The Note: Trump plays with fears at the tense moment

The Note: Trump plays with fears at the tense moment https://i0.wp.com/www.eresviral.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Demócratas-luchan-por-los-resultados-la-representación-en-la-primaria-de-Boston.jpg?fit=260%2C36&ssl=1

The Note: Trump plays with fears at the tense moment











The shot with Rick Klein

The Republican Party's fight to keep the Senate extends deep into Trump's country.



That's in the mind of President Donald Trump as he prepares for a final bombing campaign aimed at increasing participation in areas where it is still popular. And it is an important factor, perhaps the only one, in his latest effort to turn the caravan of migrants into a national campaign issue.



Sending more than 5,000 US troops to confront a group of unarmed refugees The search for asylum is a dramatic statement. It is also little more than a statement: one that the president expects to be heard aloud within his base.





Dustin Franz / AFP / Getty Images
A woman brings flowers to a memorial on October 28, 2018, near the synagogue of the Tree of Life, after a shooting that left 11 dead in Pittsburgh on October 27, 2018. 

Trump spends part of your Tuesday in Pittsburgh, where he travels with First Lady Melania Trump to support the local Jewish community after a terrible mass shooting.



That seems to be the last respite from a full rally calendar that starts on Wednesday and is heavy in the Senate and in the governor elections, and light in the key campaigns of the House of Representatives.



One week from the day of the elections, the house. it may be slipping from the clutches of the Republican Party. But the Senate map is what it has always been, and it remains a tempting goal for Trump to play at his base.



The reduction with MaryAlice Parks

What about Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio? All three states helped put the president in office, but did they really get "red"?



The strength of sitting Senate Democrats for re-election this year would suggest otherwise.



Sens. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin; Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio; and Bob Casey, D-Pennsylvania, are also Predicted to win comfortably by our partners in FiveThirtyEight. What's more, in two of those states, candidates for Democratic Governor are giving active Republicans a run for their money. (Pennsylvania already has a Democratic governor, and it seems pretty safe at this point as well).





Angela Major / The Janesville Gazette via AP
Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., Addresses supporters and workers at the Rock County Democratic Party office in downtown Janesville, Wisconsin, on October 16, 2018.

That could mean: the president who won in those areas two years ago was a coincidence, his popularity is not enough to push the Republicans, or the Democrats are defending his case (or a combination of the three).



The national conversation has focused mainly on just a few super competitive Senate races selected as North Dakota Y IndianaBut were they really just low-lying fruit?



The TIP with John Verhovek

In half a year defined in many ways by President Trump, a particular section of the political battlefield of 2018 seems to defy the conventional laws of Trump era politics: the races of governors.



Whether because of the adage that all politics is local, or because there are quality candidates on both sides, the governor's outlook in 2018 offers a fascinating insight into how trends on the ground differ from national conversation.



According to FiveThirtyEight's Governors ForecastsWith a week to go before Election Day, there are five states that Trump won by between 15 and 37 points in which Democrats are in a competitive position:



Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Oklahoma
South Dakota





538
Forecast map of mid-term elections.

Conversely, in four states that Hillary Clinton captured between 10 and 28 points, Republicans have the possibility of being re-elected or are in a competitive race:



Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Oregon



Part of this phenomenon is linked to the unique political histories that these states have of partisan tendencies in state careers, but it also serves as a warning that the idiosyncrasy of local politics often prevails.



The playlist



ABC News' "Start here" Podcast. The episode on Tuesday morning features Mary Alice Alice Parks, deputy director of political policy at ABC News, who tells us that gun control is a major talking point in the campaign after the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre. And, Elizabeth McLaughlin of ABC News explains why thousands of troops are heading to the US border. UU And Mexico. https://bit.ly/2M7OS5c







The FiveThirtyEight policy podcast The team at FiveThirtyEight, a partner at ABC News, analyzes whether the state of American politics is contributing to the recent violent acts, and analyzes the narratives that the two parties are telling themselves about their opportunities in the Senate and debate the best possible results for each match. https://53eig.ht/2COJ36Q





WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump travel to Pittsburgh after the mass synagogue shooting at 2:50 p.m.

Stacey Abrams, candidate for the Democratic Governor of Georgia, joins The view of ABC at 11 a.m.

Former vice president Joe Biden He leads an early voting rally with Wisconsin Democrats, including Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Gov. Tony Evers, at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. He then heads to Iowa to campaign in Cedar Rapids along with Rep. Abby Finkenauer, state Rep. Fred Hubbell and State Senator Rita Hart at 7 p.m.

Eric Trump will also be in Wisconsin, campaigning for the Republican Senate candidate Leah vukmir.

Candidate for the Democratic Governor of Florida Andrew Gillum continues its bus tour throughout the state, in the direction of New Port Richey, Haines City, Charlotte County and Fort Myers.

Senator Bernie Sanders Holds an election rally with the Maryland Democratic candidate for governor Ben jealous At 6 pm. in bethesda.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie joins Eddie Edwards, the Republican candidate for the 1st Congressional District of New Hampshire, in the election campaign at the New Hampshire Republican Party rally at 6:30 p.m.

Debates on Tuesday: in the 2nd Congressional District of Virginia, the Republican representative of Scott Taylor Taylor and the Democratic challenger Elaine Luria meet in a debate at 11:30 a.m. Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Republican challenger Geoff Diehl meet in a final debate in Boston. At the Toby Theater in Newfields, Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly debates Republican challenger Mike Braun at 7 p.m.




The note has a new look! Download the ABC News application and select "The Note" as an element of interest to receive the most accurate political analysis of the day.





The Note is a daily feature of ABC News that highlights the political analysis of the upcoming day. Please come back tomorrow to see the latest news.

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