Modeling seasonal flu epidemics: urban density and climate
Modeling seasonal flu epidemics: urban density and climate
According to a new report, the more inhabitants a city has and the more organized the movements of its inhabitants, the longer the flu season continues, even in unfavorable weather conditions for its spread. The findings of the report, which according to a related Perspective study "imply a change in the way of thinking about infection control", represent an important step to better predict the outbreaks of influenza outbreaks, with millions of people affected and dozens of deaths every year in the USA UU
As a recent example, the winter influenza season 2017-2018 in the USA. UU It was particularly long and severe, putting the health system of the country in check. The flu spreads and evolves into a series of animals; Predicting and controlling this aspect is important for public health. However, several factors have been proposed to explain the size and shape of seasonal influenza epidemics, including those related to immunity, social overcrowding or changing climatic conditions, among others, in order to infer the relative importance of each One is a challenge. To more accurately predict influenza outbreaks, researchers must look at a series of processes, from urbanization to climate.
On this occasion, working to achieve more accurate seasonal flu predictions, Benjamin Dalziel and his colleagues analyzed weekly data on influenza incidence (represented by data from US patients who visited physicians' offices with flu-like illnesses between 2002 and 2008). from 600 regions of the USA UU with different structures, including transport patterns. After their analyzes, they report that the flu is spread differently in urban centers with high population density bags connected by organized movements.
In these metropolises, cases of influenza were more widespread during the winter months, even at the beginning and end of the season, when the weather is not the most appropriate for the transmission of influenza. On the contrary, in smaller populations, cases of influenza were concentrated more frequently in a short period during the high season. The authors affirm that the different seasonal influenza epidemic patterns observed depending on the geographic region, such as the tendency for flu cases to have a greater grouping in the Southeast of the US. UU., They persisted year after year.
Assuming hypothetically that such patterns could be partly caused by responses to climatic factors, the researchers evaluated the influence of a key climate metric, the specific humidity. As it decreases, moisture droplets expelled by people infected with the flu remain viable in the air (outside their host) for longer. Modeling revealed that local moisture patterns in key regions contributed to differences in influenza patterns, with more intense flu epidemics in populations with greater changes in humidity.
Faced with what intuition might indicate, it was cities with smaller populations where changes in humidity played a more important role; in these places, transmission of influenza due solely to high population density is slightly lower, so that the decrease in humidity is a greater help for the spread of influenza virus. This work is "important for policy making," writes Jacco Wallinga in a related Perspective study, "because it would indicate that metropolitan areas should focus on reducing the spread of influenza, while small cities should focus on reducing harm. " (Source: AAAS)
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