized, due, in part, to the reduction of government budgets. According to a report by the investment firm Angels of space, a record 120 venture capital companies invested more than $ 3.9 billion in private space companies last year. The space industry is also becoming global, it is no longer dominated by rivals of the Cold War, the United States and the USSR.

		In 2018 to date, there has been 72 orbital launches, an average of two per week, from launch platforms in China, Russia, India, Japan, French Guinea, New Zealand and the United States.

		The increase in the actual orbital launches of rockets, as well as the launches of spacecraft, which include satellites and probes launched from space, coincides with this opening in the last decade.

		More governments, companies and even amateurs participate in several launches of spacecraft than ever before. With more entities involved, innovation has flourished. As Roberson points out in Digital trends, "Private and commercial space flight, including lunar exploration, mining and colonization: suddenly, everything is on the table, which makes the race for space today more vital than it has been in years".





						


World launches into space. Orbital launches include manned and unmanned spacecraft launched into orbital flight from Earth. Spacecraft launches include all vehicles such as spacecraft, satellites and probes launched from Earth or space.

            						    Credit: Wooten, J. and C. Tang (2018) Operations in space, Decision Sciences; Space launch report (Kyle 2017); Encyclopedia of spacecraft (Lafleur 2017), CC BY-ND 


		One can see this vitality clearly in the news. On September 21, Japan announced that two of its unmanned vehicles, called Minerva-II-1, had It landed on a small distant asteroid.. In perspective, the scale of this landing is similar to hitting a 6-centimeter target from 20,000 kilometers away. And earlier this year, people around the world watched in amazement as The SpaceX Falcon heavy rocket was successfully launched. and, most impressively, he returned his two boosters to a landing platform in a synchronized ballet of epic proportions.



		Challenges and opportunities

		In the midst of capital growth, companies and knowledge, both researchers and professionals must discover how entities should manage their daily operations, organize their supply chain and develop sustainable operations in space. This is complicated by the obstacles that space poses: distance, gravity, inhospitable environments and lack of information.

		One of the biggest challenges is to really get the things that people want in space, in space. Making everything on Earth and then launching it with rockets is expensive and restrictive. A company called Made in space takes a different approach by maintaining an additive manufacturing facility on the International Space Station and 3D printing in space. The tools, spare parts and medical devices for the crew can be created upon request. The benefits include greater flexibility and better inventory management at the space station. In addition, certain products can be produced better in space than on Earth, such as pure optical fiber.

		How should companies determine the value of manufacturing in space? Where should capacity be built and how should it be expanded? The following figure divides the origin and destination of goods between Earth and space and organizes the products into quadrants. Humans have dominated the left lower quadrant, made on Earth, for use on Earth. Moving in a clockwise direction from there, each quadrant presents new challenges, for which we have less and less experience.





						


A framework of land-space operations.

            						    Credit: Wooten, J. and C. Tang (2018) Operations in space, Decision Sciences, CC BY-ND 


		The first time I became interested in this particular problem was when I heard a panel of experts in robotics discuss the construction of a colony on Mars (in our third quadrant). You can not build the structures on Earth and send them easily to Mars, so you must make them there. But putting human builders in that extreme environment is equally problematic. Essentially, a completely new mode of production can be required using robots and automation in an advanced shipment.



		Resources in space

		You might wonder where you get the materials to manufacture in space, but in reality there is a abundance of resources: Metals for manufacturing can be found inside asteroids, water for rocket fuel freezes like ice on planets and moons, and rare elements such as helium-3 for energy are embedded in the crust of the moon . If we brought that particular isotope to Earth, we could Eliminate our dependence on fossil fuels..

		As demonstrated by the recent landing of asteroids Minerva-II-1, people are acquiring the technical knowledge to locate and navigate these materials. But extraction and transportation are open questions.

		How do these cases change the economy in the space industry? Already, companies like Planetary resources, Moon Express, Deep space industriesY Asterank They are organizing to address these opportunities. And scholars are beginning to sketch. How to navigate issues of property rights, exploitation and societies..



		Threats from space junk





						


A computer-generated image of objects in Earth orbit that is currently being tracked. Approximately 95 percent of the objects in this illustration are orbital debris, not functional satellites. The points represent the current location of each element. The orbital debris points are scaled according to the size of the graphic image to optimize their visibility and are not scaled to Earth.

            						    Credit: NASA 


		The movie "Gravity" begins with the explosion of a Russian satellite, which triggers a chain reaction of destruction thanks to the debris that collides with a space shuttle, the Hubble telescope and part of the International Space Station. The sequence, although not perfectly plausible as it is written, is a very real phenomenon. In fact, in 2013, a Russian satellite disintegrated when it was hit with fragments of a Chinese satellite that exploded in 2007. Known as the Kessler effect, The danger of more than 500,000 pieces of space debris. It has already attracted attention in public policy circles. How should this risk be prevented, reduced or mitigated? The quantification of the environmental impact of the space industry and the treatment of sustainable operations is still to come.



		Whats Next?

		It is true that space is becoming another place to do business. There are companies that will be responsible for the logistics of obtaining your module for space on board a rocket; there are companies that will fly those rockets to the International Space Station; and there are others who can make a spare part once there.

		What comes next? In a sense, no one knows, but all indications are that this new industry is moving forward. A new advance could alter the speed, but the course seems set: explore further away from home, be it the moon, the asteroids or Mars. It's hard to believe that 10 years ago, the SpaceX releases had not yet been successful. Today, a dynamic private sector consists of dozens of companies working on everything from commercial spacecraft and rocket propulsion to space mining and food production. The next step is to work to consolidate commercial practices and mature the industry.

		Standing in a large room at the University of Pittsburgh as part of the Conference of the frontiers of the white house, I see the future. Wrapped around my head are the latest generation virtual reality glasses. I'm looking at the surface of Mars. Every detail is immediate and clear. This is not just a videogame or a purposeless exercise. The scientific community has invested resources in such efforts because the exploration is preceded by information. And who knows, maybe 10 years from now, someone will be standing on the actual surface of Mars.



	Joel Wooten, Assistant Professor of Management Sciences, University of South Carolina



	This article has been published again. The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the Original article. Follow all the topics and debates of Expert Voices, and be part of the discussion, in Facebook, Twitter Y Google +. The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editor. This version of the article was originally published in Space.com.

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