According to one study, tornadoes are turning eastward in the US UU
According to one study, tornadoes are turning eastward in the US UU
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During the last decades twisterChanges have been changing, declining in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, but are increasing in states along the Mississippi River and further east, according to a recent study. The scientists are not quite sure why.
Tornado activity is increasing in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan, according to a study published in the Climate and Atmospheric Science magazine on Wednesday. There has been a slight decrease in the Great Plains, with the largest fall in central and eastern Texas. Even with the decline, Texas continues to receive the most tornadoes of any state.
The change could be deadly because the area with the most tornado activity is larger and hosts more people, said the study's lead author, Victor Gensini, a professor of atmospheric science at Northern Illinois University. In addition, more people live in vulnerable mobile homes and tornadoes are more likely to occur at night in those places, he said.
Although Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma get many more tornadoes, the four deadliest states for tornadoes are Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee and Arkansas, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"More people are generally at risk because of that shift to the east," Gensini said.
Because tornadoes are sometimes not counted, especially in the past and in less populated areas, scientists do not like to study trends using tornado counts. Gensini and tornado scientist Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory examined the "significant tornado parameters," a measure of the key ingredients of tornado conditions. Observe the differences between the speed and direction of the wind at different altitudes, how unstable the air and humidity are. The more of those three ingredients, the more likely it is that tornadoes form.
The increases in this measure reflected slightly smaller increases found in the number of twisters.
The study observed changes since 1979. Everywhere east of the Mississippi, except on the west coast of Florida, an increase in tornado activity is observed. The largest increase occurred in the states bordering the Mississippi River.
In general, there is a slight increase in tornado activity, but it is not too much or almost what is happening in the east, Gensini said.
Why is this happening?
"We do not know," said Gensini. "This is super consistent with climate change."
As the Great Plains dry, there is less moisture to have the kind of tornadoes that generate tornadoes, Gensini said. Tornadoes form along the "dry line" where there are more thunderstorms because there is dry air to the west and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico to the east.
That dry line is moving to the east.
"This is what we would expect in a climate change scenario, we simply have no way of confirming it at this time," Gensini said.
Gensini said that unless there are specific detailed studies, he and others can not say that this is caused by global warming, only that it is similar to what is expected.
Pennsylvania State University meteorology professor Paul Markowski, who was not part of the research, praised the study for being careful and well done.
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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter: @borenbears.
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The Associated Press Department of Science and Health receives support from the Department of Science Education at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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