War in the South China Sea: 3 ways in which the United States and China struggle
War in the South China Sea: 3 ways in which the United States and China struggle
What is not clear is that Beijing fully understands the risks of this strategy, or the dangers of pushing the US Navy to freedom of navigation, one of the central long-term interests of the United States. And since governments sometimes do not even understand that they are playing a dangerous game until they are in the middle, great caution is warranted.
It is easy to imagine an even more serious confrontation in the SCS. Another accidental collision would be serious enough, but if a scenario similar to that of the KAL 007 downing were developed, with a Chinese fighter that would actually fire on a US plane, the situation could get very ugly quickly. And if an American pilot fired on a Chinese plane, the reaction of the Chinese public could be too much for Beijing to handle reasonably.
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Neither China nor the United States want war. , at least not in the near future. Despite China's military buildup, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and its components are not ready to fight the United States. The United States, for its part, would surely prefer to avoid the chaos and uncertainty that Any military conflict with China would create .
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However, both China and the United States are making commitments in the South China Sea that everyone can find difficult to get away from. During the last two weeks, these commitments have generated a war of words that the analysts of the relationship have found worrisome. Key issues focus on China's efforts to expand (or create) islands in the Spratlys. , which could theoretically provide the basis for claims to territorial waters. The United States' insistence on freedom of navigation could bring these tensions to a boil. Here are three ways in which tensions in the South China Sea can lead to conflict.
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From island to island in the SCS
In recent months, China has intensified the construction of what observers call " The great sand wall "This" great wall "implies the expansion of a group of islands in the Spratly chain so that they can support airstrips, weapons and other permanent installations It seems that Beijing has committed to defend these new islands as integral parts of the Chinese territory, a position that the The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not support. Washington has other ideas and has argued that it will carry out freedom of navigation patrols in areas that China claims as territorial waters.
The perspectives of conflict are clear. If the US ships or planes enter waters China says, then Chinese sailors, soldiers and pilots must be very careful with the way they respond. A militarized response could quickly lead to escalation, especially if US forces suffer some kind of serious damage. It is also easy to imagine scenarios in which the construction of islands leads China to get entangled against a state of ASEAN . In such a case, a freedom of navigation patrol could put China in an awkward position relative to the third.
(This appeared for the first time in 2015).
Excitable combat sportsmen
China and the United States have already approached the conflict over aircraft collisions. When an Orion P-3 collided with a PLAN J-8 interceptor in 2001 , it led to weeks of recriminations and negotiations before the P-3 crew was returned to the United States, and the plane was returned ... in a box.
It is easy to imagine an even more serious confrontation in the SCS. Another accidental collision would be serious enough, but if a scenario similar to that of the KAL 007 downing were developed, with a Chinese fighter that would actually fire on a US plane, the situation could get very ugly quickly. And if an American pilot fired on a Chinese plane, the reaction of the Chinese public could be too much for Beijing to handle reasonably.
If China decides go ahead and declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea, matters could get even more complicated. The United States made a elaborate screen to ignore ADIZ of China in the East China Sea, but China has greater interests and a greater presence in the South China Sea. . Another statement would almost certainly incur a similar reaction from the United States, putting American and Chinese aircraft in close proximity.
Submarine misunderstanding
In the Cold War, the Soviet Union and NATO. suffered innumerable submarines "Near the faults", when the boats hunted each other, and occasionally collided with each other, in the Atlantic, the Arctic and the North Sea. The dynamics of sub-interaction between the United States and China have not yet developed in the same way, partly because China has not yet established a sustained SSBN patrol, and partly because Chinese ships do not go as far as their Soviet counterparts. But as the underwater force of the PLAN becomes more adventurous, underwater incidents may increase.
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