Radical plans, risks in foreign policy of Bolsonaro of Brazil.
Radical plans, risks in foreign policy of Bolsonaro of Brazil.
The elected president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, has often expressed admiration for Donald Trump and seems to be prepared to follow the president of the United States. UU in a radical revision of the foreign policy of his country, a measure that experts warn could isolate and hurt Brazil.
Bolsonaro, who will take office on January 1, promised to take the largest nation in Latin America out of the Paris climate deal, join the handful of countries that have moved their embassies in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and take a hard line against President Nicolás Maduro in neighboring Venezuela.
The former army captain, who gained notoriety as a congressman for a language loaded with violence and offensive comments, has also hit China, Brazil's largest foreign investor.
The general brushes of their plans have diplomats, political analysts and former government officials who warn that such measures could isolate the regional power instead of opening new markets, what Bolsonaro has said he wants to do when promulgating a generalized privatization of the industries state
"If Bolsonaro does what he says, Brazil will quickly become a pariah in the global community," said Rubens Ricupero, a former finance and environment minister. "Brazil has 50,000 problems to solve, it wants to give us problems that we do not have for nothing."
A deeply polarizing figure in the home, Bolsonaro has also ruffled feathers abroad. He called the refugees fleeing Europe "human waste", who eyebrows in the countries of Africa and the Middle East, and irritated China by visiting Taiwan, which Beijing considers a separatist province.
And, like Trump, he has also said that Brazil would reject or attempt to renegotiate trade agreements, including the South American Mercosur common market.
In addition to Bolsonaro's aggressive statements, analysts do not know exactly how he will operate. He has not said whom he could name as Foreign Minister, and apart from his campaign hyperbolic rhetoric, his official platform was laden with generalities but slight on real politics.
"The structure of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should be at the service of the values that were always associated with the Brazilian people," the statement read. "The other front is to promote foreign trade with countries that can add economic and technological value to Brazil."
As a backbench congressman with a mediocre record for 27 years, only two of his proposals became law, Bolsonaro often claimed that Brazil's foreign policy was driven by the "leftist ideology of the Workers Party," which ruled from 2003 until 2016. He promised to eliminate the political bias of his international platform by "not dealing with dictatorships," an apparent reference to leftist leaders like Maduro and Cuban President Raúl Castro.
Leaving the Paris Agreement is the potential decision that will be observed more closely. Brazil agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. For that to happen, it must increase biofuels as part of its energy infrastructure and significantly reduce deforestation.
Like Trump, who took the United States out of the agreement, Bolsonaro has said it is a bad deal for Brazil, home to most of the Amazon rainforest. In September, the then candidate said that the agreement put "the sovereignty of Brazil at stake" because to meet emissions and deforestation objectives it could not develop millions of acres of the Amazon territory.
Days before Sunday's election, Bolsonaro stepped back a bit, saying he would not withdraw the country if Brazil's sovereignty were maintained, which could be interpreted in many ways.
Leaving the agreement would lead to widespread international condemnation and could also have financial consequences, including the loss of foreign investment and the blockade of a trade agreement that Brazil is negotiating with the European Union.
Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at Fundacao Getulio Vargas University in Sao Paulo, says that Bolsonaro's decisions will resonate in a way not necessarily for a leader like Trump.
"Imagine the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, who is a voice for moderation in the world, she has to know Trump because the United States is a great partner," he said. "Why would I meet Bolsonaro, a man who could cause him problems simply by the things he has already said? Adding problems will only make things worse."
Bolsonaro will also begin his administration amid friction with China, which has invested billions of dollars in energy, infrastructure and oil projects in Brazil. During the campaign, he complained that "the Chinese are not buying in Brazil, they are buying Brazil itself".
In February, Bolsonaro, then a presidential candidate, joined a group of Brazilian legislators on a visit to Taiwan to meet with business leaders and local politicians.
Soon after, the government of Chinese President Xi Jingping sent Bolsonaro a letter saying that the tour caused "a possible turbulence in the strategic partnership between Brazil and China."
Charles Tang, president of the Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce in Rio de Janeiro, said he believes Bolsonaro will moderate his positions once in office, and that the president-elect's attempts to forge closer ties with the Trump administration should not Damage relations with China. .
But Tang also warned that China could retaliate if the rhetoric is not softened. For example, Brazil is scheduled to organize a summit next year of the so-called BRICS nations, the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
"Mr. Xi could decide not to come if he does not feel welcome," Tang said.
During the campaign, Bolsonaro frequently showed Venezuela as a warning of what the leftist policies of the Workers Party candidate, Fernando Haddad, could bring, promising to take a hard line and "block communism," although he never detailed what What would it really do? .
The way in which that hard conversation could be translated into politics is not clear. The current president Michel Temer has already severely broken relations with Venezuela, where millions of people have fled the economic and political collapse in recent years. Tens of thousands have crossed into Brazil on its northern border.
Rubens Barbosa, Brazil's former ambassador to Washington, believes that, ultimately, Bolsonaro will retreat in his more radical positions in foreign policy.
"In the case of recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, for example, it would be discarding $ 6 billion per year in sales of poultry to Arab countries," said Barbosa, noting that Brazil is one of the largest exporters of poultry. of corral and meat.
"There will be people who will advise him on the impacts and he will listen," he said.
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