Why could life expectancy in 2040 be lower than it is today?
Why could life expectancy in 2040 be lower than it is today?
Life expectancy will be, on average, 4.4 years higher for both women and men worldwide by 2040.
(iStock)How healthy will the world be in 2040?
If things continue as they are now, the answer is better than we are today: life expectancy will be, on average, 4.4 years higher for both women and men around the world by 2040. That's according to a new report published today (October 16) in the magazine. The lancet. However, according to the authors, the public health decisions and the political decisions that we made (or stopped taking) could mark us in several ways, the worst of which could reduce life expectancy in almost half of the countries of the world .
In the report, researchers created a model that projects health outcomes and the leading causes of death by 2040 in 195 countries and territories. The model was based on a previous study that analyzed these factors in global populations between 1990 and 2016.
The[[Extending life: 7 ways to live more than 100]The model was also taken into account in 79 health "factors", such as smoking, body mass index, drinking water and good sanitation conditions, along with other variables, such as fertility measurements, income and The education. Then, the researchers added numbers to predict three different scenarios: a "more likely" forecast, a "better health" scenario, and a "worse health" scenario.
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If things continue at a good pace, as modeled in the "most likely" scenario, the eight leading causes of early death in 2040 are expected to be ischemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (a lung disease that blocks the flow of air), chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes and road injuries.
In this scenario, life expectancy in the United States is projected to be 79.8 years in 2040, only 1.1 years longer than the 2016 estimate, the researchers found. However, other parts of the world would see major improvements; For example, life expectancy in Syria is expected to increase from 68.2 years in 2016 to 78.6 years in 2040, and in Equatorial Guinea it is expected to increase from 65.6 years in 2016 to 75.9 years in 2040 .
It is also projected that the life expectancy will surpass 85 men and women in Japan, Singapore and Spain, and that it will exceed 80 in another 59 countries, including China.
While this scenario predicts improvements in life expectancy for most countries, it also predicts that deaths from several noninfectious diseases will increase, the researchers reported.
Other results
But that is assuming that things more or less remain the same. "The future of global health is not predetermined, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," lead author Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the Institute of Metrics and Health Assessment (IHME) of the University of Washington in Seattle. he said in a statement.
This wide range between the "best" and "worst" scenarios shows a "precarious vision" of the future, the authors wrote in the study. On the one hand, accelerated technology provides a great opportunity to move towards the "best" scenario, while an absence of political action could push the world towards the "worst" scenario.
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Under the "better health" scenario, men could earn an additional 7.8 years, on average, in life expectancy by 2040 and women could earn 7.2 years, on average. What's more, life expectancy in 158 countries would increase by at least five years, and 46 of those countries would see increases of at least 10 years, according to the report.
According to the report, in the scenario of "worse health", it is projected that life expectancy will decrease in almost half of the countries examined. Perhaps most surprising, the authors wrote, is that deaths from HIV AIDS It could increase by 120 percent in this scenario.
"Whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or badly health systems are targeted at key drivers of health," Foreman said. The main health factors that can lead to premature death are high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar and tobacco and tobacco use. use of alcohol, he added.
The report also predicted that differences in life expectancy between high and low-income countries would decrease by 2040, in the most likely scenario. But "the inequalities will continue to be great," said the study's lead author, Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, in the statement. "In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, will continue to have poor education and will die prematurely," he said.
To move forward faster, countries must help "people face the main risks, especially smoking and poor diet," Murray added. The authors wrote in the report that technical innovation and increased spending on health are especially "crucial" to help these countries.
Originally published in Living science.
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