An increase of the marginal legislator to the presidential candidate
An increase of the marginal legislator to the presidential candidate
Just two months ago, few people in Brazil, apart from the most fervent supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, believed that the right-wing congressman had more than an outside chance of winning the race to lead the largest nation in Latin America.
Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva went ahead at the polls for a year despite a conviction for corruption and a jail sentence that began in April.
Although Bolsonaro was always second in the polls, his support was around 30 percent and analysts said he had probably reached his ceiling. His story of offensive comments for women, blacks and gays, combined with his praise of the military dictatorship of 1964-1985 and the 27 years mostly in Congress, created the general impression that, although he survived the first round of voting , Finally Be defeated against almost any competitor in the second round.
But then several things happened that helped to elevate the former army captain to the leader: Bolsonaro was stabbed and almost killed, the traditional left and right coalitions collapsed and it became evident that social networks had replaced television time as the strongest force. dominant in the world. choices.
Those events resonated in a nation hungry for radical change after years of turmoil that provoked the wrath of the ruling class.
In the first round of voting on October 7, Bolsonaro performed much better than expected, almost winning directly with 46 percent of the vote, compared to 29 percent of Fernando Haddad of the Workers' Party. . Polls prior to the second round on Sunday showed 56 percent of voter intentions, compared to 42 percent for Haddad.
Throughout all this, Bolsonaro's simple campaign promises to clean up corruption and confront the increase in crime with brutal force and has resonated with a population that is eager for new approaches.
"As it did Donald Trump To be president in the United States? "said Carlos Manhanelli, a specialist in political marketing and president of the Brazilian Association of Political Consultants." It is basically the same. Bolsonaro is speaking to the minds of the voters. He does not care about being politically correct. "
The expected front against Bolsonaro has not materialized, but seems to go the other way. That was underlined when Senator-elect Cid Gomes, brother of the third presidential candidate Ciro Gomes, attacked supporters of the Workers' Party at a rally in support of Haddad after the first round.
Gomes, a member of the center-left Labor Democratic Party, blamed the Workers' Party for "creating" Bolsonaro because he had not wanted to admit his role in the so-called corruption scandal "Carwash", considered by many to be the largest Tal scheme in the history of the world.
Launched four years ago, the investigation of bribes to politicians through inflated construction contracts knocked down many of the country's biggest names, including Da Silva, who was found guilty of exchanging favors with Grupo OAS for the promise of an apartment Oceanfront.
"You have to do a 'mea culpa.' You have to apologize," Gomes said as the crowd booed. "You have to have some humility and recognize that you did a lot of shit."
"You're going to lose in an ugly way," he said.
In fact, the Workers' Party, which ruled from 2003 to 2016, never fully admitted the mistakes nor looked beyond da Silva, whom Brazilians call Lula, as its standard-bearer. Instead, he has argued that Da Silva's conviction was part of a conspiracy between right-wing parties and the judicial system to prevent him from running.
Although the decision of the electoral tribunal of September 1 to prohibit the candidacy of da Silva was expected for a long time, the party did not present Haddad as its replacement until September 11, less than a month before the first round of voting .
"Haddad should have presented himself much earlier," said Sergio Praca, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation think tank, arguing that the relatively unknown candidate had little time to help the party overcome the corruption stain.
On the right, the traditional power of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party never gained strength. The reasons were twofold: many members of the party have been tarnished by the corruption scandal and its standard-bearer, the former governor of Sao Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, did not generate enthusiasm despite having most of the free airtime, granted according to the representation of the party in Congress.
While the 13 presidential candidates were maneuvering for a final push, the race was canceled on September 6, when Bolsonaro was stabbed while campaigning in Juiz de Fora, a small town 200 kilometers north of Rio de Janeiro.
The arrested man, Adelio Bispo de Oliveira, seems to have acted alone and mentally ill. According to the police, he said he attacked by order of God.
For Bolsonaro, the near-death experience gave his campaign a great boost. Although he was hospitalized for three weeks and was unable to campaign on the streets, his terrible experience dominated media coverage. This was particularly significant for a candidate who was only assigned a few seconds of free television time each day.
Instead of having to debate or defend his ideas, Bolsonaro stayed in his hospital bed and continued trying to disguise the themes of his campaign through Facebook Lives and Twitter.
His campaign prevented all media companies, with the exception of the friendly ones, from visiting him and announced that he would skip several debates by order of the doctors. Even after being discharged at the end of September, Bolsonaro avoided debates during the last month, citing his health.
Haddad tried to embarrass Bolsonaro in a debate, saying he would be willing to meet his rival anywhere. He and his supporters also argued energetically that Bolsonaro represented a clear risk to Brazil's young democracy. But those concerns seem to have been largely hidden in social networks, where Bolsonaro's campaign surpassed that of Haddad.
Beyond the numerous messages and daily tweets of Bolsonaro and his three eldest sons, all politicians, the campaign has made a massive effort in the WhatsApp messaging service. In recent weeks, Brazilians have been bombarded by messages that exalt Bolsonaro and condemn Haddad, often making outrageous claims.
Along the way, the Bolsonaro campaign may have violated campaign financing laws. A research report by the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper last week claimed that friendly entrepreneurs were funding the WhatsApp effort, which led to an investigation by the electoral tribunal. Bolsonaro has been responding since then with the types of aggressive tweets and videos that thrill supporters.
The newspaper "is the biggest false news in Brazil," Bolsonaro said in a video aired on Sunday at supporters at a rally. "You will not receive more publicity money from the government, the press is exhausted, my condolences."
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DiLorenzo reported from Sao Paulo.
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Follow Peter Prengaman: twitter.com/peterprengaman
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