The airport referendum is an early test for the new government of Mexico
The airport referendum is an early test for the new government of Mexico
MEXICO CITY: President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Thursday launched a controversial referendum on the future of Mexico's busiest airport, a move that could put his incoming administration on a collision course with investors by canceling the project of the country's most important infrastructure.
During the next four days, voters may choose to continue building a new airport of $ 13.3 billion to the northeast of Mexico City that would replace the capital's existing airport, or discard it in favor of a less ambitious option of converting a military base north of the city to complement the existing airport. The new airport is already close to a full third.
For business groups, the referendum represents an early test of the incoming government of Mr. López Obrador, who takes office on December 1. A result against the main infrastructure project of outgoing president Enrique Peña Nieto will mark a negative start for the administration of Mr. López Obrador, say some economists.
"If we have a" no ", I think the markets will react negatively," said Marco Oviedo, director of research for Latin America at Barclays. "Obviously, if we have a" yes ", the airport bonds will recover and we will see a stabilization of other assets."
President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador issues his vote on whether to continue with the $ 13.3 billion airport to replace the current Benito Juarez International Airport in Mexico City on October 24.
Photo:
Eduardo Verdugo / Associated Press
Discarding the new airport means canceling at least $ 5 billion spent so far, and could lead to holders of about $ 6 billion in bonds that were issued to finance work that demands immediate payment.
The plan to put such a technical issue in the hands of people who know little or nothing about airports has also raised concerns about the style of government likely to be Mr. López Obrador. He has sworn a series of referendums. During his next administration, even halfway, Mexicans will be asked if they want him to resign.
"Trying to make the infrastructure a publicly decided issue, I think it's probably a mistake," said Jay Jacobs, head of research at Global X, a fund-raising sponsor in New York.
"The cancellation of the development of an airport that could help facilitate more business and tourism for Mexico will be negative in the long term."
Mr. López Obrador, Who won the July 1 presidential election for a landslide, called project designed by the US architect Norman Foster, a waste of money for a country with the social needs of Mexico. He campaigned in favor of maintaining the existing airport and building an international terminal and two runways in Santa Lucia, a military base north of the city.
Business sectors, from tourism to airlines, say that canceling the new airport will ruin the opportunity to improve Mexico's airport infrastructure, as the country ranked 67th out of 137 countries measured by the World Economic Forum in 2017.
"This new airport is extremely important, not only for tourism but also for the economic growth of our country," said Pablo Azcárraga, president of the Tourism Business Council of Mexico.
The referendum, for which 1,073 polling places have been established throughout the country, is not legally binding. But Mr. López Obrador has said he would follow the voters' decision. The results of the vote are expected on Sunday night.
On Thursday he defended the vote as an exercise in democracy.
"I understand that there are economic interests in this matter, but we must put general interest forward," he said after casting his vote.
The Center for Advanced Development of the Aviation System, part of the US research and development organization Miter Corp., and the United Nations International Civil Aviation Organization say that the current project, partially completed, is the best option to solve the problem of the current airport, which handled 44 million passengers last year and has no room to grow.
Although the current airport could operate alongside Saint Lucia, he said, the number of flights would be limited by airspace restrictions.
The Mexican College of Civil Engineers also warned about the possibility that certain airlines, particularly US airlines, put obstacles and conditions to fly to Mexico City.
"This loss of prestige would not be less," he said.
Mr. López Obrador has promised that his government will guarantee the contracts of the main companies that work in the new airport, and any work that has been awarded to them could be transferred to the Santa Lucía military base project, he said this week.
The companies involved in the project include a construction company owned by Mexican billionaire Carlos SlimSpanish conglomerate
Acciona
SA
and other prominent Mexican builders such as Grupo ICA.
The way in which the consultation was organized, as well as the way in which the question was posed, generated widespread criticism. The districts chosen to install the polling places won by Mr. López Obrador's Morena party were much more represented than the areas won by other parties, according to a study by Javier Aparicio, a political science professor at CIDE University in Mexico.
"I do not think this is a consultation, I think it's a sham," said Valeria Moy, head of the Mexico City expert group. Mexico, How are we going? "The ballots do not have security filters, they are not numbered, anyone can go to any box that wants to vote, they can vote many times," he added.
The newspaper Reforma de México reported that it carried out an exercise in which it was possible to vote several times in different polling places. Many people in social networks reported the same thing.
Although the president-elect has refrained from saying what he thinks the people should vote for, his appointed communications and transportation minister, Javier Jiménez Espriú, and the construction entrepreneur José María Rioboó, who is close to Mr. López Obrador, They have been playing Santa Lucia.
Originally, it was expected that the new airport in Mexico City would cost around $ 10 billion, although since then it has increased to around $ 13.3 billion as the project expanded to meet the higher expected travel demand. aerial The airport will not be finished until between 2022 and 2024.
Ms. Moy from Mexico How are we going? He said the decision to cancel the airport project would be disastrous.
"It would send to all the signal that in Mexico it can not have infrastructure projects that go through administrations, because everything will depend on the acting governor or president," he said.
Write to Anthony Harrup in anthony.harrup@wsj.com
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