Retail sales in the United States increase less than expected in September
Retail sales in the United States increase less than expected in September
WASHINGTON: US consumers stopped spending on restaurants and department stores in September, which resulted in a second consecutive month of weak spending as the holiday season approached.
Sales at retail stores and restaurants increased 0.1% seasonally adjusted in September, the Commerce Department said on Monday. That exceeded economists' expectations of a 0.7% month-on-month increase, and coincided with the spending rate in August. Retail sales increased 0.6% in July.
Hurricane Florence, which touched down. On the North Carolina coast in mid-September, it may have muddied the data last month. Economists attributed a sharp drop in spending to go out to dinner to the storm. Sales in the food service and in places where drinks are drunk fell 1.8% last month, the most pronounced monthly fall in the category in almost two years.
The Census Bureau said it could not isolate the effect of the hurricane, although companies in its survey said the storm "had positive and negative effects on its sales data, while others indicated that they were not affected."
"The September figures were unquestionably mild, but there were many things," Amherst Pierpont economist Stephen Stanley said in a note to clients, noting that strong retail spending recovered in the spring and summer last month, and the warm weather that there may be selling clothes back to school.
Retail sales data can be volatile from month to month, and economists said that September spending was likely to be hampered only once instead of a sudden slowdown in underlying consumer demand, which has been strong in recent years. last months.
"At this time we are still seeing what the end of tax reduction is," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Consumer confidence measures have remained high recently, supported by low unemployment and broader economic growth.
Looking ahead, James Bohnaker, an economist at a research firm.
He said recent liquidation in the stock markets and the increase in gas prices could make consumers think twice about the additional discretionary spending in the holiday season for retailers.
"Buyers have become accustomed to having extra money in their bank accounts as a result of the tax cuts of 2018, but that stimulus will be greatly diffused by the increase in gas prices," he said in a note from the analyst.
Manufacturer of household items and beauty products.
Helena of Troy
Limited.
last week Highest sales reported and earnings for its second quarter, which ended on August 31, but warned that profits could fall in the current quarter due to the inflation of goods and merchandise, and tariffs on goods imported from China.
"The second half of the year is not without challenges, including rising input costs and the adverse impact of tariffs," Chief Executive Julien Mininberg said in a conference call last week.
The Federal Reserve of Atlanta said that the latest retail sales data reduced its estimate of consumer spending in the third quarter and, as a result, reduced its GDPNow real-time growth estimator to 4.0%, below 4.2 % in the estimate of October 10. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's estimate is compared to the 3.6% estimate offered by private forecasting firm Macroeconomics Advisers.
While sales of motor vehicles recovered in September after a drop in August, sales fell 0.1% in September by excluding motor vehicles, losing the expectations of economists of an increase of 0.4% and marking the biggest drop since May 2017.
Retail sales do not adjust to inflation, and the stronger dollar may have contributed to the lower number of sales by reducing the prices of certain imports such as clothing, which means less money in the cash registers of clothing retailers. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the US currency. UU Against a basket of other 16, has risen 4% this year.
Sales in department stores fell by 0.8%. Non-store retail sales, such as purchases made online or in mail order catalogs, increased 1.1% last month and increased 11.4% over the year.
The Federal Reserve closely monitors consumer spending data as an indicator of economic growth, and central bank officials pointed out that strong consumer spending was a factor in its decision to raise its benchmark interest rate in September to a range between 2% and 2.25%. They are expected to raise the rate again by a quarter percentage point in December.
Write to Harriet Torry in harriet.torry@wsj.com
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