China could announce a "total exclusion zone" at any time
China could announce a "total exclusion zone" at any time
With all the coverage of North Korea over the past year, it is easy to forget about the other important legacy of the Cold War that still haunts the East Asian region. Even though the fratricidal war ideologically infused among the Koreans never really ended, the same can be said, to some extent, of the Chinese Civil War. In fact, few can remember these days that the destinations of Korea and Taiwan were intrinsically related. If the armies of Kim Il-sung had not attacked the south in June 1950, it is likely that Taiwan, the "Republic of China", did not exist. American leaders had already concluded in late 1949 that the United States should not defend Chinese nationalists in Taiwan. Truman declared with great clarity on January 5, 1950: "The United States does not have predatory designs in Formosa or in any other Chinese territory ... [and would refrain from involvement] in the civil conflict in China. " That decision was only reversed due to the fateful election of Kim Il-sung, of course.
The point of this column of the Dragon's Eye is not a repetition of this story or the arguments. for or against American Defense of Taiwan. Rather, the leaders of the USA. UU And the American public needs some awareness of what Chinese strategists are saying about the "beautiful island," as a prerequisite for sound policy in Washington. In a word, these discussions are quite obscure and suggest that the possibility of a "bolt of blue" can no longer be so remote. A couple of articles in mid-2018 in Chinese usually technically oriented. defense magazine Artillery Science and Industry [兵工科技] It provides an internal view of Chinese strategic thinking with respect to Taiwan.
The first article never really mentions the word "Taiwan." This is not surprising, since the issue, for at least the last decade, has been considered too sensitive to be seriously discussed in China's defense press. Rather, the direct subject under study in this piece is the "blocking [封锁], "and the reason for China's close interest in the issue is obvious to all." At first, the author explains that a blockade campaign against a given island objective is quite simple, "... taking the naval forces as the main element." and coordinated With the ground, the air, the strategic rocket, the space and the cybernetic forces, actions are taken to control a certain maritime area. [以海军力量为主, 在陆军, 空军, 战略火箭军, 天军, 网军配合下采取 . . . 多种手段控制一个海域] And to prevent passage through it by enemy forces. "
A series of historical analogies are offered and discussed. It is observed that the German submarines impacted the British shipment just three days after the declaration of war during the Second World War. The use of marine mines is a disturbingly common theme in this blockage analysis. It is noted that Germany placed thirty thousand marine mines during World War II and these mines sank 280 allied warships and 296 merchant ships. In addition, this analysis also notes that US B-29s dropped 12,035 marine mines to the marine areas surrounding Japan. It is explained: "For the loss less than 15 airplanes, the army of the United States. . . managed to sink or damage 670 Japanese vessels, which severely cut off Japan's shipping nodes [美军 . . . 以损失15架飞机的微少代价取得了击沉击伤日本670艘舰船的战绩基本切断了日本的海上交通线]. "The threat of the mine of the Army of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLAN) it was enough To block Taiwan ten years ago. These capabilities have only increased since then in relation to various countermeasures.
More contemporary examples are also discussed. In a previous piece, I had written that the Taiwan scenario could present a "Cuban missile crisis in reverse", so it is not surprising that Chinese strategists are exploring this historical episode. Here, the Chinese author tells how the United States built an immense armada off the Cuban coast that amounted to 240 warships, eight aircraft carriers and 386 aircraft. With evident admiration, the author writes that this force "achieved the objective of a deterrent blockade, forcing the Soviets to surrender. [达到了威慑封锁的目的迫使前苏联作出让步]. "
Likewise, this Chinese strategist also praises Britain's effort in the Falklands War, noting that London was able to build several rings for its "Total Exclusion Zone", which "succeeded in the objective of blocking and seizing the Falkland Islands". The special role of the nuclear submarines in that particular campaign is duly noted, on the other hand. Another example mentioned is the effort of the Coalition forces during the Persian Gulf War, in which it is said that 250 ships and more than 500 aircraft created a "blockade combat system". [封锁作战系统]The analysis concludes: "Without supremacy, we can not speak of blockade operations." Therefore, maritime and air control are considered to be the decisive facilitators.It is not surprising that the docks of China are full of activity these days.
Another article in that same magazine takes the discussion one step further. This article describes the movements of the Air Force of the PLA (PLAAF, for its acronym in English) to undertake an "island involvement patrol". [绕岛巡航]"Operations in the last two years. It is said that these air missions involving departures on the eastern side of Taiwan have provided the PLAAF crews with excellent experience and show that the long-range combat capability of the PLAAF has improved. There is some boast that such missions have been "standardized [常态化]"E" institutionalized [体系化]. "It is not surprising that the analysis does not have particularly kind words for US actions:" United States. . . employs all methods to stir up the South China Sea and meddle in Taiwan's problem in China. " The article acknowledges that American warships (and all others) have the right to sail across the Taiwan Strait, but says that this activity demonstrates the "obvious political and military United States intentions." It adds that "shipping [U.S.] officials to Taiwan activities repeatedly. . . It has aroused the just indignation of the masses. [多次派遣官员赴台活动 . . . 引起了民众的愤慨]. "
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