The Green Party of Germany emerges as the center-left opposition
The Green Party of Germany emerges as the center-left opposition
Here is a phrase that this columnist never expected to write: Two applause for the Green Party of Germany. You can have a lesson for the rest of Europe.
The Greens were the big winners in the state elections in Bavaria earlier this month, more than doubling their vote count from five years ago to finish second. The party is expected to match that result in Sunday's state elections in Hesse, where it is currently surveying around 20%. That's almost double its 2013 final and tied for second with the center-left Social Democratic Party
This sudden surge on the left is a shock to experts who assumed that German policy was drifting to the right. In contrast, the right-wing anti-immigrant alternative for Germany, or AfD, is effervescent. It gained around 10% in Bavaria and can reach 13% in Hesse, which is in fourth place. The reports of his disappearance are premature, but the AfD has struggled to gain momentum after its record share of 12.6% in last year's national elections.
The rise of marginal nationalist parties, such as the AfD, the French National Front, the United Kingdom Independence Party and the Geert Wilders Freedom Party in the Netherlands, created the impression that voters wanted national borders , different cultural identities and the end of large-scale immigration.
German voters, on the other hand, are rewarding the country's most avidly pro-immigrant party, a hyper-European band of urban cultural leftists. And they are not alone. The relief in the beating of Mr. Wilders in 2017 overshadowed the performance of D66, a moderate left-wing urban party, which increased its voting share by four points to more than 12%, almost a quarter in a crowded field. The president of France is Emmanuel Macron, the main quasi-socialist in partial conflict of the offer.
The history of the German greens shows how this happens. Once a peace party and hippie scolding trees, in the last 20 years, the party has absorbed a new stretch of voters and more realistic leaders. The secret to the new success of the game is an unlikely combination of vague another world in some political areas, hard realism in others and a paradoxical ability to maintain its status as a stranger, while being conventional enough to gain the confidence of the voters.
In economics, that means making peace with the labor reforms of 2003-05, which the Greens helped to form part of the coalition with the Chancellor Manager Schröder of the SPD. These revisions still induce neuralgia attacks among SPD leaders who believe that reform costs party votes and should be eliminated.
But the Greens speak to voters who know that the German labor market needed to change, but they also think there is room to improve the law with better protections for low-wage work, for example. That is not as classic liberal as this columnist might prefer, but he is respectable centrist in Germany.
And if you're talking about classical liberalism, the Greens offer a surprising dose of that to lure voters into Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Democratic Christian Union. They denounce the capitalism of friends that produced, and has been exposed by, the Dieselgate scandal in the automotive industry.
That year-long political and business fiasco, triggered by revelations that automakers falsified emissions testing, has reminded voters of the close ties between the CDU and the SPD and German industry. Center-right voters can respect the Greens' attitude to business, whether or not they like the specific fixes of the green anti-green policy.
So also, in a way, in foreign policy. The party is a disaster for military spending and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, none of which the Greens like. But that is on par with the course in peacefully conscious Germany. Green innovation must be hard for Russia in terms of human rights and sanctions, possibly more difficult than any other main party.
The key point is that the Greens offer some external independence, especially in contrast to an SPD whose nine years in a left-right coalition with Mrs. Merkel have cost the party its identity and possibly its mind.
Which raises the possibility that externality, not nationalism or xenophobia, has been the main factor that attracted voters to the AfD. The history of the Greens tends to support the theory that marginal politics has more to do with politics than with the periphery, that voters are more concerned with bringing a deck to ossified political systems than about the particular views of politicians. swinging the hammer.
That is discouraging for the mainstream parties, which may find that there is nothing they can do to regain their lost credibility, there is no policy they can implement to attract disgruntled voters. But it is a very comforting thought for voters concerned about a recent trend towards limits, which otherwise would not be responsible.
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