The peace process in Afghanistan requires a new regional consensus
The peace process in Afghanistan requires a new regional consensus
In recent months, US and Afghan officials have launched a concerted effort to initiate a dialogue with the Taliban to end the war in Afghanistan. A stalemate on the battlefield between the Taliban and the Afghan security forces, and President Donald Trump search To obtain rapid results in its strategy, South Asia has generated a momentum for a negotiated peace between Afghan and American officials. However, the promotion of peace can only be successful if it is conceived as part of a new regional and international consensus on Afghanistan.
On September 5, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo formally set Zalmai Khalilzad, former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the United Nations, as Special Representative for the Reconciliation of Afghanistan. In this new role, Khalilzad receives the portfolio to "support, facilitate and participate" in the peace process. On his first tour of the countries of the region, which included Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Khalilzad. met with representatives of the Taliban in Doha on September 12. The Taliban confirmed that the meeting took place and indicated the will to continue the talks in the future.
The appointment of a Special Representative for the Reconciliation of Afghanistan comes after months of a proactive effort by President Ashraf Ghani to open a negotiating channel with the Taliban. On February 28, Ghani offered to enter into talks with the Taliban "without preconditions", and even expressed his willingness to recognize the group as a legitimate political party. In another bold move, Ghani announced a unilateral ceasefire on June 9. The ceasefire, which was reciprocated by the Taliban, brought three days of unprecedented peace throughout the country in its recent history of conflict.
Challenges ahead
Given the complex internal and external factors of the conflict, the challenges of a peaceful political settlement in Afghanistan can not be underestimated. Despite occasional optimism, much of the recent effort has been limited to "conversations about possible talks". Two interrelated challenges deserve special attention.
First, a peace process with the Taliban must be part of a new consensus that discourages regional and world powers from competitive investment in the war of power in Afghanistan. That consensus was key to the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001. But it is deteriorating rapidly. The emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan, consistent with its decline in Iraq and Syria, has changed the landscape. For Russia and Iran, the new player in Afghanistan (known as the Islamic State, Khorasan) presents more threats than the Taliban. Fearing the expansion of the Islamic State, both countries are allegedly providing help to the Taliban. Moscow has been trying Launch another peace process. At the same time, Pakistan. keep going Offer safe sanctuaries to the Taliban.
Despite pressure from US and Afghan government officials, the Taliban do not seem to have a sense of urgency to end the war because the group is benefiting from an improved regional image after the rise of the Islamic State and the support it has received from nearby countries. A regional and international environment polarized with conflicting policies in Afghanistan can give the terrorist organization the feeling that time is on its side. Consequently, the Taliban can count on the support of regional powers to continue fighting against the United States until they renounce Afghanistan, as it did once the Soviets withdrew in 1989.
Second, the Government of National Unity (NUG) of President Ghani must build a national consensus to sustain talks with the Taliban. Since its founding in 2014, the NUG has been plagued by internal factionalism and divisions between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah. President Ghani has been accused of monopolizing power In the hands of a predominantly Pashtun circle. In an environment full of ethnic and political divisions and uncertainty, it is likely that any major concession to the Taliban, which is predominantly Pashtun, will disrupt the fragile balance of power among the different ethnopolitical groups in Kabul. In addition, a new generation of assertive social and political elite that emerged after 2001 does not feel represented by any of the factions in the NUG. Still, they are important actors for a long-term political agreement.
A united leadership and an inclusive peace agenda on the part of the NUG can also enhance their credibility as a negotiating partner for the Taliban and the regional countries. The Taliban have also refused to publicly commit to entering into meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government. Condemning the Afghan government as a puppet of the United States, the Taliban have insisted on speaking directly with the Americans , creating profound challenges for the mantra of a Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process.
However, a stalemate has arisen between the Afghan government forces, their US and NATO allies, and the Taliban. While the Taliban have expanded its influence in the rural districts of Afghanistan, has not been able to take control of any important provincial center. Their efforts to take control of Kunduz in 2015 and Ghazni in 2018 exposed the weakness of the Afghan security forces, but they failed to provide the Taliban with long-term strategic advantages.
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