America needs a better strategy to compete with China, or war is inevitable
America needs a better strategy to compete with China, or war is inevitable
A defining question of the 21st century is whether a third world war between China and the United States is inevitable, or whether these potential adversaries can find a way to coexist. At this moment, the two countries seem to be on a path that leads to a kinetic conflict, even when new technologies are changing the character of the war and the world security landscape is changing.
The United States is approaching this new era with a creed of "great power competition", granting a place of honor to military lethality. In truth, the Pentagon has been longing for a real enemy for some time, the kind that puts order in both grand strategy and a messy world. Even so, the cultural transition from GWOT to Great Power has been rapid. It turns out that an aircraft carrier can actually light a penny, even if only metaphorically.
However, a shift change is the concept of "competitive space". Even though Secretary Mattis points out the importance of competitive space in global affairs and the primacy of non-military power and international associations to shape that space, the United States is concentrating its investments in inherited arms and confrontational diplomacy.
Despite the intoxicating words, this is actually a moment of strategic distraction for the United States, plunged into political divisions in the country and regional battles abroad.
China, meanwhile, has been seeking to define "competitive space" for some time. From the minerals of the information age in Africa to the cultural reach of Hollywood, the Chinese are making strategic investments around the world.
A signing effort, the Belt and Road Initiative, supposedly means trillions of dollars in "Win win" infrastructure improvements for some 65 countries, from the Port of Gwadar to the Panama Canal. At the same time, China is investing money in its armed forces and making increasingly aggressive movements in the South China Sea and elsewhere. Everything is based on the shaky foundation of an autocratic and aggressive personality cult, but no one would say that the Chinese lack a strategic focus.
At this unfavorable moment for the community of great power, there may be an opportunity for other countries to play a constructive and catalytic role (Russia, by contrast, seems determined to play a destructive and impunity role). Yes public opinion In any indicator, there are three nations with broad global support: Germany, Canada and Japan.
Of course, there is an irony, given that two of those countries are only a generation away from being the villains of the last world war. Perhaps Germany and Japan learned lessons about the defeat that positions them better today for a different kind of geopolitical leadership, one based more on economic strength, diplomacy and foreign aid than on military offensive power. Playing their strengths as security builders instead of war fighters would also position these countries to face the security challenges of the latter part of this century, which will not all be military in nature.
Perhaps this is an arc of civility that will help save a liberal world order.
In that sense, the United States needs a broader strategy. While a strong and modernized army is an important deterrent and contrary to discrete aggression, the United States should have a plan to achieve a final state other than World War III.
If it turns out that World War II is really inevitable, then the United States will also need more than military means to prevail. Investments in a strong political economy are crucial. The industrial base, from natural resources to research and development and good jobs in an automated future, is a fundamental strategic strength, which China clearly recognizes.
Finally, in war or peace, and in all shades of gray in the middle, the United States should be looking once again to cooperate with global partners, whether that means building on mutual interests or facing common enemies and challenges. Such cooperation requires a positive commitment to the world through development, trade, culture, investment and alliances and political and military associations.
That means a comprehensive strategy not only to win a war, but also to win peace, even better, to win without fighting.
Sharon E. Burke is a Senior Advisor in New America, where she directs the Phase Zero project. He served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense 1994-2000, in the Policy Planning staff in the State Department of 2002-2005, and as Undersecretary of Defense of Operational Energy for 2010-2014.
This article by Sharon Burke originally appeared in the task and purpose. Follow the task and the purpose in Twitter . This article appeared for the first time in 2018.
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