& # 039; This week & # 039; Transcript 11-4-18: Special edition of ABC News Election HQ
& # 039; This week & # 039; Transcript 11-4-18: Special edition of ABC News Election HQ
Below is an urgent transcript of a special edition of "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" that will air on Sunday, November 4, 2018 on ABC News. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated. To see the transcripts of the previous program, visit "This week" transcript file.
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ANCIAN CHIEF NEWS ABC: Good morning from the headquarters of the ABC News elections. Welcome to a special edition this week.
The race to finish. 48 hours to the end.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is one of the most important choices of our lives.
STEPHANOPOULOS: The final arguments.
MARTHA MCSALLY, CANDIDATE OF THE SENATE OF ARIZONA: We must take energetic action against the sanctuary cities.
BETO O'URRUK, CANDIDATE OF THE SENATE OF TEXAS: Stop the walls of separation.
STACEY ABRAMS, GEORGIA GOVERNMENT CANDIDATE: Georgia can do more, it can be more.
JOSH HAWLEY, CANDIDATE OF MISSOURI SENATE: Everything that voted is at stake.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Political power star.
BARACK OBAMA, 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You can vote for a policy that is decent, for a policy that is honest, for a policy that is legal.
TROMP: The choice in this election could not be simpler.
OPRAH WINFREY, MEDIA MOGUL: You are all on the same precipice as a historical election.
BOB KNIGHT, ANCIENT INDIANA UNIVERSITY HOOSIERS BASKETBALL COACH: Go for it, Donald.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And burning rhetoric.
TRUMP: If you do not want the United States to be invaded by masses of illegal aliens and giant caravans, you'd better vote for the Republicans.
JOE BIDEN, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Let's make it clear, we democrats, we choose hope over fear. We chose the unit over the division.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Republicans betting on the economy and the Kavanaugh effect, Democrats campaigning to control Trump and preserve medical care.
Americans are already voting in record numbers, control of Congress, the presidency of Trump, the future of our country, everything at stake.
This morning, we cover everything, our election team is waiting for us to see the races. In addition to our new survey and the latest FiveThirtyEight election forecast.
ANNOUNCER: From the headquarters of the ABC News election this week. Here now, the main anchor George Stephanopoulos.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Hello, again. You can see that we are broadcasting this morning from our headquarters here in New York. This is where we will be following and analyzing the results when they arrive on Tuesday night. The team is already here, ready to face what is shaping up to be the most important mid-term election in years.
It feels like a presidential election. The Americans are committed. High passions Early voting through the roof and President Trump is campaigning as if he were on the ballot.
In a way he is. If the Democrats win the House of Representatives or the Senate on Tuesday night, Trump will rise with a very different presidency on Wednesday morning.
Our new ABC News / Washington Post poll shows that the president is coming to these midterms with the lowest approval of any president since Harry Truman. It is at 40 percent, with 53 percent disapproving of Trump's performance.
The average approval of the president since its inauguration is the lowest registered. And 59 percent of likely voters say it's important for them to vote for a candidate who shares their opinion of Trump. That's fueling a Democratic lead with 48 hours to go. The House Democratic candidates lead the Republicans by 8 points among likely voters, 52 to 44. But that's less than the 13 points last month.
The Republican base is clearly reactivated after the hearings of Kavanaugh and the Democratic advantage among women, especially independent women, is shrinking.
On the issues, Republicans have an advantage in managing the economy. The Democrats have been advertising in health care, they have an advantage there. And while President Trump trains his fire in that caravan of migrants, our poll shows divided opinions: 47 percent trust Democrats to handle immigration, but voters trust Republicans by a margin of 10 points in security. border.
We have a lot to analyze here with our team. I want to start by bringing our main national affairs correspondent, Tom Llamas. Tom, we will focus on Tuesday on two key numbers, the two numbers that we showed right there, 23 and 2.
The House changes hands if the Democrats pick up 23 seats. In the Senate, the Democrats would need a net gain of two seats to change control. And those races you're going to show are taking place on two very different battlefields. Let's start at the house.
TOM LLAMAS, ABC NEWS HEAD OF CORRESPONDING NATIONAL AFFAIRS: That's right, George. So, we are following the careers of the House, but we have identified more than 100 competitive races of the House. These are the congressional districts, and you can see that they stretch along the map.
What are we seeing here? We are seeing congressional districts that are part of suburbs and suburbs. And we see some clusters in the northeast. We are looking at New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, but we are also looking at some red states: Kentucky, Kansas, Texas and in the blue state of California, we are following almost a dozen races.
We have taken all these competitive races. And we have aligned them in this way in what we call our chip board, align them according to the way the polls are closed.
Remember the key number you were talking about, George, 23, which is the number of seats that Democrats have to invest. And they can have an advantage. Historically, we have never seen such a large Democratic battlefield. And there are a couple of reasons, a quarter of these districts, Hillary Clinton actually won, but Republicans have the power. In others, the Republicans withdrew and, even more, the Democrats are generally enthusiastic about their candidates, George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: The Senate exactly the opposite.
FLAMES: A completely different story in the Senate. Let's take a look at that now. When we turn our battle board here and take a look at all the blue, these are all Democratic seats. We are tracking 35 races. Let's go to the map right now. These are all Senate races. But we have identified 14 key careers.
Remember, George, as he said, Republicans have the advantage of having two seats here, but there are many seats that Democrats have in Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota. This was the Trump country and they have a Democratic senator. But there are some races where Democrats feel they can have an advantage because of Republican retreats, in Tennessee and Arizona. We're going to be watching all those, George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Lot of seats to see. I want to bring Nate Silver, also from FiveThirtyEight. And Nate, your forecast for Tuesday reflects pretty well what we're seeing in those maps. Let's start at the house.
NATE SILVER, EDITOR IN CHIEF, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: Yes, sure. So look who plays the defense and how much defense is playing. So in the House we have Democrats with approximately four out of five chances of winning the House. National polls are pretty good for Democrats. The district polls are - they are very good for Democrats. They are quite deep in the red territory. In the Senate, it's the other way around where we have the Republican Party with a six-in-seven chance of holding us. The Democrats are playing a lot of defense in the states they currently have.
The terrain there is extremely red. So again, polls are not always correct. If the polls are correct, you would have a divided result.
STEPHANOPOULOS: The surveys are not correct and the surveys - the surveys have a wide margin of error. Rick Klein is going to ... our political director. Partly because this race is very difficult to model participation for a midterm election.
RICK KLEIN, POLITICAL NEWS DIRECTOR ABC: That's exactly right. And 52-44, eight points is exactly where the Democrats should be: right at the top of where they should be to be able to say they have a good chance of winning the majority. If you restrict it to the battle districts, you only have a five point advantage. So that's where most will be won or lost. And Democrats depend on groups that do not usually participate in midterm elections. In a nutshell, George, they need you to vote.
We're talking about younger voters, we're talking about non-white voters. At this time, they are telling pollsters that they are likely to vote in unprecedented numbers. But that simply has not been the story. They need those people to appear.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Nate, let's educate the voters a little about the probability because we're all trying to learn the lessons of 2016, I think. By entering the 2016 election, his forecast was actually lower than many others by predicting whether Hillary Clinton would win, about 71 percent. We learned that this was not a sure thing. Here you are about 85 percent of the Democrats who take the House, so simply explain, statistically break down what that means.
SILVER: So, what our forecast represents is the possibility that the surveys are incorrect. And you see how big a party's leadership is and how much uncertainty the forecast exists. The range of results in the house is very broad. Our range, which covers 80 percent of the results, goes from - at the bottom end - around 15 Democratic pickups to 50, 52 or 53. Most of them are above 23, which is how many seats would they need to take the house But like ... but nobody should be surprised if they only win 19 seats.
And nobody should be surprised if they win 51 seats. Both are extremely possible depending on the accuracy of the surveys in the real world.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And one of the big X factors that he's written about this year is, unusually for the midterms, that Democrats have a big advantage in fundraising in the last few days.
SILVER: They have a fundraising advantage and, therefore, one thing we do not know is that there are many districts on the board, where there are Republican holders in positions that are normally safe and may not have noticed. The fact that he has a Democrat who earns twice as much money, his voters are very enthusiastic, could be generating voters who normally do not vote in the middle of the term. So there are many Republicans who will not sleep well tonight and tomorrow night.
And that's why if the Democrats surpass their polls, that can happen, it happened in Virginia in the governor's race last year, so we're talking about really big numbers. Then, both extremes of that rank, the Republicans that hold the House and the D landslide, so to speak. I mean, that's the best we can do according to the accuracy of the surveys in the real world.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Okay, let's expand the conversation a little. One of the other unusual things about this election is the ferocity of President Trump's campaign, both in volume and what he's been talking about in recent days. Here is a little of what he has done in the last three days.
(HOME CLIP VIDEO)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Republicans want strong borders, without drugs, without gangs and we do not want caravans, thanks.
The Democrats are openly encouraging millions of illegal aliens to break our laws, violate our sovereignty, invade our borders and destroy our nation.
There are bad people, as the other said ... they are bad men. There are some bad men in that group.
(END OF VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: the White House chief correspondent, Jon Karl, here with me. The president every day during the last week has done everything possible to focus on the border.
JON KARL, CORRESPONDENT HEAD OF WHITE HOUSE, ABC NEWS: George, with a president who presides over an economy as good as this, I would expect there to be almost a morning in the message of the United States, stay the course, the economic boom, let's continue is. But instead, it's midnight in the United States at Trump's campaign rallies. He is counting on fear and detesting to gather his base. It's a bet. The bet here is that they need the Republicans to be as energized as the Democrats have clearly been. And to a large extent they have done it. You see it in the intensity in our surveys.
80 percent of both parties are saying that they will definitely vote. So you see that it has worked. But the bet here is that it is alienating the independent and moderate voters in the suburban districts where the battlefield of the House of Representatives will be fought. It is a serious risk. They have made their base as energized as they always have been. By going to those rallies, I tell you that you see Trump supporters with more energy than in 2016, but they are alienating many moderates.
STEPHANOPOULOS: In spite of that, Cecilia Vega, that argument many times in disagreement with the facts.
CECILIA VEGA, CORRESPONDENT OF THE SENIOR WHITE HOUSE, ABC NEWS: Actually, in fact we have not only seen a campaign in the last two, three weeks based on fear, but in misinformation and in the propagation of falsehoods.
I am surprised by our survey, the number on immigration, how it is classified in terms of important issues for people. Six of seven topics, which have not changed despite repeated blows from President Trump on this issue.
So it really has the potential to be counterproductive.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Martha Raddatz, one of the things for which the president has not been dissuaded is a kind of rejection of the military. Now that 15,000 soldiers are heading for the border, the cost could be up to $ 200 million by the end of the year.
General Mattis agrees, not so much the former leaders.
MARTHA RADDATZ, CO-ANCHOR, "THIS WEEK": Definitely not some previous leaders, including former Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey trying to stay out of politics, could not help it this week, tweeting our men. and the women in uniform are better trained, better equipped and better directed, so they face any threat with confidence, but a waste of overburdened soldiers and marines would be greatly aggravated if they used disproportionate force to the threat they face, "they won "t
I think it was a kind of look, friends, do not ... do not take out your weapons if people are throwing stones. We hear President Trump talk about it, if there are stone throwers who approach them, they will be seen as firearms.
He retired from that and I have to think that someone like Secretary Mattis got it, those troops will not follow any kind of illegal order, disproportionate force, plus they're back with the concertina.
And that, just as Jon and Cecilia are saying, and you also said it, are those images. He is appealing to that base. There he has soldiers, soldiers and helmets, and armor and concert ropes, those are the images that his base will see and he also believes that the migrants.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Bring Chris Christie, a Republican, former governor of New Jersey, also an ally of Trump. It addresses the ... the argument Jon Karl was making there. Is it prudent to focus on this when you have an economy going?
CHRIS CHRISTIE, OLD GOVERNOR, NEW JERSEY: Well, I think there are two things, I think there is one: there is a real division over who gets credit for the economy among some voters.
But secondly, George, I think you have made a strategic decision, which is that the House of Representatives is much more difficult for them than the Senate. They have a group of red state democrats who want to try to get out of the Senate.
And I think what he's seeing with the president is that he made the strategic decision that his ability to win on the night of the election will add seats in the United States Senate.
And he does not want to run the risk of looking like he's doing it, working too hard in the House of Representatives, because then he can be blamed for losing there.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You started saying that, but this is really being driven by him, is not it?
CHRISTIE: Well, George, as I have told you many times in the last nine or ten months, is your own strategist and does not listen to other people in general in terms of political strategy.
And you see this by getting involved in the Republican primaries earlier this year, something that would rarely be seen by presidents. He has been involved in many of them, and many of the candidates we have today on the ballot are due to the direct intervention of the president.
So he's his own strategist, so when I say I'm using royalty,
STEPHANOPOULOS: The real ones. Donna Brazile, one of the things that we are seeing, taking up what Chris was saying about the strategy of the Senate, is the Democratic candidate to the Senate, candidates like Claire McCaskill, who are aligned with the president in this matter of immigration.
DONNA BRAZILE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGY AND OLD PRESIDENT, NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE: There is no doubt that she faces an uphill battle in Missouri, a state that Donald Trump claimed.
But you know, George, if the Democrats win on Tuesday, it's because they're campaigning for hope, they're focusing on health, and they're also trying to overcome the odds in these midterm elections by trying to encourage independents and millennials come to - come to the polls
We see an increase in what we call infrequent voters who are now more committed, are more positive about voting, that is a sign for the Democrats.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But, you know, that's the hope with the early vote of the Democrats, Matthew Dowd, but one of the things we saw in 2016 is that those voters did not show up, in particular Latino voters did not vote in - in numbers higher despite the president's rhetoric on immigration.
MATTHEW DOWD, POLITICAL ANALYST, ABC NEWS: Well, I think that this election, like Trump's (like the one), President Trump's presidency has a set of unique characteristics in the medium term.
Our survey: just to re-touch our survey, our survey looks a lot like 2006. In 2006, the ABC poll said the Democrats had a six-point lead, they won by eight points. George Bush's job approval rating was almost exactly where Donald Trump is today.
But there are unique circumstances, we have never had a president participate in an election with an economy like this with a job approval in the low 40. We have never had that before, and we have never had a choice in which both parties have been motivated .
Almost always one side is more motivated than the other.
STEPHANOPOULOS: I want to - I want to go back to that, I also bring this to Jon Karl, because I remember 1994 very well. President Clinton did not go out and did a lot of campaigning in the last days.
The Democratic base was depressed. This is what is different about this election this time, in an election out of the year, Republicans are committed. They do not seem to be staying at home.
KARL: No, and if you come back, if you come back before Kavanaugh, there was a real concern among the Republicans that they were just not so energized. And the idea, driven by the president but also by some of his political advisors, is that you had to find a way to get the base that turned out in 2016 to get irritated and go on fire to vote this time. So the president has thrown himself straight into this, I mean, he's out there non-stop.
But George, to the point of the House, is not even touching any of the areas with - with - the districts of the Comparative House ...
STEPHANOPOULOS: Because they do not want it there.
KARL: ... No. They do not want it there. He is not going to go there. He is campaigning only in the final stretch in the states he won, campaigning in the areas of the states where he is popular.
CHRISTIE: George, let me say this; I think if we look forward to Tuesday night, two places to look, that's the kind of night it will be, it's the Florida Senate race and the Wisconsin governor's race. In the race for the Florida Senate, you have a two-term governor against a long-time incumbent, Bill Nelson, against Rick Scott. And in Wisconsin you have a very narrow governor career, Scott Walker is looking for a third term, the fourth time he has been running for eight years. It will tell us a lot about voters, how they feel about politicians.
And in those states that were so important for the presidential elections, let's see what happens there in terms of the republican intensity that you're talking about. If Scott and Walker win, I think it will be a decent night for Republicans.
STEPHANOPOULOS: They are very different.
But Matthew Dowd, you make a - you - have been talking about the fact that we have not paid enough attention to the races of the governors now, the huge potential that there are many twists for the Democrats in - in - - in the races of the governors and that could have a much greater long-term impact.
MATTHEW DOWD, POLITICAL ANALYST OF ABC NEWS: Yes. I mean, obviously, we all are: everyone in the United States is concerned about who will be the owner of the House, who will be the Senate head. But really fundamentally, when you look at politics in the future as we have done in the last 20 or 30 years, it is the races of the governors and the races of the governors in the purple states.
For me, it's the governor; is where Republicans have held office, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, there is a great chance that they will lose in all those places. And when they lose in those places, it not only affects what happens today, but it also affects what can happen in the 2020 presidency, it affects the redistricting of districts, which are then drawn by the districts, which then continues. So for me it is, yes, we have two important things to see, the House of Representatives and the Senate, but for me, what will really impact what will really impact what is progressing is the careers of the governors in the purple states.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And, and not only in the purple states, Donna Brazile, but would everyone see the possibility of having the first African-American governors of Florida and Georgia?
DONNA BRAZILE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGY AND ANCIENT PRESIDENT, NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE: George, it will be a historic night. In addition to Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Ben Jealous, in the great state of Maryland, candidates for African American lieutenant governor in several states, including Wisconsin and Illinois, 42 percent of all Democratic nominees this fall. Both Senate and House candidates are women, so a Democratic wave depends on women going out to vote, minorities and other infrequent voters.
CHRISTIE: And George, I was president of RGA for four years in the middle of the period, the map has been ...
STEPHANOPOULOS: You said the Republican Governors Association.
CHRISTIE: ... Yes, the Republican Governors Association, as bad as the map for Democrats on the Senate side, is so bad for Republicans on the side of the governors, of the 36 races of governors, 26 are Republican defenses .
STEPHANOPOULOS: And - and - and you, of course, were governor. Explain what that means in a presidential year for a governor of your state to be in charge.
CHRISTIE: It is - is - you control the political apparatus in your state. You control who counts the votes, most of the time who is the secretary of state or the head of elections. And from there, you control the redistricting after the census or at least you have a big influence on it.
So, as Matthew said very aptly, it is not only what will happen tomorrow, but what will happen in 2021 and 2022 in the redistribution of these seats of the House, which will have a big difference. That has been the great advantage of the Republicans, '09 and '10, setting the stage for a Republican decade.
DOWD: And, and keep in mind that the president is the president today because he won three states in those purple states in the Midwest for less than 100,000 votes. And the probability that each of them has an ether is a small blue wave or a big blue wave is very high. The Pennsylvania Republicans have no chance, Michigan looks like the Democrat is going to win the governor's race and Wisconsin is a very closed race, but it relies on Democratic favor, which is where the president won the presidency.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Martha Raddatz - Matt Dowd just talked about Pennsylvania. You spent a lot of time with the voters there in the state of Pennsylvania. That's one of the places where Democrats hope to get one - a raft of seats in the House.
RADDATZ: Exactly. And when, when you talk to voters in Pennsylvania, especially in those suburbs and some of those who voted for Donald Trump, he has gone too far for many of them. There it is, there ... they are too divisive for them. For them, Donald Trump is absolutely the problem.
STEPHANOPOULOS: He is the problem. And we are likely to see changes also with very changing faces, Cecilia Vega, in Congress, regardless of what happens on Tuesday night, a record number of women running for the House.
CECILIA VEGA, CORRESPONDING TO THE SENIOR WHITE HOUSE OF ABC: Record number of women, record number of LGBT candidates - LGBTQ candidates, Donna has just mentioned the record number of African-Americans that are presented. But, I mean, we can focus on the president's travels in the last few weeks and that tells us a lot about where he's looking, just to go back to Matthew's comments about Florida. He went to Florida twice in the last week. He is very concerned about having to win that state, not only for now, but also by 2020.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Everyone waiting, we'll be back. But then the party leaders are going to present their final arguments. The president of RNC, Ronna McDaniel, and the president of the Campaign of the Democratic Senate, Senator Chris Van Hollen.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(HOME CLIP VIDEO)
TRUMP: They will try to erase our profits and eradicate our progress, that is what will happen. They are going to work hard and we will be fighting. It will be - it will be ridiculous, frankly, it will be bad for our country. The democrats. And it could happen. Could occur. We are doing very well and we are doing very well in the Senate. But it could happen.
And you know what you do? All my life. You know what I'm saying, do not worry about that. I will only solve it. Makes sense? I will only solve it.
(END OF VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: President Trump in West Virginia this week.
He now joins the president of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel. Ronna, thank you for joining us this morning.
Unusually, a moderate president there, almost resigned, seems, to lose the House. It's you?
RONNA MCDANIEL, PRESIDENT, REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE: Absolutely not, especially with the economic figures we saw on Friday with 250,000 jobs added to the economy, with salaries of more than 3 percent for the first time in a decade. I mean, American voters are looking at what happened in the last two years. They are making more money. More jobs are coming back. That is a great closing argument in many of these Casas races that are within the margin of error.
And they will say that the Republicans have offered a record of results and the Democrats are offering resistance and coming back. I think it's pretty clear.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You say it says it's a great final argument. How is it that the president is not achieving it?
MCDANIEL: He is. He is talking about many different things that he has achieved as president, because the list is very long. I think you are highlighting the fact that we need immigration reform. The Democrats do not come close to that, they strengthen our military, they take care of our veterans, they assume the opioid crisis. The national security problems he has assumed, North Korea, Iran, Syria, all the things he has achieved in these first two years.
But the economy is a driving force with tax cuts and deregulation. The lives of people are better. Se están llevando a casa más dinero para gastar en sus familias y ese es un argumento muy convincente para muchos de estos votantes en todo el país que están buscando a quiénes quieren mantener en la mayoría, y los republicanos son el partido que se entrega.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Así que quieres, quieres que los votantes se centren en la economía el martes. El presidente todos los días durante la última semana ha hablado sobre inmigración, hable sobre enviar tropas, hable sobre la caravana de migrantes, hablo sobre ciudadanía por derecho de nacimiento, incluso ha twitteado ese anuncio. No vamos a jugar todo el anuncio, pero vamos a mostrar que el anuncio publicado por el presidente sobre la inmigración ilegal, que muestra al inmigrante ilegal que cometió el asesinato, culpa a los demócratas. Eso ha provocado que incluso algunos republicanos reaccionen.
John Kasich, gobernador republicano de Ohio, tuiteó: "la política del miedo, el odio y la división no debería tener lugar en nuestro país ni en el Partido Republicano, y mucho menos en la presidencia. Todos los estadounidenses deberían rechazar este anuncio y sus motivos". You do?
MCDANIEL: Bueno, creo que el presidente está destacando un fallo en nuestro sistema de inmigración, que esta persona asquerosa entró dos veces en nuestro país con un demócrata y un presidente republicano y que pudo asesinar a la policía.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Lo culpó solo a los demócratas.
MCDANIEL: No queremos eso en nuestro sistema de inmigración.
Obviamente, reconocemos que tenemos una política de inmigración rota ahora en este país con estas caravanas que vienen a nuestro país, con 12,000 niños que han venido sin compañía, que vienen solos, porque sus padres desean desesperadamente entrar en esto.
país.
Sé por qué quieren llegar aquí, nuestra economía lo está haciendo muy bien. Tenemos muchos trabajos. Y el presidente ha dicho, vamos a conseguir una inmigración basada en méritos. Centrémonos en eliminar el sistema de lotería de visas, algo que Canadá no hace, y fortalezcamos nuestra frontera. Y los demócratas, una vez más, no vendrán a la mesa en un tema importante, como la inmigración. No vinieron a la mesa sobre estos recortes de impuestos. No vinieron a la mesa con este presidente para nada, porque se negaron a trabajar con él. Y está cerrando con el argumento de que somos el partido de los resultados y ellos son el partido de la resistencia.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Por supuesto, también hay división en el Partido Republicano en materia de inmigración. Pero a usted no le preocupa la posibilidad, como mencionábamos antes en el programa, de que el presidente está centrado en la inmigración, los anuncios de este tipo causarán una reacción violenta en los distritos suburbanos que necesita mantener, con el fin de mantener la casa?
MCDANIELS: Estoy con el presidente en estos mítines. El presidente está hablando de todos los logros. Creo que los medios se enfocan constantemente en la inmigración, y lo entiendo. Pero se está enfocando en la economía, está hablando de los empleos. He's talking about the lowest unemployment in history for the African-American and Hispanic communities and that our country is on a great comeback and the fact that Nancy Pelosi has said she's going to raise taxes.
And the president recognizes the historical trends with the House and the Senate. Usually the party that holds the White House loses three seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the House, and he's doing everything he can to turn out every vote with his exhaustive schedule, but it is a whole variety of issues that he's talking about and accomplishments that he's made as president that have made our country stronger, more prosperous, safer, and has given the American people more jobs, more money and a comeback that frankly a lot of Democrats didn’t think was possible and they certainly didn’t help with.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Chairman McDaniel, you -- you blame the media but it’s the president himself who said he wants the election to be about the caravan.
MCDANIEL: The president has not said he wants it to be just about the caravan. The president’s saying let’s look at the record. Are you better off than you were two years? He’s talking about the economy. It’s just not getting the same coverage. I mean, the economy should be, first and foremost, on a lot of people’s minds as they’re going to the polls. Because remember, President Obama said we’ll never get above 2 percent GDP. And now we’re at 3.5 percent GDP, over 4 percent in some cases.
We’ve seen 4 million people go off of food stamps. We’ve seen 4 million new jobs come to this country. There’s a lot of good things to talk about. The president’s talking about it. He’s talking about a lot of other things. You know, he can walk and chew gum at the same time.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Where do the House and Senate stand Wednesday morning?
MCDANIEL: It’s tight, George. It’s tight. It’s going to depend on voter turnout on election day. Democrat enthusiasm is definitely there. We are seeing that in the early voting, in all of these key House and Senate races and Republicans have been matching. So literally election day voting is going to determine the balance of the House. I’d say there’s about 27 seats within the margin of error. Obviously we have had headwinds with 44 retirements and historical trends on the House, but I feel like we can still keep that majority and then the Senate is a better map.
And if we keep the Senate, that will be defying history as well, because usually you lose three seats in that first term of a first term president.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Ronna McDaniel, thanks very much.
Now we’re going to bring in the chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland. Senator Van Hollen, thank you for joining us this morning. You just heard the predictions there from Ronna McDaniel. It is true that your Democratic senators are up against the wall on Tuesday. Are you -- are you confident that you can take the Senate?
SEN. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D), CHAIR, DEMOCRATIC SENATORIAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE: Well George, it’s great to be with you. Here’s where we are. We have lots of races within the margin of error, so I’m not going to make any predictions. What I can say is that as you discussed earlier on this program, Senate Democrats really face the toughest political map in 60 years, so it’s remarkable that we’re in as strong a position as we are. And that is a testament to our senators and to our Senate Democratic candidates who are running as candidates who are going to stand up for their states, that their job is to put politics aside, stand up for their states.
Sometimes that means working with President Trump if it’s good for their state and sometimes it means opposing the president if it’s bad for their state, like the president’s effort and Republican effort to take away protections for people with preexisting health conditions, a big issue in all these races.
STEPHANOPOULOS: That is a big issue in all these races. You have seen, as you said, your Democratic Senator Brian Donnelly in Indiana is advertising about how much he’s supporting President Trump. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota has done the same thing. But seems to be -- especially Heitkamp in North Dakota -- punished for the Kavanaugh nomination, how Democrats handled the Kavanaugh nomination. Any regrets?
VAN HOLLEN: Well first of all, never count Heidi Heitkamp out. In her last election six years ago, she was 10 points down with a week to go. It’s much closer than that in North Dakota. Don’t count her out. The reality is that Heidi Heitkamp did as she always does, what she thought was the best thing for the country. Sometimes that means supporting the president on issues, as she did with the earlier Justice Gorsuch, and sometimes that means opposing the president on these issues.
STEPHANOPOULOS: How about Bob Menendez in New Jersey? It’s a race we haven’t talked too much about. Of course he was indicted, later acquitted on corruption issues. But he -- he does seem to be in a tighter race in New Jersey than you would expect. Are you confident he’s going to pull it out or are you concerned that he may be holding back Democratic House candidates?
VAN HOLLEN: I’m absolutely confident that Bob Menendez will win that race. The people of New Jersey have been very clear. They do not want a rubber stamp for Donald Trump, and that is what Bob Menendez’s opponent has -- has done and will do. And his opponent has spent $30 million of -- of money that he gained as a CEO of -- of a pharmaceutical company where he really gouged on prices for cancer patients. So that’s why you have a competitive race in New Jersey. Obviously there are other issues Bob Menendez has to litigate, but people in New Jersey do not want a Donald Trump rubber stamp.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Democrats hoping they can pick up seats in Nevada and Arizona. One of the big X factors there is will Latinos turn out to vote. Will they?
VAN HOLLEN: Yes, they will. And we’re already seeing the early voting results in those states, and you are seeing a good, healthy turnout among Latino voters, as well as younger voters. And you’re seeing a pattern of good turnout for Democrats and independents who are supporting Democratic candidates around the country, George. And again, that issue that has been front and center for the last two years, the Republican efforts to take away important healthcare protections is one that Senate Republican candidates have been running away from their records on. And we’re making sure that people know exactly what they -- they did, which was vote either in the Congress, the Senate, or through lawsuits to take away those protections for people with preexisting conditions.
And I’ll also say that the Republican Senate leader’s comments the other day about the Republican plan to cut Medicare and Social Security gives away their playbook. The debt went way up to $2 trillion as a result of the tax cut for big corporations. Now they want to come back and take it out on people who have Medicare and Social Security.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Are you prepared for a world Wednesday where Republicans pick up seats in the Senate?
VAN HOLLEN: George, we’re prepared for whatever result we have. But let me just say that the fact that we still have a narrow path to a majority is a sea change from where we were 18 months ago. And as I said, it’s because our candidates have always said they’ll stand up for their states, first and foremost; put aside the politics, do what’s right. And we’re seeing the results here. These are some very close races. And of course, they’re in states that Donald Trump won big. And it’s a testament to these candidates that they’re so focused on what matters to people in their state.
When it comes to healthcare, that is not a top-down issue. It’s not like, you know, President Trump going out there and talking about immigration and trying to divide people. And by the way, we’ve just seen a litany of documented false statements and lies from the president on that issue.
But on the healthcare issue, this is a bottom-up issue. When Republicans tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act, you found people in rural areas, in rural hospitals say no. You found the American Cancer Society, the American Diabetes Association, all these local chapters who have nothing to do with politics, said, “Don’t take away our protections for healthcare.”
And yet Republicans continue to try to do that.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Senator Chris Van Hollen, thanks very much.
VAN HOLLEN: Thank you.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We’ll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DEBORAH ROBERTS, JOURNALIST, ABC NEWS: You talked about all the votes, what about voter suppression? People are saying that minority votes –
BRIAN KEMP (R), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE, GEORGIA: Well that’s a – that’s a myth. That is a myth that – that the Democrats bring out every two years. We have record number of people on our voting rolls.
ROBERTS: So what do you say to people who say that you’re trying to suppress the vote? What do you say?
KEMP: I’m not trying to suppress – the numbers don’t lie about that fact. Minority participation is up 23 percent in Georgia, 23 percent. That’s what you should report, and not believe the B.S. about voter suppression.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Republican candidate for governor in Georgia Brian Kemp there talking to our Deb Roberts.
I want to bring in our Chief Justice Correspondent Pierre Thomas for more on this whole issue of voting rights, voter suppression, and access to the ballot. You just heard Brian Kemp call it a myth there, but we're looking at this issue in several key states.
PIERRE THOMAS, ABC NEWS CHIEF JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Right, Georgia is one of them.
There are about 50,000 votes that we have been paying attention to where there's some question as regard to voter registration, how it compares to other government records. There are about 50,000 people, 70 percent of those are African-American, so some people are very concerned about that.
Now, those people should be able to vote on Election Day if they show up with their proper ID. But it will depend on how the polling stations deal with those individual voters, George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You have also got a serious issue in the state of North Dakota.
THOMAS: Exactly, that’s very interesting. In that state, you have to have a-- show a proof of
residency when you vote. So, many of the Native Americans who live on reservations, they haven't had that -- those type of addresses. So, they've been scrambling in recent weeks trying to get specific addresses so they can show, again, it will depend on how each polling station deals with them when they come in to vote.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Connected to this issue, the whole issue of ballot security, so many concerns about the possibility of hacking into the election systems this year. Several Senate candidates have said they have been hacked. What's the state of ballot security looking ahead to Tuesday?
THOMAS: There's good news and bad news. Here's the good news, we're not seeing the level of Russian activity that we saw in 2016. Certainly nothing on the scale of hacking the DNC or the Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta.
But you still see, according to some sources, the Russians trying to affect the campaign through
social media, putting out bad information, trying to sow seeds of division among Americans about issues of race, immigration and things like that.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And the big social media companies, like Facebook, still haven't quite figured out how to deal with it.
THOMAS: They say they're trying harder. The issue of finding these accounts which are pushing out this information. Facebook, in fact, talked about how they set up a war room. They have got about 20,000 employees that they said are working on this. Twitter said they have identified thousands of people, thousands of accounts in which people were trying to sow disinformation, they have taken down those accounts. We're talking millions of these accounts, so it's an ongoing threat.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And you'll be tracking these issues all through the night Tuesday. Pierre Thomas, thanks very much.
What happens the day after election day? Mary Bruce joins us from Capitol Hill and how Democrats plan to take on Trump if they win the House. We'll be right back with that and our roundtable.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Nate Silver, super model right there, for FiveThirtyEight.
I want to talk now about the day after the election. I want to bring in our Chief Congressional Correspondent Mary Bruce for more on this. We don't know what is going to happen Tuesday night, Mary, but Democrats hopeful they'll take control of the House.
Talk about their plans if that happens.
MARY BRUCE, ABC NEWS SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, George, if Democrats do take the House, they are going to put the Trump administration under an intense microscope. They are likely to launch investigations into everything from conflicts of interests to the president's tax returns and of course the issue of Russian collusion.
Democrats feel that this administration has been able to act unchecked, and that is likely to come to a screeching halt.
But there is a political risk here for Democrats. They're going to have to show that they can legislate, not just investigate. So, first up, expect them to pass something to address the issue of corruption in government. Democrats are well aware that Americans are fed up with Washington. And they're going to want to send a message that there's a new sheriff here in town.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And if Republicans hold the House?
BRUCE: If Republicans hold the House then, George, you're going to see more of the same. Congress will continue to act in the way that they have.
But there is no big push, no big rush of legislation at the ready; no immigration bill, no big tax plan standing in the wing here. While Republicans are running on these issues, there is no big legislative push right now, here to back all of that up.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And on the Republican side, if the Republicans hold the House, likely to see a pretty serious fight for leader, to be speaker of the House.
BRUCE: Yeah, absolutely. Paul Ryan, of course, has already said that he is out. You are then going to see a huge fight to replace Paul Ryan, lots of names being floated; Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise. And of course some of those on the far-right of the caucus, like Jim Jordan, those from the Freedom Caucus. A lot of names here that are going to be fighting to be Speaker of the House if Republicans do take the House.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And if Democrats take the House, no guarantee that Nancy Pelosi will be the House Speaker.
BRUCE: No, George. Look, whether or not Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker will depend in large part upon the size of any Democratic majority and the makeup of a Democratic caucus. Lots of Democratic candidates have already said that they will not support Pelosi. And you’re going to see, likely, a lot of calls for some new blood in Democratic leadership. That said, Pelosi has a lot of experience, she knows how to pass bills, and she certainly will know how to wrangle a diverse caucus as they launch all of these investigations.
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK, Mary Bruce, thanks very much. Back here with our analysts, I want to get to what we’re watching on Tuesday night. But first, I want to do a couple questions for Donna and Chris. Donna, first, on that question I just posed to Mary Bruce. What – what – how big a margin do the Democrats need for Nancy Pelosi to be guaranteed that she’ll be the Speaker?
BRAZILE: First of all, Nancy Pelosi’s probably one of the best whip counters in the Democratic caucus. So I wouldn’t throw her under the bus right now because she knows how to win, she’s raised over $130 million for Democrats across the country. One of the reasons why we have a diverse lineup of candidates is because Nancy Pelosi went out there and encouraged those candidates to run.
So I see Nancy Pelosi – I mean, she’s going to fight like hell. There is a call for new blood, more people in the leadership. And just remember, George, 15 percent to 25 percent of those newly elected Democrats, they will look for someone who can carry the mantle for them in 2020 and beyond.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And Chris, for the White House, a House with subpoena power is a brand-new ball game.
CHRISTIE: Oh, yes.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Is the White House braced for that, are they ready for it, are they prepared?
CHRISTIE: Well, they’re getting a new White House counsel who should be in place in time for January. And if it’s a Democratic House, it’s very well it could be their main job is going to be to be a subpoena processor over at the White House. And I think Mary was right, though, that there is real political risk in that as well. We saw that happen with the Republican House and Bill Clinton in the ‘90s.
You go too aggressive in that regard, it can be a backlash against those people. So that’s what I think, and by the way, every dollar I have in my pocket, if they win the House, Nancy Pelosi’s going to be Speaker. Sharpest elbows, best counter, she is going to be the Speaker. Everything else is pretend.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We are all going to be here on Tuesday night, want to get everybody’s take on what they’re going to be watching for. Martha, let me start with you. What’s the big thing you’re going to be watching Tuesday night?
RADDATZ: Well, I think I’m even going beyond Tuesday night. I think one of the things we’ve watched Tuesday night is not whether the Democrats gain control of the House but it’s also how people campaign, and what this has meant about these incendiary ads. That’s a lesson that everybody will learn going forward, not just to 2020, but beyond. Is this the kind of fear-mongering that works? If it does, you’ll see a lot more of it.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Jon Karl?
KARL: I’m going to be watching Pennsylvania. Polls close at 8 o’clock so we’ll see relatively early. Trump won the state by 44,000 votes. It was a key reason that he is president and the Republicans could lose up to eight seats in the state of Pennsylvania. They’re almost certain to lose two because of redistricting. How they do between that margin, I think, will determine largely where we go in the rest of the midterms.
STEPHANOPOULOS: On the House?
VEGA: I’ve got my eyes on the suburbs all around this country, looking at places like the seventh congressional district in Virginia where you’ve got a female newcomer, Abigail Spanberger running and– looking to unseat a third-term Republican there. Will there be a so-called ‘Pink Wave’ with someone like this ushering out a Trump supporter in a – in a Trump district? We will see.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Matthew Dowd?
DOWD: I’m watching independents. And that’s going to determine who wins this and all of the races across the country. It’s why Donald Trump’s President of the United States. And a specific race that I think people should be aware of is the Beto O’Rourke-Ted Cruz race in Texas. That race is a lot closer than people think and I talked to a number of Republicans over the last 48 hours. They’re very concerned, the first time they’ve been concerned that they could possibly lose a statewide race in Texas in 20 years.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, this gives us an opportunity to talk about the early vote. Just saw this come in overnight. Already, more people have voted in the state of Texas – what, we’re two days out from the vote, than voted in the entire 2014…
DOWD: Entire 2014. And they’re thinking that there’s going to be more than 7 million people vote in this election in Texas, which is almost a presidential year election return. And most of the growth in those – is new people, young people, and Latinos.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Beto O’Rourke wins in Texas, he’s automatically near the top of the pack for 2020.
DOWD: He’s already a rockstar, he becomes the biggest rockstar in the country.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Donna Brazile?
BRAZILE: Of course, I’m looking at the Oprah effect. I’m watching Georgia, it’s on my mind. As a daughter of the South, I’m very proud of Stacey Abrams, the kind of campaign that she’s run..
She’s finishing up her campaign on education. I want to see her win, I want to see her win decisively and I’m also watching the other states as well, including Florida.
STEPHANOPOULOS: There’s another – there’s another race in Georgia though, if – if Stacey Abrams does well, first of all we should that if neither she nor Brian Kemp get 50 percent there’s a run off in the state of Georgia.
Secondly, does she have the strength to carry in Lucy McBath, another key Senate race?
BRAZILE: I think so –
STEPHANOPOULOS: I mean House race.
BRAZILE: Oh, absolutely, look she has done something that I think Democrats should have done a long time ago. That is she’s expanded the electorate, she has campaigned in rural areas like Doug Wilder who won back in 1989.
Stacey Abrams understood that in order to win, you had to bring a new energy in the party, and she’s done that.
CHRISTIE: Florida and Wisconsin, as I said before, are going to be key to watch. And who’s had a good night and a bad night from the parties. If you see the Oklahoma governorship go to the Democrats, it’s going to be a very bad night for Republicans.
If you see the United States Senate seat in New Jersey go to the Republicans, it’s going to be a very bad night for Senate Democrats.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And Nate Silver, you’re going to be adjusting your forecast all through the evening as we get real results coming in. Give us a sense of what you’re going to be keeping an eye on early in the night.
NATE SILVER, EDITOR IN CHIEF, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: So to me, you have a two part election, you have the north and the south. We expect that Democrats are going to gain a lot of seats here in the Northeast, in Pennsylvania for example we expect they’ll do very well in governorships in the – in the Midwest.
If they’re going to have a really good night, where it’ll really put the Senate in play, they’re going to have to win places in the South, they’re going to have to win Tennessee or Texas, at least one of those, probably they’re going to have to hold in Florida.
They’re going to have to put these suburban Atlanta districts in play in the House. That’s when you get a margin that might win 35 or 40, and where the Senate might actually get interesting, it might be because of a race like Texas.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Rick Klein, you’re going to be behind the scenes on – on Tuesday night, and we’ve all are trying to learn the lessons of the last couple of elections as we forecast on Tuesday night, as we cover the races on Tuesday.
We’ve had some bad exit polls, the 2004 election, 2016 as well. Talk about how we’re going to communicate with voters last-- during the night and – and with our decision desk.
RICK KLEIN, POLITICAL DIRECTOR, ABC NEWS: We don’t know what we don’t know, and we’re going to be as transparent as possible about why we’re not comfortable in a particular race.
We’re going to provide information throughout the night about where vote is still outstanding, where things look, relying on everyone here on this set and beyond to try to convey the true uncertainty of an unprecedented election.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Jon Karl, you’ve said several times we have to be prepared to be surprised on Tuesday.
KARL: Yeah, I will be surprised if I’m not surprised, George. And I could see getting to – to Nate’s range of events, I could see us being surprised by a much bigger blue wave than – than we’ve anticipated.
I could – I would also not be surprised if we see the Republicans do surprisingly well. I mean we just don’t know, it’s so much harder to poll in – in a midterm election, it’s so much harder to poll in these House races.
We just don’t know. And intensity is so high, that also adds to the uncertainty.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And it is also why it is going to be so exciting --
KARL: Yes, it’s going to be a great night.
STEPHANOPOULOS: -- on – on Tuesday night. We’re looking forward to having all of you here with us on Tuesday night, looking forward to talking to all of you as well. That is all for us today.
Thanks for sharing part of your Sunday with us. We’re all going to be back here as I said on Tuesday night, I’ll be anchoring our midterm election special, analysis from our whole political team.
We are going to have reporters all across the country in the key states all through the night until we have a result. It starts at 8:00 Eastern and I’ll see you tomorrow on “GMA”.
END
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