The probable presidential winner of Brazil establishes a shift to the right
The probable presidential winner of Brazil establishes a shift to the right
SÃO PAULO: Jair Bolsonaro, a former combatant army captain, is projected to win the presidency of Brazil by a wide margin on Sunday, joining the growing ranks of populists from around the world and changing the largest economy in Latin America sharply to the right.
The surveys show Mr. Bolsonaro winning almost 60% of Sunday's second round against Fernando Haddad Left Workers' Party, the alternate candidate of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was imprisoned this year for corruption. That would give the nationalist, long considered a secondary spectacle in Brazilian politics, one of the greatest victories for any president since the country returned to democracy three decades ago.
"We are the majority, we are the real Brazil, and together we will build a new nation," the 63-year-old shouted at his supporters in a recent video from his home in Rio de Janeiro, where he is recovering from a murder. Try early in the campaign.
Mr. Bolsonaro, center, is recovering from a previous stab in the campaign.
Photo:
antonio lacerda / epa / shutterstock
The forceful military man had only one message for his archenemy, Mr. da Silva, a former political prisoner during the 1964-85 dictatorship that Mr. Bolsonaro served. "You will rot in jail!"
Mr. Bolsonaro has surprised opponents and political experts in recent months by attract voters Through classes, racial and geographical divisions.
Many here see Mr. Bolsonaro, whose second name means Messiah, as a savior. Promise to Restore order In a country plagued by crime and corruption, the dying economy grows back and revives traditional family values in a society increasingly guided by evangelical Christianity.
But 30% of supporters say they will vote for him simply to try something new, according to a poll conducted last week by pollster Datafolha.
Despite representing Rio de Janeiro as a congressman for 27 years after leaving the army, Mr. Bolsonaro has positioned himself as an interloper in Brazil's political contempt. Traditional parties are not only out of touch, voters say, but they have also been stealing the electorate for more than a decade, according to the findings of the vast Corruption of car wash research, lavishing taxpayers' money on everything from yachts to emerald sculptures.
Voters are so angry with the Workers Party, which also oversaw the deepest recession in Brazil between 2014 and 2016, that some have referred to Mr. Bolsonaro as the best "pesticide" or "chemotherapy" available that Brazil has now to protect themselves from the return of the party
The probable victory of Mr. Bolsonaro on Sunday would mark the rupture of a party system that was established after the return to civilian government in the mid-1980s. It will be the first time since 1989 that neither the Workers' Party nor Brazil's other political heavyweight, the centrist PSDB, has won the presidency.
Campaigning largely through social media, Mr. Bolsonaro ran for the PSL party, which at the time was very small, and had only 8 seats in the lower house of the 513-seat Congress in Brazil before the first round of voting on October 7, when 52 federal deputies were thrown to Victoria for the party thanks to their success.
The parachutist turned politician Jair Bolsonaro won the first round of the Brazilian election. His statements about the dictatorship, torture, women and homosexuals make him a divisive candidate for the presidency. Stock Photo: Getty
But, on a global level, the rise of Bolsonaro follows a now familiar model of populist nationalism in countries like Hungary and Turkey, independently of the ideology of the parties. The leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador also overcame Mexico's political status quo in July with a similar commitment to tackle crime and corruption.
Running under the motto "Brazil above all, and God above all," Mr. Bolsonaro prefers comparisons with President Trump. "He wants to make the United States great, I want to make Brazil great," Bolsonaro said in a recent tirade against the media, complaining of being the victim of a torrent of "false news."
Bolsonaro's critics fear that his government has more in common with Filipino strongman Rodrigo Duterte, whose relentless war on drugs has killed thousands of people. Mr. Bolsonaro promises to facilitate civilians buying weapons for self-defense and for police to kill suspected criminals, measures that security experts say will only lead to more deaths in Brazil, where the highest year were killed almost 64,000 people. Annual figure on the planet.
In stating that he knew nothing about economics, he handed over control of the finance ministry to Paulo Guedes, an economist trained at the University of Chicago. Mr. Guedes promises to reduce Brazil's growing public debt by 20% through a series of privatizations, simplify the Byzantine tax system and reduce the generous pension benefits. That free market economic agenda runs counter to Mr. Bolsonaro's past statist tendencies and the army generals he plans to anoint as ministers, signaling the potential for conflict.
Presidential candidate Fernando Haddad, an ally of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, campaigned this week in São Paulo.
Photo:
Dario Oliveira / Zuma Press
Mr. Bolsonaro has committed to opening the Brazilian economy by reducing import tariffs and signing new bilateral trade agreements, encouraging financial markets. Since mid-September, Brazilian shares have gained 11%, the local currency strengthened almost 13% against the dollar and the cost of insuring Brazil's debt has also plummeted.
On the foreign policy front, it is likely to position Brazil as a strong ally of the US. UU In the region, and for a long time it has been manifested against China as a rapacious investor in South America.
His margin of victory on Sunday will not have a direct impact on the support of Congress, but a big victory will probably embolden him as much as his supporters.
Human rights groups fear a wave of hate crimes as their most radical supporters are inspired by their comments in defending torture, advocate beating children to prevent them from becoming homosexuals and telling minorities that they should " bow to the majority or simply disappear. " "
Opponents of Mr. Bolsonero projected the phrase "Not He" on the wall of a building in São Paulo.
Photo:
nacho doce / Reuters
Opponents say Brazil's young democracy is also at risk from Mr. Bolsonaro and his children, three of whom are also entrenched in politics. The candidate has rejected his own suggestions in the past to close the Congress, promising to respect the constitution if elected.
As Sunday's vote approaches, millions of Brazilians say they can not vote for Mr. Bolsonaro or Mr. Haddad. The election has provoked bitter and passionate disputes, distancing families and friends.
Like many others, Juliana Zamboni, a 30-year-old lawyer from São Paulo, plans to go to the beach for the weekend instead of the polls.
"I'm scared, I'm really afraid of being honest," he said. "Bolsonaro could be a kind of revolutionary and I like change, but anything that is extreme is bad."
Write to Samantha Pearson in samantha.pearson@wsj.com and Luciana Magalhães in Luciana.Magalhaes@wsj.com
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