More accurate search for possible signals sent by an extraterrestrial civilization
More accurate search for possible signals sent by an extraterrestrial civilization
More accurate search for possible signals sent by an extraterrestrial civilization
Could there be a civilization on another planet at the same stage of technological advancement as ours? If there is one not far away, it may be generating electromagnetic signals, and Earth scientists could pick up those signals using sufficiently sensitive radio telescopes. The scientific community has been exploring this possibility for about 60 years. Several research projects related to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) have been carried out since the late 1950s, mainly in the United States. Despite the considerable advances in radio astronomy and the increase in computing power since then, none of these projects has obtained unequivocal or mildly encouraging results. Some signals without identifiable origin have attracted attention, as the signal colloquially called "Wow!" And that was captured in 1977, but none of them has repeated or show sufficient evidence of artificial intervention to consider it a clear suspicion of alien transmission.
Anyway, that does not mean we should give up. On the contrary, the SETI search has seen renewed interest after the discovery of many planets orbiting around hundreds of stars, and the suspicion that among the billions of suns in our galaxy, there may be many with planets around them. In addition, instruments and techniques have been greatly improved to detect signals of possible alien origin.
A new and interesting improvement is now coming from the hand of Claudio Grimaldi, of the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne in Switzerland, working in collaboration with the University of California at Berkeley, United States. It is a new statistical model that could make the search for extraterrestrial intelligent signals cheaper and more efficient.
The advantage of the Grimaldi statistical model is that it allows scientists to interpret both success and failure when tracking and detecting signals at varying distances from Earth. His model uses Bayes' theorem to calculate the remaining probability of detecting a signal within a given radius around our planet.
Diagram of the Milky Way showed six extraterrestrial artificial processes of isotropic emission (with equal force in all directions) forming spheres that harbor radio wave signals. The outermost point of the radius of each sphere is proportional to the moment when the signals were first emitted, while the thickness of the "ring" is proportional to the duration of the emissions. In this example, one such signal is passing through the Earth. (Image: Claudio Grimaldi / EPFL)
For example, even if a signal was not detected within a 1,000 light-years radius, there would still be a possibility of more than 10 percent of the Earth being within the range of hundreds of similar signals emitted from other points in the Earth. galaxy, although our radio telescopes are not currently powerful enough to detect them. For that probability to reach almost 100 percent it is enough for a signal to be detected within the radius of 1,000 light-years. In that case, we could be almost sure that our galaxy is full of extraterrestrial life.
After taking into account other parameters such as the size of the galaxy and how close the stars are to each other, Grimaldi estimates that the probability of detecting a signal becomes very small only from a radius of 40,000 light-years. In other words, if no signals are detected at this distance from Earth, we could reasonably conclude that it is not possible to detect another civilization with the same level of technological development as ours in the galaxy. But until now, scientists have only been able to look for signals within a radius of just 40 light-years.
So there is a long way to go. Especially if we take into account that the search methods used today are incapable of detecting alien civilizations that are in their initial stages of technological progress or that are highly advanced but that have not followed the same technological trajectory as us.
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