How to win a cold war with Beijing
How to win a cold war with Beijing
Vice President Mike Pence announced a turning point in Washington's relations with Beijing. In a speech on October 4 at the Hudson Institute, he acknowledged that four decades of attempts by the United States to turn China into an "actor" in global norms and institutions had failed. The White House now promises to change relationships accordingly.
Mr. Pence did not offer details, but there is no lack of measures that the government can take to affirm the interests of the United States against the hegemonic objectives of China. It should recommit itself to the defense of American allies in East Asia and to the improvement of the ability of US forces to deter Chinese expansion.
The deterrent measures are divided into two categories: the actions that the EE. UU They can take unilaterally and the steps that must be taken along with the regional allies. The countries of East Asia are increasingly joining the United States to believe that a triumphant China "will treat us like dogs," as an Asian diplomat recently told me.
To begin with, the United States Navy needs to expand its fleet. The Trump administration is committed to increasing the number of active ships to 355 from approximately 280 today. But this expansion must take place in 2030, instead of over the 30-year term proposed by the White House. An accelerated naval buildup would give China a proof of US intent. UU To resist their regional ambitions, speaking with President Xi Jinping in a language that does not need translation.
I know. UU They could start by ordering an additional carrier attack group to deploy in the Indo-Pacific region. The only aircraft carrier in the United States that now has its headquarters in Japan can not cover the vast Indo-Pacific from a single hand, nor can it provide the force of attack that the US. UU They would need a war. An additional attack group would also allow the United States to increase the patrols of the South China Sea, including the international waters of the Taiwan Strait. Involving United States allies in these patrols would promote the interest of like-minded nations in protecting freedom of navigation.
US forces must also be prepared to respond in kind to the Chinese provocation. China's challenge of a US destroyer UU Near the Spratly Islands last month It was an example of passive aggression. China has recently carried out cyber attacks against companies, including defense contractors. The government of the United States is also a frequent target; China launched a cyber attack at the Naval War College in early 2006. The White House published a new National Cybernetic Strategy last month, stating that the US. UU They will retaliate against all confirmed cyber attacks. This is sound deterrence. The administration will discourage China's provocations by imposing proportional punishments.
The United States' advantage in artificial intelligence could increase its advantage in the cybernetic and kinetic war in the coming years. AI will soon allow unmanned military platforms to operate against an enemy without immediate human direction. Imagine a school of small submersibles that can communicate with each other and sink an enemy ship. A greater emphasis on AI will ensure US military and naval dominance. UU Despite the accelerated pace of Chinese militarization. This predominance could be complicated by eliminating bureaucratic obstacles within the Department of Defense that delay the deployment of new technologies.
When it comes to regional alliances, no partner is more vital than Taiwan, the boldest active resistor of China's territorial claims. The Trump administration has approved two arms sales to Taipei since June and should expand cooperation with Taiwanese forces. I know. UU And Taiwan should become familiar by arranging meetings between senior diplomats and military officers, and welcoming warships in each other's ports. The United States must also provide assistance for Taiwan's nascent submarine program. A more robust defense of Taiwan, especially against an amphibious blockade or assault, would raise the cost for China to seize the island by force.
Another priority is greater attention to Japanese security. President Trump's strong relationship with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should lead to closer collaboration in the seas. Tokyo has begun to significantly improve its defensive capacity, and the USA. UU They should help their development with a greater transfer of arms. Together with Taiwan, Japanese forces could be integrated into a joint command and control center that would monitor the coastal waters of both nations.
Finally, the EE. UU They should strengthen their naval and marine presence on the northern coast of Australia. Beijing must understand that US allies UU They will vigorously challenge any attempt to control the straits of the archipelago between the Indian and Pacific oceans.
The maritime approach of the US-China clash reverses the dynamics of the Cold War, which was a mainly land confrontation. In the Cold War, the USA. UU They asked the naval forces to assault the Soviets on their naval flanks and distract them from the heart of Germany. A key goal today should be to distract China from its naval ambitions by pressuring Beijing for its continental vulnerabilities.
Russia is the most obvious. The United States should encourage the numerous conflicts in Moscow and Beijing, such as the control of Central Asia and the extraction of resources from the Arctic.
The large Uighur population in China is a problem that promises to become more irritating to Beijing. Their dispute over Tibetan sovereignty dates back to the 13th century, with no resolution in sight. These are complications in China's persistent effort to consolidate its empire, and the United States must renew its ties with these oppressed minorities to maintain commitment in the speech of Vice President Pence.
The United States should also support India in its effort to compete with the China Belt and Road initiative, a plan to integrate and dominate Asian trade with Europe. The American industry can form partnerships with India to modernize its ports and land transport systems.
Mr. Pence promised that the United States would remain the dominant power of the Pacific. He identified China as the greatest challenger. He correctly observed that China has a "whole government" approach to promote its hegemonic ambitions. To protect the security of the United States, help the allies, defend the economic interests of the United States and show that Washington is not disconnecting from the world, the Trump administration should also resort to all the tools at its disposal. The objective in this strategic competition, as Ronald Reagan once said: "We win, they lose".
Mr. Cropsey is the director of the American Seapower Center at the Hudson Institute. He served as naval officer and deputy assistant secretary of the Navy at Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and is the author of "Seablindness" (Encuentro, 2017).
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