Juan Williams: Republicans, there's almost no way to keep the House - The Democrats have the wind behind...
Juan Williams: Republicans, there's almost no way to keep the House - The Democrats have the wind behind them
Around this time, last month, I wrote an article for Fox News titled "Why do I keep betting Republicans to occupy the Senate (but check with me in a month)."
Since then, readers have registered through email and social networks to see what I think will happen with the elections to the House of Representatives in the midterm elections on November 6. Let me remind everyone to take what I say with a lot of salt: after all, I predicted a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016!
Then, while leading pollsters, such as FiveThirtyEight.com, prognosis of a 6 in 7 opportunity If the Democrats win enough seats to control the House, you can also change those numbers. It's also true that FiveThirtyEight.com predicts a 14.2 percent chance that Republicans have a majority in the House.
That means that the Republican Party has a better chance of winning than the players who have lottery tickets. That gives Republicans reason to expect the "Blue Wave of 2018" to go down in history along with the legendary Clinton Electoral College, the "blue wall" of 2016.
Well, now, with a great help of humility, here are my predictions based on the best available surveys, fundraising data and 40 years of experience in political campaigns.
As the baseball referee said, "I call them as I see them."
At this moment, the Democrats seek to have the wind behind them while trying to obtain the majority of the House.
Republicans, similarly, have the leadership when we enter the campaign's homestretch in their struggle to keep their majority in the Senate. But having written about the Senate races last month, let's continue with the careers of the House of Representatives this time.
Democrats need at least 24 seats to turn the majority of the House around. Let's go to the map to see how they can get there.
To begin with, there are seven districts in the deep blue of California that are currently represented by Republicans, but which were for Clinton in 2016.
California law requires that congressional districts be appointed by a non-partisan redistricting commission. This has almost eliminated any gerrymandering advantage that California Republicans may have counted in previous elections.
In my opinion, the Democrats have every reason to be sure of winning seven House seats in California. Add to that another 16 districts controlled by the Republican Party outside the Golden State where Clinton beat Trump.
Let's be extremely generous and let's say that the Republican Party manages to keep four of those 16, leaving the Democrats with a selection of 19 seats.
The Republican Party is also defending nine districts of the House where Trump won by less than eight points.
And Republicans are also defending the seats of two members, Chris Collins in New York and Duncan Hunter Jr. in California, where the incumbent is charged with federal corruption charges.
In addition, the newspaper The Hill reported last week that "more than 70 candidates for the House of Democracy outnumbered the Republican incumbents in the third quarter of 2018 ... giving them a great financial advantage in the final stretch of the partial exams."
Then there are the wild card races of House, and there are more of them than in the previous partial exams.
The reason is that the Democrats have presented some impressive candidates that are surprisingly competitive in the Red Trump Congress districts. These democrats include:
- Amy McGrath, a former Navy fighter pilot. He might as well knock down the acting Republican Representative, Andy Barr, in the 6th Congressional District of Kentucky.
- St. Clair County State Attorney Brendan Kelly, also a Navy veteran. He is well positioned to win his candidacy to replace incumbent Republican Representative Mike Bost in the 12th Congressional District of Illinois.
- Richard Ojeda, a retired officer of the United States Army. It is being surveyed within the margin of error against the Republican in the 3rd Congressional District of West Virginia.
Republicans have only one way to keep their majority in the House: they need to run the table. Meanwhile, Democrats have multiple plausible paths to get the 24 seats they need.
And never forget, a Democratic majority in the House means that key House committees (Intelligence, Government Operations and Judiciary) will have citation power that will allow them to monitor the Trump White House.
President Trump recently told The Associated Press that he believes it would be unfair to blame him if the Republican Party loses a majority in the House. Even when many of the races become referendums on Trump's presidency, and the disapproval of his presidency is still higher than his approval numbers, the president described himself as "helping people."
But it's hard to see how continually insulting women by degrading their appearance (the president recently stirred up that pot by referring to Stormy Daniels as "Horseface") goes to help Republican candidates with female voters.
President Trump's most loyal supporters may try to ignore such unpleasant comments or even find them funny, definitely not politically correct, but polls already show white women with college degrees who voted against Republicans in November.
As for the Senate, I'm still betting that Republicans occupy that chamber and that Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky will remain the leader of the majority in the Senate at the 116th Congress.
The Senate races in Texas, Tennessee and North Dakota seem to break for Republicans.
In North Dakota, for example, the latest Fox News poll showed Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer beating Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp by 12 points. Heitkamp's vote against confirming Brett Kavanaugh in the Supreme Court seems to have sealed his fate in a state that Trump won by more than 36 points.
The most recent polls also show Republican Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada and Rep. Martha McSally in Arizona in races close to the Senate in states with a history of voting by conservatives. An Emerson College survey shows Heller with a 7-point lead. The last average of RealClearPolitics shows McSally ahead but well within the margin of error.
So Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief: the Senate seems safe even when the House of Representatives appears to be a good bet for Democrats.
But more than two weeks remain midterm elections, a policy of eternity, especially in the Trump era.
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