Hurricane Michael headed to Florida is the classic October storm
Hurricane Michael headed to Florida is the classic October storm
A classic October storm, Hurricane Michael It is all the contrast with the Florence of September.
Michael is likely to be stronger, windier and faster when he arrives in Florida Panhandle sometime on Wednesday. And the problem of water along the coast is more likely to be storm surge, not rain.
"You will not have days or days of rain, it will be gone in about a day", University of Miami hurricane Researcher Brian McNoldy said Tuesday.
Five things about Michael:
WARM WATER
Hot water is the fuel of hurricanes, and now it's about 2 degrees (about 1 degree Celsius) warmer than normal in the part of the Gulf of Mexico where Michael was on Tuesday, McNoldy said. He said it's like giving a premium gas car instead of a regular one. Just before the storm hits land, the water it passes through will be 4 to 5 degrees (2.2 to 2.8 degrees Celsius) warmer than normal, which gives Michael "just one extra kick," he said.
Because of the warmer waters, computer simulations predict that Michael's central pressure will sink just before he lands, which is a sign of intensification, said Jeff Masters of Weather Underground. But there may not be enough time for wind speeds to actually increase before reaching the ground.
"We expect Michael to intensify until he makes landfall," he said. "It will be interrupted by the arrival on land, otherwise it would have been strengthened."
Where it started
Michael was formed from a large, careless, low-pressure area in the western Caribbean and headed north. Heavy storms at the beginning of the season usually form off the coast of West Africa, then head west towards the Caribbean and the east coast of the United States.
The hurricane season in the Atlantic extends from June 1 to November 30. While the season peaks in August and September, the big storms in October are not uncommon. Michael only became the 13th storm of the season on Sunday. Nadine became the 14th storm named on Tuesday. An average season has about a dozen named storms.
Where will you hit
The National Hurricane Center predicts that Michael will arrive in the central part of the Florida Panhandle as a major hurricane. While weaker storms have hit that area, major hurricanes with winds over 110 mph do not do it very often, McNoldy said. According to McNoldy, only three major hurricanes have struck the Panama City area and none since 1895. And only seven of the major hurricanes have reached a radius of 160 kilometers (100 miles).
When looking at the wider Panhandle area, Masters sees many important hurricanes that could be good parallels. He points out to Dennis in 2005 that he hit Santa Rosa Beach and Hurricane Opal in 1995 that made landfall in Pensacola.
STORM INCREASE
Experts worry more about Michael's storm surge: the forecast is 10 to 12 feet (3 meters). Storm tides are not walls of water, like a tsunami. They are an increase in the level of the sea caused by the winds of a hurricane that push the water without rest on the shore. The high water has destructive waves at the top, and comes in addition to the normal tides.
The Gulf coast receives larger storms because the water is shallow right on the coast, so it can accumulate. And the Big Bend area of Florida is notorious for the increase in storms due to its curved shape. Dennis hit 170 miles (275 kilometers) to the west, but the Big Bend area had a greater storm surge.
DREAM OF THE PREDICTOR
Hurricane forecasters have not had much trouble deciphering Michael's path in the Gulf of Mexico. Major computer models quickly converged on a similar track from the start, McNoldy said.
"This thing has been so predictable that it's crazy," he said. "This behaves as well as storms are done, it does not make land better, but at least you know what to expect and when to wait."
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To learn the latest about Hurricane Michael, visit https://www.apnews.com/tag/Hurricanes.
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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter: @borenbears.
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The Associated Press Department of Science and Health receives support from the Department of Science Education at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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SOURCE LINK ERESVIRAL.COM https://www.beviral.online
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