In 2040 Spain could be the country with the highest life expectancy in the world
In 2040 Spain could be the country with the highest life expectancy in the world
The Lancet magazine publishes this week a study on the life expectancy and the main causes of death in the world by 2040 according to the forecasts corresponding to several possible scenarios.
Research shows that all countries are likely to experience at least a slight increase in life expectancy. In contrast, in a more pessimistic context, almost half of all nations would face lower expectations.
"Significant progress or stagnation will depend on how health systems address specific risk factors," says Kyle Foreman, an expert with the Institute of Metrics and Health Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington (USA) and author. principal of the study.
According to Foreman, the five main factors that influence expectations about premature mortality are high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar level, tobacco and alcohol consumption. Air pollution ranks sixth.
Therefore, the study projects a significant increase in deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which include diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease and lung cancer, as well as the worsening of health outcomes linked to the obesity.
In addition, the analysis exposes a substantial risk that mortality from HIV or AIDS will rise, which could mean a decline in recent increases in life expectancy in several countries of sub-Saharan Africa.
In 2040, Spain could have a higher life expectancy than Japan. (Photo: Pixabay)
The life expectancy of the different territories offers new knowledge about their state of health. Thus, Spain, with an average life expectancy of 82.9 years in 2016, ranked 4th among 195 countries.
However, if recent health trends continue, it could rise to the first place in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 85.8 years, which represents an average increase of 2.8 years (from 4.5 years in the best health scenario at only 0.8 years at worst).
This would surpass Japan, first in the 2016 ranking (with an average life expectancy of 83.7 years), which will occupy the second place in 2040 (with an average of 85.7 years).
In contrast, the United States in 2016 ranked 43rd, with an average life expectancy of 78.7 years. In 2040, life expectancy is projected to increase by only 1.1 years to 79.8, but decreasing from rank to place 64.
By comparison, the United Kingdom had a life expectancy of 80.8 years in 2016 and is expected to increase to 83.3, increasing its ranking from 26th to 23rd in 2040.
In 2016, the 10 leading causes of premature death in Spain were ischemic heart disease, Alzheimer's, lung cancer, stroke, COPD, cancer of the colon and rectum, breast cancer, suicide, other cardiovascular diseases and lower respiratory infections.
However, in 2040 the main reasons are expected to be Alzheimer's, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, COPD, colon and rectal cancer, stroke, chronic kidney disease, other cardiovascular diseases, pancreatic cancer and diabetes.
For the authors, the country has great potential to improve the health trajectory by addressing the key risk factors, education levels and per capita income.
In addition to Spain, it is expected that in 2040 other nations will rise substantially in their ranking in terms of life expectancy, including China, Syria, Nigeria and Indonesia. In contrast, it is estimated that Palestine will fall further into its life expectancy classification, as well as the United States, Canada, Norway, Taiwan, Belgium and the Netherlands.
While Spain, Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, Portugal, Italy, Israel, France, Luxembourg and Australia occupy the top 10 of the nations with the highest life expectancies, the countries that occupy the last places are Lesotho, Swaziland, Central African Republic and South Africa .
"Inequalities will continue to be great," concludes Christopher Murray, director of IHME. "In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, will continue to have little education and will die prematurely. But nations could progress faster, facing the main risks, especially smoking and poor diet. " (Source: SINC)
.
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script',
'https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js');
fbq('init', '369524843414444');
fbq('track', 'PageView');
.
SOURCE LINK ERESVIRAL.COM https://www.beviral.online
Comentarios
Publicar un comentario