At the Istanbul Summit, Russia seeks a role as mediator of the Syrian war
At the Istanbul Summit, Russia seeks a role as mediator of the Syrian war
ISTANBUL: Russia used a four-nation summit on Saturday to consolidate its new role as an agent of power in the Middle East and attract European funds to rebuild Syria after its war ends.
It was the first time that Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met to discuss Syria, bringing together four leaders with an interest in ending the war and resolving the refugee crisis that it provoked.
The summit focused on the preconditions for resuscitating an international peace process, with the four leaders calling for the creation of a special committee that will be tasked with drafting a new Syrian constitution.
The pre-eminent role of Russia was shown during the post-summit press conference, when the questions touched on the tenuous cease-fire mediated by Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan in the northern province of Idlib in September with the creation of a demilitarized zone.
"We have the Turkish side to ensure the completion in the near future of the withdrawal of the opposition from the demilitarized zone," Putin said. "If the radical elements achieve this goal, carrying armed provocations in the Idlib area, Russia reserves the right to provide effective support to the decisive actions of the Syrian government to eliminate this focus of terrorist threat."
The meeting culminated months of Russian initiatives to portray a measure of stability in Syria after its intervention in 2015 that helped turn the war in favor of President Bashar al-Assad.
Now, Mr. Putin seems to favor a political agreement on the prolonged and bloody war.
Moscow favored solution It would be an international agreement that recognizes Mr. Assad as the ruler of the country and that returns millions of refugees to reactivate economic activity. But that is currently a remote perspective. So far, Western countries refuse to participate in the Assad regime and Syria remains insecure for refugees to return, according to the UN refugee agency.
The EU underlines that it will help in the reconstruction of Syria only when a "comprehensive, genuine and inclusive political transition ... is under way".
However, the four heads of state agree that there is no military solution to the Syrian war, only a negotiated settlement, and may be able to lay the groundwork for further talks, said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Council on International Affairs. from Russia, a state -corre think tank.
"This is one of the few areas where Russia and the main European players can, if not eliminate, narrow the gap between them," he said. "There has never been a frank discussion about specific preconditions for European participation in Syria."
As Assad's troops, backed by Russian air power and the allied land forces of Iran, have recaptured most of the territory Once in the hands of the anti-government rebels, Russia has taken steps to suggest that the country is returning to normalcy.
In July, Moscow sent a proposal to Washington to Repatriate together about 1.7 million Syrian refugees. from Lebanon, Turkey and Europe. Although it never took off, the proposal illustrated how Moscow's strategy for Syria often aligns with that of Assad.
"The return of the refugees would give Assad legitimacy," said Kheder Khaddour, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. To encourage the return of the refugees, Mr. Assad earlier this month granted amnesty from the prison to army deserters, although without exempting them from military service, many of whom fled in the first place.
The other military ally of Assad, Iran, pursues an agenda that sometimes disagrees with his.
Iran has raised irregular militias of Syrians and foreigners who respond to Tehran about the Syrian government. Tehran wants influence in Damascus as a bulwark against Israel and a channel for Hezbollah militias in Lebanon, Khaddour said.
In contrast, Russia has worked to centralize power in Damascus and strengthen the regular army of Assad, and mediates between Syria and Iran, and Israel.
"Russia wants the whole country to be stable. He wants regional stability, "Khaddour said.
More recently, Russia successfully negotiated, with Turkey, a demilitarized zone in Idlib province, in northern Syria, to temporarily prevent an offensive by the Assad government in the last rebel stronghold there.
Russia has also reached influence beyond Syria, often intervening where the footprint of the United States has diminished. It has sold anti-aircraft missile systems S-400 to Turkey, as the relationship between Ankara and the NATO alliance was ruined. Earlier this year, Russia tried to sell $ 1 billion worth of weapons under conditions favorable to debt-laden Lebanon, an agreement that ultimately failed in the United States.
And as Saudi Arabia is subjected to global pressure intensified by the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Putin has refrained from criticizing the kingdom, unlike the United States, where relations with the Saudis have become strained.
"There is an official statement from the king, a statement from the crown prince. Essentially, no one should have any reason not to believe it, "Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call to reporters on Friday.
The Saudi version of events has changed several times; to deny Mr. Khashoggi's death to alleging that he died in a fight now recognizing that there evidence that his murder was premeditated.
-David Gauthier-Villars contributed to this article.
Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen in sune.rasmussen@wsj.com
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