& # 039; This week & # 039; Transcript 10-21-18: Representative Schiff & amp; King Rep. Sen. Cruz...
& # 039; This week & # 039; Transcript 10-21-18: Representative Schiff & amp; King Rep. Sen. Cruz & amp; Rep. O & # 039; Rourke
Below is an urgent transcript of "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on Sunday, October 21, 2018 on ABC News. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated. To see the transcripts of the previous program, visit "This week" transcript file.
ANNOUNCER: This week with George Stephanopoulos begins at this time.
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ANCIAN HEAD OF NEWS ABC: Diplomatic crisis. Saudi Arabia confirms the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi blaming him for a first fight that went wrong.
UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Do you consider it credible, his explanation?
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Yes. I do. Once again, it's early. We have not finished our review.
STEPHANOPOULOS: President Trump says the Saudis have taken a good first step. But lawmakers and leaders around the world call it a cover-up, which calls for tougher action on the part of President Trump and the Saudi kingdom. How will this growing crisis impact the security and national stability of the United States?
In the Middle East?
We are live in Turkey with the latest.
In addition, the editor of Jamal Khashoggi of The Washington Post and the key members of the House intelligence committee.
And run at the end ...
TRUMP: Do you promise, leave this site, go out and vote right now?
STEPHANOPOULOS: Only 16 days from half of the periods, both parts in force.
TRUMP: This will be a choice of Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order and common sense.
JOE BIDEN, FORMER VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This election is literally bigger than politics.
MIKE PENCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We are going to build a red wall right here.
SEN. BERNIE SANERS, I-VERMONT: Get up, fight and vote.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Trump is on the ballot. The future of his presidency on the line. Will that shout of personal reunion save the House of Representatives and the Senate or the Republican Party or will it lead the Democrats to victory? We are on the road in Texas with the Senate candidates Ted cross and Beto O'Rourke. Also, Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight with his latest medium-term forecast and our Powerhouse roundtable.
We will break down the policy, we will drown the money, the facts that matter this week.
ANNOUNCER: From ABC News, it's this week. Here now the main anchor George Stephanopoulos.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Good morning and welcome to this week.
We began this morning with the deepening of the crisis by the disappearance of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. After weeks of denials in the face of mounting evidence, Saudi Arabia finally admitted on Friday night that Khashoggi was killed at his consulate in Turkey. But that concession has only intensified the global critique of the kingdom and its stubborn crown prince.
And last night, President Trump withdrew from his prior acceptance of the Saudi front page
stories. "There have been deceptions and lies," he told The Washington Post.
But Trump also called Saudi Arabia an incredible ally and has not come to the conclusion that Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman was behind the assassination. "No one told me he is responsible, nobody told me he is not responsible," Trump said.
The big question now, will the Turkish audio tapes of the murder prove that the Saudis are still lying about what happened? Can the Crown Prince continue as leader of Saudi if he is shown an accomplice in the murder? And how will Presient Trump and the world respond?
Our senior foreign correspondent Ian Pannell is on the ground in Istanbul with the latest. Ian, thanks for joining us this morning.
Let's start with that Saudi cover story. Now they say it started as a conversation, which turned into a fist fight, ended with a strangulation in Khashoggi. But, you know, one of the first questions why it took them almost three weeks to invent this story after they said for the first time that he had left.
consulate on your own?
IAN PANNELL, ABC NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDING FOREIGN: Yes, that's right. There are a number of key inconsistencies in the history that they have given us, and if those audio tapes exist, and hopefully that will clarify the veracity of that explanation.
First, there is an argument that was issued by the Saudi prosecutor that Jamal Khashoggi had expressed an interest in returning to Saudi Arabia. This is something that your closest friends have said is absolutely false. If there are audio tapes, I should reveal that.
Secondly, this statement that there was a kind of fight or a fist fight: keep in mind that it was a 59 year old boy who was not in a perfect physical form. Did you get into this kind of fight? Again, the tapes will show if he did it or not. And that is the key, because it will establish whether this murder was premeditated or not.
Those horrible details have arisen about him being dismembered in some way. This is something that the Saudis have said anonymously that they have said is not true. Those critical tapes for
establishing that, something that the Turks might well want to get out there.
And finally, where is the body? The Saudis have claimed that they passed it to some kind of intermediary here in Istanbul, but they do not know where it is. Is that credible?
STEPHANOPOULOS: Turkish sources have spoken about the tapes, some reports that CIA officials have also listened to the tapes. What do we know if the Turks are willing to release them publicly?
PANNELL: Yes, the Turks have been under a lot of pressure to release them publicly, and I'm not feeling any indication that that is going to happen. The public and the press do not know the full content, but the alleged content has been actively reported. There have been many question marks, well, why do not you put them out there? That would clear up this problem and we would know it once and for all.
The answer is not entirely clear, but the indications are if they were bothering the consulate behind me or if they used some kind of method they do not want to reveal; in other words, a method that they 'By employing in other embassies, in other consulates, that would explain why, this is an act of the intelligence services.
STEPHANOPOULOS: The Saudis have arrested some Saudi citizens. They dismissed other senior officials. One of the other big questions, is it possible that a team of more than a dozen Saudis could come to Turkey, carry out this operation without the knowledge and acceptance and, in fact, the direction of the Crown Prince?
PANNELL: Yes, I think that goes to the heart of the argument that has been exposed, how credible, how credible it is. And now we are seeing expressions of doubt, and not only of President Trump, Europeans in particular have said that they want to see more information available.
This is why it is partially problematic, because they are saying that this was an operation initiated by the deputy intelligence chief. But they also report that there is now a general order to try to persuade the dissidents to return to Saudi Arabia in a peaceful way. That is a quote that has been provided by a high-level Saudi source to The New York Times and Reuters.
If that is true, what is the probability in a monarchical and absolutist system that an assistant intelligence chief will go against these orders, start this type of operation and murder a man who was Mohammad bin Salman's best-known critic? .
STEPHANOPOULOS: And until now, at least, the king of Saudi Arabia who is behind his son, the crown prince?
PANNELL: yes. I mean, there are many questions. At one point, it looked like he might be vulnerable. But this explanation, if it is bought by the Trump administration, also by European governments, may be enough. But, yes, there are questions out there at the time about who knew exactly what was happening there and how credible those explanations are.
But that statement of support from King Salman came in the form of appointing Mohammad bin Salman as head of the committee that is considering the restructuring of Saudi intelligence as a result of this assassination. That is a strong statement of support.
We have also seen it from President Trump as well. And it will be reduced to this, George. It could be said that President Trump has been the most honest, compared to European leaders and presidents, in saying that the United States depends not only on energy but also on trade relations.
The Europeans do it too. The economy of the United States is absolutely dependent for these arms deals. If it is a choice between energy and trade versus human rights, I believe that history will dictate that we know in what direction governments are going to act.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Ian Pannell, thank you very much.
Let's talk now with Karen Attiah of The Washington Post, the editor of Jamal Khashoggi in The Post.
Karen, thanks for joining us this morning. We saw what President Trump said to his newspaper last night. His first reaction to the cover story of Saudi Arabia is much more concise, "absolute B.S."
KAREN ATTIAH, EDITOR OF GLOBAL OPINIONS, WASHINGTON POST: Yes, I still believe and The Post as an institution still believes that this is not an explanation, it is an attempt to cover up. So much for me, personally, that I did not know Jamal, he worked with Jamal in the last year.
You know, this idea: in the first place, this idea that he wanted to return to Saudi Arabia is absolutely false. There is a reason why he came to Washington and felt free in Washington. He did not want to be arrested. He did not want to face the same fate as many of his acquaintances and associates who have been dragged by this wave of repression.
I knew that, at least, according to MBS, Saudi Arabia was not safe. So this idea is, I think, that he wanted to go back, it seems to me that it is not true.
And secondly, you know, this idea of a fight, you know, this kind, calm and gentle man, who had any kind of fight that was the same. In any case, if we are going to give some kind of credibility to this, he entered into an ambush that was prepared for him.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Khashoggi was not yet a legal permanent resident of the United States, even though he was working here for The Washington Post. Do you think that the government of the United States did enough to protect it?
ATTIAH: I mean, the first questions we have, looking at the report that there was intelligence, intelligence from the United States, that there was a plan coming from Mohammad bin Salman, connected to him, that he planned to capture or try to attract Khashoggi. to Saudi Arabia, they did not inform me, Jamal never told me about any kind of physical threat to him.
He knew there were mild attempts to try to stop him writing for The Post, and try to get it back. But as for the threats, at least he never mentioned them to me. But he only knew there was pressure, there was increasing pressure on him and particularly on his family.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, why do you think the Saudis were so worried about him? He was a relatively moderate dissident, right?
ATTIAH: Right, and in any case, he, to begin with, hated the dissident word. He said: "I want to say what I want to say, and if something reads your work, it is a very constructive criticism, but also one that showed the desire to see Saudi Arabia on the right track."
I felt that I wanted to advise MBS with constructive solutions. Now, one thing about Jamal in particular that made him so - as valuable as - as a source for - in Saudi Arabia and what was happening is that he was very close to the royal family.
He was an advisor to the royal court for a long time and was widely seen as an intruder, and this turn became more of a critic, particularly a critic of the behavior of Mohammad Bin Salman during the last year. .
So, you know, if there was ... if this was perhaps part of an attempt to silence what you may have known about the inner workings of the Saudi royal family, that is absolutely possible. But once again, we know that his writing for the Post especially irritated those in Riyadh.
STEPHANOPOULOS: What do you and the Washington Post want President Trump to do now?
ATTIAH: Right now, you know, Trump said over the weekend that, at least, once again, this supposed Saudi explanation is a first step. I refer to this admission that Jamal was killed at the hands of Saudi men, if it is a first step, then it means that there is room for the administration to process it as relentlessly as it should.
I think that what is at stake is extremely high, not only because it is a man or a journalist who worked for the Post, but that there is a lot at stake for all the critics, all the dissidents at this moment who are extremely scared and who now feel that the Saudi regime or any other regime now has a free reign or a free pass to go to other countries and catch people just for having an opinion.
And I think we would like or want to, and we have been actively asking the administration to, first, cooperate and obtain all the necessary evidence to discover what happened.
And if necessary to impose consequences, including penalties, including possible cancellations or suspensions of arms deals. Human life should not have a price tag.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Karen Attiah, thank you very much for your time this morning. We regret your loss.
ATTIAH: Thanks.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Now we have two key members of the House Intelligence Committee, the Democrat of rank Adam Schiff, the Republican Peter King. And Congressman Schiff, let me start with you.
He received reports on this situation and said that the cover story of Saudi Arabia is not credible. What else can you tell us about what you know?
REP. ADAM SCHIFF (D), CALIF: Well, I have received detailed information from some of the members of the intelligence community about what they know, what they can tell us at this time and although I can not get into the essence of this, I can tell you that I do not think this Saudi account is credible at all.
There's simply no way they can send such a big team and Khashoggi gets involved in some kind of fight with them unless he's just fighting for his life. But I think we can see where this is going.
Ultimately, the president will accept the denials of the crown prince, but I can hardly imagine that these orders would have been carried out without the knowledge of the crown prince.
I think this should be an event that alters the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, that we must suspend military sales, we must suspend certain security assistance and we must impose sanctions on anyone who was directly involved in this murder.
This really should be something that makes us reexamine our relationship with Saudi Arabia.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Do you agree with that, Congressman King?
REP. PETER KING (R), NEW YORK: I think that in the first place, the president should go further in this regard, since this is a first step. That's all it is. It really is not a credible first step. The important thing is that they admit that they killed him when he was in his custody. But there is no way that a person, basically an overweight civilian, should be killed when facing 12 or 15 professionals. They could have knocked it down in a matter of seconds without causing any physical damage.
So, obviously, there was an intention, I think, to kill him. That is number one. Number two, however, we have a relationship with Saudi Arabia that we should try to maintain. Listen, during the Obama administration, I led the fight in the House of Representatives to allow the 9/11 families to sue Saudi Arabia. President Obama fought us every step of the way: we had to cancel his veto. So all presidents want to maintain some kind of relationship. But where Adam and I, I think, can agree that this relationship can not allow a savagery like this. Then, I would ask the president to try to thread the needle here, if it is to impose sanctions, if it is to delay the sale of weapons, make a clear statement of conviction at the end, but without hurting us.
Because the Saudis provide very effective intelligence, they are a bulwark against Iran and have been working closely with Israel. If you put all that together, we have to try to balance it. The world is not so simple. But, again, what happened here was savagery and we can not continue with its cover story.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So, then, then Congressman Schiff, who directed (ph) answers the question, if he's trying to balance this, thread the needle, if the crown prince was really behind this, and by most accounts, Is the real power behind the throne in Saudi Arabia at this time, can the United States work with him?
SCHIFF: Well, we'll never know exactly what happened in terms of the marching orders of the crown prince for this group unless we get a confession from the crown prince that it will not happen. The people who were involved in this murder are not going to talk. So we're never going to have absolute certainty. It is for that reason that I believe that the president will accept the denials of the crown prince, just as he accepted Putin's refusals and Kim's refusals. So I think that is the reality.
But nevertheless, I think we can treat this very seriously and send a message to the crown prince that we will not tolerate the killing of journalists, that we will tolerate these extrajudicial and extraterritorial murders. Have a real consequence I think part of the reason why we are where we are is that we have essentially sent a message through the Trump family that it is carte blanche for the Saudi family. They can do whatever they want where they want and the US. UU They will never face them.
And that kind of policy has to come to an end.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Other Democrats, Congressman King, have said that part of the reason is that the Trump organization, the Trump family, is actually benefiting from its ties to the Saudis. Should the president disclose all information related to his financial links with the Saudi kingdom?
KING: Well, first of all, I think it's wrong to inject partisanship into this right now. Nobody supported the Saudis more than President Obama. The big arms business under President Obama. He fought tooth and nail against us, attacking Congress when we allowed the 9/11 families to sue the Saudis. He did everything he could to protect the Saudis. To make this type of accusations against the president, if you want to do it in three or four months, do it.
But the fact is that now the president is in a very delicate diplomatic place, just like President Obama. And I think at least for this, let's have some time out when it comes to making partisan shots. Let's deal with him on merits (ph). What Saudi Arabia did was savage, evil, to be condemned, but we are not questioning the motives of our president at this time. He must be the president of all people at this time. When the dust settles, your people can make the claims they want. But once again, I'm simply going back to the heat I endured in the Obama administration when I was fighting for the 9/11 families to sue the Saudis.
And that's the only time during the Obama administration that Congress could override its veto. But that's how strong it felt to protect the Saudis.
SCHIFF: George -
STEPHANOPOULOS: Go ahead.
SCHIFF: - if I could just add. I think we need, in the Intelligence Committee, to do a deep dive, an investigation in terms of Saudi Arabia in terms of the efforts of Saudi Arabia, the war in Yemen, the civilian victims there in terms of this murder. But we also have to determine if the financial motives are motivating the president and the first family. This is the problem with the president who does not publish his tax returns. It leaves the American people wondering if the policy of the Saudi United States is being driven by anything other than the national interest.
So I think we should demand answers from the administration.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Congressman King, one way to get to the bottom of this would be if the Turkish government released those audio tapes that they say they have of what happened inside the consulate. Should the United States require them to listen?
KING: I think one more time, that would be behind the scenes, but yes, the United States should listen to it, yes, I'm not saying that the American people have to listen to them now. No, our government, our intelligence agencies, I think they should have access to all this.
Believe me, let me clarify, I think the most amoral government of Saudi Arabia with which we have had to deal. I have no love for the Saudis. I have led the fight against them. And yes, I think whatever the Turkish government has, they should put it at our disposal.
And this could be an opportunity for us to strengthen our relations with the Turks, which has gone badly in recent years. But yes, they have an opportunity now to show us what they have.
It is important enough so that this does not turn into a fight between Erdogan and the Crown Prince, it is basically civilizations that come together to discover what happened, condemn it and do everything possible to make sure it does not happen again. .
And also to maintain our standards, our beliefs in human rights.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Congressman Schiff, do you agree with that?
SCHIFF: I agree with that, I think we should demand the audio recordings. I have to wait for Turkey to keep them suspended for now because they want to have this lever on the crown prince.
Obviously, there is a regional rivalry between these two countries and this manifests itself in a conflict in places like Syria and other places. But, but we should demand access to those recordings, we should demand the publication of those recordings.
And, frankly, the Turkish explanation, if it is one, that they do not want to betray their methods of intelligence gathering, they have already recognized that they have recordings. Then, there seems to be little additional harm to their methods in revealing what those recordings have to say and allowing the United States, and others to listen, to listen to those recordings.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We will finish with that note of agreement. Congressmen, thank you very much to both of you.
SCHIFF: Thanks.
KING: Thanks (inaudible) thanks Adam.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Next we are in the electoral campaign in Texas with Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke. More Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight with his prognosis at the minute of the partial exams. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Come back now with the final section of the partial exams in November. There are 16 days to go and tomorrow, President Trump will head to Texas with the hope of boosting Ted Cruz's bitter rival in 2016 in that surprisingly competitive Senate race with Congressman Beto O'Rourke. Paula Faris followed the path with both candidates.
(BEGINNING TO VIDEOTAPA)
REP. BETO O'RURKE (D), TEXAS: We have one of the most simple and obvious strategies that I have seen used in a modern campaign. Simply, literally, we appear everywhere all the time for all
PAULA FARIS, CORRESPONDING, ABC NEWS: You can not walk 10 feet without interruption from a Beto sponsor.
O'RURK: I love you too. Thank you all.
FARIS: You're a rock star.
BETO: No, no. There are so many great people that ...
FARIS: No, you really are. You can not go anywhere without getting ...
(CHEERS)
O'ROURKE: Hey.
FARIS: O'Rourke, a three-period congressman from El Paso, has also captured the attention of the nation and has raised a record $ 38 million in donations in the last quarter.
O'RUZO: There's a lot of energy out there, so, we're reflecting on what, what comes to us.
FARIS: But it's also receiving unwanted scrutiny.
President Trump has attacked you. He called you scale, he said we are, appointment, a total light weight.
O 'ERROR: I, I do not know what makes sense, answer. I think the kind of bitterness and, and the insult and partisanship that unfortunately have defined much of the national conversation, you can add more or you can concentrate on the Future and why you did this in the first place. And that is what we have chosen to do in this campaign. So --
FARIS: The great president who is approaching during the race is the president. When Senator Ted Cruz faced Trump in 2016, there were many insults.
SEN. TED CRUZ (R), TEXAS: This man is a pathological liar. A narcissist at a level that I do not think this country has ever seen.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Lyin 'Ted. I call him Lyin 'Ted. Hold the bible and then lower it and lie, okay? Lyin 'Ted.
FARIS: Cruz's opponent this time took a page out of Trump's playbook during one of his debates.
O'RURK: He is dishonest. That's why the president called him Lyin 'Ted and that's why the nickname got stuck, because it's true.
That was not the best phrase for me, but, you know, I'll do everything I can to focus on the future.
FARIS: For Cruz, the future of his career could be in the hands of his only enemy, Trump, who will campaign with Cruz this week in Texas.
FARIS: How do we make sense of this relationship?
CRUZ: Listen, 2016 was a choice like no other. I mean, it was a bare knuckle and there were some hard knocks, hard shots were everywhere. That choice is over. And you know, on the day of the 2016 elections, I really had a choice to make. I had a choice about what, what path I was going to follow.
And - and - and I could have chosen to hurt the feelings, take it personally and say, you know what, I'm going to take the marbles, I'm going home, I'm not going to work with the president
And - and - and if I put my personal feelings hurt before representing Texas, that would be abdicating my responsibility. So, what I did was go to the president and I said: Mr. President, we have a unique opportunity. History teaches us that this is very rare. A Republican president, Republican majorities in both houses. That has happened four times in the last 100 years.
FARIS: So, friend? Is he your friend? Is he your enemy? How would you describe your relationship?
CRUZ: He is the president. And he is the president. I work with the president to fulfill our promises.
FARIS: The president and the senator agree with most of the Republican agenda, but Trump's previous policy of family separation on the border is an area where Cruz broke with the administration.
FARIS: So, if this policy is restored, is this something that would challenge the president?
CROSS: Well, listen, this is something we should all join together. When, when it comes to family separation, everyone must agree. The right place for the children to be is with their parents.
FARIS: If it's about that, will you say, president, this is not the right policy?
CRUZ: Well, listen, I've been very clear with the president. We need to enforce the law but we must also keep families together.
FARIS: Cruz may be slightly to the left of the president on immigration, but O'Rourke has a completely different solution.
O'RURKE: If things are so desperate in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, that someone risks their lives to come here, what can we do to improve the conditions there? We have invested billions of dollars in our wars in the Middle East. Can we invest a fraction of that to restore stability in the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America to make sure that people have a reason to stay and raise their families where they were born?
FARIS: Even though Texas ranks last in voter turnout, it is not hard to find hard supporters on each side.
So, Maggie, is there a more fanatical supporter of Ted Cruz than you?
MAGGIE WRIGHT: No. I've done it, I've done everything possible. My car accident (ph), a billboard, and for my 50th wedding anniversary, my husband asked me what I wanted and I said:
FARIS: I'm afraid to know what you said.
WRIGHT: - I want Ted Cruz for president.
FARIS: He approaches me and unbuttons his jacket and shows me -
THOMAS TORLANCASI: My Superman Beto style for -
FARIS: - USA - Beto for the Senate.
Perhaps the enthusiasm this time could be translated into a vote.
UNIDENTIFIED MAN: And early voting on Monday, right?
O'RURK: Monday. That is ... that is the message. Monday Monday Monday Get it in the bank.
FARIS: FOR THIS WEEK, Paula Farris, ABC News, Texas.
(Final video)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Thanks to Paula for that. You can see more of his report tomorrow night on NIGHTLINE. And now we're joined by America's top political statistician, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, here to discuss his team's most recent forecast for the midterms.
Nate, thanks for joining us. So let's start with Texas, how do you see the race?
NATE SILVER, EDITOR EN JEFE, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: Entonces, las encuestas tienen a Cruz arriba por un margen bastante solemne, seis o siete puntos en promedio. Le damos aproximadamente un 80 por ciento de posibilidades de ganar.
Debemos decir que aunque Texas es un estado difícil de votar, Beto dependería de los votantes hispanos, los votantes jóvenes y las personas que recientemente emigraron a Texas. Si todos los votantes elegibles en Texas resultaran, esa podría ser una carrera muy cerrada.
Si no, puedes verlo obteniendo 47, 48 por ciento. Necesitas 50 para ganar. Y sigue siendo un estado muy rojo.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Hoy veremos mucho ese número 80 de su pronóstico. Veamos el pronóstico general del Senado.
PLATA: Sí, estamos en la zona 80, estamos en la zona 80 con muchas cosas.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Veamos el pronóstico del Senado. Lo vamos a poner ahora mismo. ¿Qué tenemos allí? Dos de cada nueve demócratas que ganan el control, siete de cada nueve republicanos que tienen la oportunidad mantienen el control, apenas por debajo del 80%, 79.
PLATA: Sí, y no es una coincidencia que sea muy similar al pronóstico de Texas, porque es difícil encontrar un camino claro para los demócratas en este momento. Tienen que ganar uno de Texas, Tennessee o Dakota del Norte, que son:
STEPHANOPOULOS: Todos - ahora están todos detrás.
PLATA: Y todos están atrasados en esas carreras. Si vas a tener una muy buena participación de nuevo, entonces no están tan lejos de dónde está la desesperanza y ahí es donde, ya sabes, el 20 por ciento es una probabilidad tangible real.
Pero allí (ph) el Senado es un pronóstico muy por carrera, y esas razas que parecen lanzamientos antes y se han desplazado a lo que llamamos la columna republicana coja, lo que significa que tienen que barrer a todos los demócratas y demoledores. entonces gana uno de estos que parecen un poco difíciles.
Por lo tanto, es probable que necesite que las encuestas se desactiven de la forma en que lo hicieron, por ejemplo, en 2016, donde simplemente superaron sus encuestas en todos los ámbitos. Luego estamos hablando de un posible camino (ph), pero, pero las matemáticas del Senado son muy difíciles en todos estos estados tan rojos.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So the Democrats take control, you might even see Republicans pick up seats.
SILVER: Oh, sure, yes, no, it’s at least as likely that the GOP would gain seats and there are scenarios where they win all the toss up races and they could – they could win three Senate seats even in a world where they lose the House potentially.
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK, let’s look at the House as well. Their way (ph) a flip side of the Senate numbers right, there (ph) split up the House numbers right now. You see a seven in nine chance – six in seven chance the Democrats would control, one in seven chance Republicans keep control.
So there it comes down to 85 percent chance that Democrats win control. That sounds a lot bigger than it is, right?
SILVER: Yes, look, I mean if you were running a business and I told you there’s a 15 percent chance or a 20 percent chance that you key supplier won’t make it’s delivery, you would treat that as a very tangible, real world risk and you would do things to hedge against it.
The thing about the House is that you cannot circle 23 districts where you say oh I know for sure Democrats will win these. Maybe 10, 12, 15 look very likely. However you have a field of maybe 80, 90, 100 potential pickups, mathematically probably the dice come up good enough for Democrats in those districts.
But like, there are not a lot of guarantees and the House is very much fought at a district by district level.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And only a handful of seats where the Democrats could lose the seat.
SILVER: And that’s why – I mean it’s – it really is the mirror image of the Senate where Democrats have so much exposure in the Senate. All these incumbents, you know, all these very red states, just a reverse of that in the House where Democrats are kind of in a no lose situation almost literally in the House where they might have four or five seats they could lose versus 100 GOP seats in play.
Not a lot of guarantees, but that’s why we show like a very wide range, anywhere from a 20 seat gain, the Democrats have a disappointing night (ph) which is not quite enough, up to 50, 60 seats if the turnout is – is very high.
STEPHANOPOULOS: What are the biggest X factors that increase the uncertainty in your model?
SILVER: It is turnout, I mean it’s – turnout is always difficult for pollsters to forecast and the fact that you have a lot of districts that have not had competitive races in a long time, turnout’s even more difficult to forecast there than in a state like Florida for example.
And we have two weeks to go, you know. I would not put it past us to have – for us to have another October surprise or two in the era of – of Trumpian news cycles.
STEPHANOPOULOS: That is an (ph) important caution right there. Nate Silver, thanks very much.
SILVER: Thank you.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Round Table’s coming up, and next we’re live in Mexico where a caravan of migrants is heading north. Is has sparked shouting matches in the West Wing. President Trump promises to make it an issue in the midterms and we’ll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Our senior national correspondent Matt Gutman is on the border of Guatemala and Mexico right now. Matt, what are you seeing and hearing right now? You seem to be right in the middle of it.
MATT GUTMAN, ABC NEWS SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You may be able to see this mass of humanity stretched out behind me. That goes back about two miles, we are told. There are many hundred, quite possibly 2,000 migrants, in this procession, all heading northwards away from that border.
Everybody you see here, George, crossed illegally, likely over that river. They probably jumped from that bridge into the river than swam across or came across on rafts. And you can see, they're not carrying much. Many people have plastic bags, maybe a backpack, flip-flops and other shoes.
Many of them say they are not criminals. They are not as assassins. They only want a better life away from the violence, corruption, and the gangs in their home countries of Honduras and Guatemala.
And they say they're going to keep going until they reach the U.S. border, which is about 1,700 miles away, George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: 1,700 miles away. They're going to keep going. The Mexicans have been pulling some of them aside, but do they expect to reach the U.S. border?
GUTMAN: We don't know what they expect, but at some point, we are being sort of shadowed by the Mexican federal police. I'm going to get ahead of these people.
We are being shadowed by the Mexican federal police. They are monitoring this. They brought plane loads of extra federal police here. We don't know if we're going to see arrests or these people detained at any point, but there clearly is no stopping them right now. They have commandeered the main north-south highway in this entire region and they don't look like they're going to stop anytime soon.
STEPHANOPOULOS: (Inaudible) down there at the border. Matt Gutman, thanks very much. Roundtable’s up next. We’ll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Any guy that can do a body slam, he’s my guy. He’s my guy.
I had heard that he body slammed a reporter. And he was way up. And he was way up. And I said -- this was like the day of the election or just before. And I said oh, this is terrible, he’s going to lose the election. Then I said well wait a minute, I know Montana pretty well, I think it might help him. And it did.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Congressman Gianforte did win that race. He was charged with body slamming that reporter as well. President Trump on the stump this Thursday in Montana. We’re going to talk about the midterms now on our roundtable with Senior Congressional Correspondent Mary Bruce, Kim Strassel, a columnist for the Wall Street Journal, Juan Williams, a political analyst for Fox News, author of the new book, "What The Hell Do You Have To Lose: Trump’s War on Civil Rights".
(LAUGHTER)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Did I say that right?
(LAUGHTER)
JUAN WILLIAM, POLITICAL ANALYST, FOX NEWS: You hit it just right.
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK. Republican Strategist Alex Castellanos and Democratic Strategist Karen Finney, long-time advisor to Hillary Clinton. And Alex, let me begin with you. And listen, midterms, we all know, they’re always a referendum on the president. Never more than this year.
ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Never more than this year. Trump is on every ballot and we just saw his strength and his weakness there. The same week that a reporter is butchered overseas he’s talking about body slamming a reporter here. But what does that tell us? Trump is all about strength. In an uncertain world where everything is falling apart, where people don’t know what to believe in, where -- where everything is uncertain you want someone to hold it together.
And besides, you know, all the media, all the criticism of Trump and his craziness and all that, there’s another America, as we learned in 2016, that thinks the world’s falling apart and they want a president who projects strength.
STEPHANOPULOS: And Karen, I think (ph) one of the things we’ve seen from that projection of strength, as Alex talks about, is a consolidation of the Republican vote, which has really contributed to the rise in the president’s approval ratings.
KAREN FINNEY, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: It has, although it’s also October and it’s a time when you would expect to see some of this consolidation. And I would actually offer -- not surprisingly -- an opposing view.
CASTELLANOS: Shocked.
FINNEY: I know. We’re shocked. Which is that I think a lot of people are realizing that the Trump rhetoric is not actually doing for them what they thought it was going to do. They sort of thought perhaps maybe what he’s saying is offensive but I’m going to be OK. And I think what they’re realizing, trickle down economics doesn’t work.
I’m tired of Washington having to spend so much time defending this president, protecting this president. Where are the jobs?
(CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: -- economy’s doing better?
FINNEY: Not for people – I’ll tell you, I spent a lot of time –
(CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: How can you give Obama credit for it –
(CROSSTALK)
FINNEY: -- we have a 700 and –
(CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: -- if Trump isn’t holding it there?
(CROSSTALK)
FINNEY: -- but look at the deficit – look, I think the issue is people are realizing this president is offensive, he’s race baiting and so he’s reminding people of some of the things they don’t like about him and that’s a problem for a lot of –
(CROSSTALK)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Mary, you cover Capital Hill everyday. One thing Republican candidates, Republican incumbents wish the president would talk about a little bit more is the economy, is their agenda.
BRUCE: Yes, and the president this week made very clear his closing argument, right, he’s going out there talking about immigration instead of necessarily hitting on the economy and some of the other issues that I think a lot of Republicans on Capitla Hill want to be talking about.
Because when the president does go out and hits so hard on immigration, it also exposes the flip side, which is that Congress hasn’t been able to do anything on this issue. The president isn’t making an argument about policy here, he’s making an emotional argument and that is a little tricky for some Republicans.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And Kim, one of the things we saw in that piece from Ted Cruz from Paula Faris on the – on the Texas Senate race is that even someone like Ted Cruz, it puts him in an uncomfortable position when the president’s talking about immigration.
STRASSEL: Yes, look, I think if you were to talk to the White House, their argument would be we were out there, we were talking about the economy, our candidates were talking about the economy and we weren’t getting a lot of traction.
But I have put my name out, I’m going to make this a referendum on me, and the only way that we pull this out is to excite our base, get them ginned (ph) up and have them turn out.
Now it does put some of those congressional members, especially in those suburban districts in an awkward place, because they have to talk to that base but also backpedal from the president a little bit.
But overall, the belief is is that in addition to the Kavanaugh hearings, which gave a lot of fuel out there for Republicans, the president being out there and saying latching onto this, they’re about mobs, we’re about jobs, you know, this is what’s changing the dynamic that Nate Silver was describing.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Yes, and I was just saying (inaudible) and Juan as Nate – as we just heard from Nate, this could all come down to who does the president energize more in these final two weeks?
WILLIAMS: Correct, so I mean what you’re seeing is I think they’re playing to the pollsters here, George, and the pollsters are making it clear the tax cuts were not working as a message for the midterms.
He switched now and he said hey, immigration stirs this base. This talk of mobs especially after Kavanaugh stirs the Republican base. And so it becomes a base election in that sense.
Get our people to the polls. What you’ve seen after Kavanaugh is a hike or a spike I should say in the Republican level of enthusiasm for turning out, participating in the midterms.
On the other hand, I think what you see is the president is all too willing to go about body slamming the press or go after the notion that the immigrants are really criminals, they’re all MS-13 or as he said this week, likely Democratic voters.
STEPHANOPOULOS: It’s pretty clear – go ahead.
FINNEY: I was just going to say but that kind of fear mongering – I mean part of the – the what’s that we’re hearing in the polling is not getting to the why and I do think – remember, it’s energizing Republican men, college educated, Republican women and independents were saying this in the Georgia race are not with the Republican Party –
STEPHANOPOULOS: Georgia governors race.
FINNEY: Georgia governors race – they are not with the Republican Party, and when he goes out there and talks about, you know, the fear mongering and horse face, people are remind – I don’t like that.
And when – and some – for some of these candidates who ran – hold on, for some of these candidates who were Trumpian in their primaries, it is a problem for them in their general because people are now having to back away.
And he puts them in a very tough position, as you said.
CASTELLANOS: Trump didn’t just drop on planet earth, he’s been this guy, we know this guy. Democrats are already on fire. Democratic women are on fire. We’ve already seen this.
Problem with fire is you can’t set fire on fire. It can’t grow, they can’t get any more intense.
(CROSS TALK)
FINNEY: But our base is growing – but the number of vote – people voting for Democrats is growing while the number of Republicans is holding still.
STRASSEL: Can we just step back for one second though? We don’t know what’s going to happen yet in November.
STEPHANOPOULOS: It’s all stipulation.
STRASSEL: OK, but what we know over the past three weeks, you know, there was a very compelling analysis from Charlie Cook from Cook Political Ratings, he wrote just a couple days ago he goes one thing we do know is that one of the biggest mistakes Democrats have made in a very long time was how they handled Kavanaugh.
You know, three weeks ago the Democrats could have taken over the Senate.
(CROSS TALK)
STEPHANOPOULOS: But then the question –
STRASSEL: (Inaudible) have a blue wave. That is pretty much done at this point and that’s clear –
(CROSS TALK)
STEPHANOPOULOS: It was clear – it was clear three weeks out, the question is that going to be sustained or has it peaked?
BRUCE: Yes, and given the news cycle and the way that things – the conversation can change, who knows how long that will be sustained. And Republicans clearly are betting on the fact that they think they get a bounce from Kavanugh.
They’re projecting that. But that also could work to their disadvantage. I mean you could see a lot of, you know, moderate Republicans being turned off by the way that Republicans handled this.
So Democrats can also benefit from this entire conversation as well.
WILLIAMS: And don’t forget, Kavanaugh right now is not approved of by most Americans. His confirmation is opposed by most Americans. So when you talk about whether the Kavanaugh spike dissipates, it’s a very real question.
And that's why when Trump goes off message, when it makes it solely about Trump, when he starts talking about Stormy Daniels as horse face, when he goes off on body slamming reporters, I think there's a lot of sense of, yeah, you're playing to the base, but you're hurting us, and you're specifically hurting us in these suburban House races outside of major metropolitan areas with suburban white educated women.
STEPHANOPOULOS: One thing that's pretty clear is that the Republicans are trying to make a lot of this election, at least in the House, about Nancy Pelosi. And it caused some uncomfortable situations for Democratic candidates.
I want to talk -- who are about a third of the non-incumbents -- have refused to explicitly support her. I want to show a little bit of that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN, D-MASS.: Now, the president likes to call my mom a liar. What do the facts say?
CARLOS BUSTAMONTE, STANFORD UNIVERSITY: The facts suggest that you absolutely...
have would you vote for Nancy
UNIDENTIFIED FINNEY: Would you vote for Nancy Pelosi for House Democratic leader.
MAX ROSE, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE N.Y. 11TH: No.
RASHIDA TLAIB, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE MICHICANT 13TH: Probably not.
AMMAR CAMPA-NAJJAR, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE CALIF. 50th: Honestly, no.
ELISSA SLOTKIN, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE MICH. 8TH: I would not support Nancy Pelosi as our next speaker.
MIKIE SHERRILL, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE N.J. 11TH: I don't support Nancy Pelosi. I've put out a commercial saying that I don't support Nancy Pelosi.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STPEHANOPOULOS: We actually got a little bonus with Elizabeth Warren talking about her (inaudible) on that as well. Technical snafus.
But Mary, this is going to -- this is creating an interesting dynamic. Democrats will say that this is overstating her lack of support. These are people who are just aren't willing to come out and declare it. But if the Democrats do take control but it's on the low end of that 23, it's not certain that she will be speaker.
BRUCE: And it all comes down to what margin, right. How many members actually are members who came out and ran saying that they wouldn't support Nancy Pelosi?
What's interesting now is we're seeing her sort of lay some groundwork here in an interview she said do whatever you have to do to win. I don't care if you say you're not going to support me. Everything changes once they -- if they take back the majority.
FINNEY: You know, you're so right about that, because remember if you like your health care, you can thank Nancy Pelosi, by the way. And people remember that. She's a very effective leader on the Democratic side. People know that.
BRUCE: And don't discount Nancy Pelosi. I mean, she knows very well how much support she has.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Karen mentions health care. That has turned out to be the most effective issue for Democrats in this campaign.
STRASSEL: Remarkable, too, because by the way who landed us with soaring health care prices? The Democrats and yet now they've turned it around and essentially saying, well, you know, it's the Republicans fault because they haven't fixed it. And I give them full credit for managing to do that.
But one of the problems for Republicans, they're back where they were in 2006 when they lost the House the first time. And one of the reasons that that happened is because they did not have an effective message on health care and Democrats did and Barack Obama did.
WILLIAMS: And it doesn't help when you have the Senate majority leader this week come out and say, oh, and if we retain control of the House and Senate, we will do severe damage to social entitlement programs, Social Security and Medicaid and Medicare.
STEPHANOPOULOS: What he said was -- he actually said they're not going to do it, but this is the real problem behind...
WILLIAMS: And suggested somehow -- and the suggestion was, oh, you know, the deficit spiking and those Democrats are talking about this -- the real cause is not loss of revenue, but the expansion of social entitlement, but that's not true.
Not, it's -- the revenue is down.
CASTELLANOS: As much as we look at a survey -- ooh, it's up at 14 percent. Number one, issue 14 percent. No one cares. This election is about much bigger things -- a world falling apart, is the president a threat to women, is he going to take women back? This election is about turbulent change.
We've been here before, by the way. We've seen this election in the 60s. The counter culture, which was about which was about women's lib, black power, and the whole Earth catalog. And what did that produce? Richard Nixon and the silent majority.
Today we're seeing -- we're back to the '60s. We have #metoo. We have Colin Kaepernick.
WILLIAMS: They want a check on Trump.
FINNEY: If you're a black woman...
CASTELLANOS: Is a check on Trump -- is a t check on Trump bigger than women's -- empowering women? That's one of the tests we're going to see.
FINNEY: Alex, two things, for some of us in this country, it wasn't just about the '60s. These struggles -- I will say this have been ongoing.
CASTELLANOS: By the way, the '60s won. I'm agreeing with you.
FINNEY: It's not about the 60s, it's that America won, it's that we progressed and people -- look you say Trump that is about strength. I say he is about buffoonery. My god...
CASTELLANOS: Well, that's the debate we have...
FINNEY: What he's done this weekend alone on the Khashoggi case it sound like what he said about Charlottesville, about people being on both sides of the issue.
CASTELLANOS: I'm not advocating, I am trying to just take a good, strong good look at it here.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And Mary, one of the other things you saw on the Khashoggi case is that, even the president's strongest supporters in the House and the Senate, backing away from him.
BRUCE: Yeah, once again you have the situation where the president, his refusal to come out and strongly condemn a situation, puts him at odds with his own party. I mean, you have the president coming out and saying he finds this latest explanation credible. Congress, members of his party, do not.
The president wants to maintain these arms sale. Congress, members of his own party, want to use that as leverage. And it just creates this incredibly big divide.
And even -- I should say one notable -- people who have not commented yet, leadership. You have not seen Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan --
(CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: Now wait a minute. George -- so Donald Trump’s problem now is that he’s too measured? When did we enter this world? Look, there’s a reason Saudi Arabia --
(CROSSTALK)
FINNEY: -- he’s trying to have it both ways in the same way he’s trying to say none of these (ph) are OK and --
CASTELLANOS: -- it’s not -- I think we ought to be very careful before we talk about having it both ways. First of all, I don’t know anybody, including the president, who hasn’t condemned this. But the big issue here is there’s a reason Saudi Arabia is the largest purchaser of American arms, is because they use them to project strength in a region with (ph) -- we don’t want to do. They do what we don’t want to do.
STEPHANOPOULOS: First of all (ph) --
CASTELLANOS: So lives are at stake. If you’re talking about reducing arms sales, you may also be saying we’re going to --
FINNEY: Because we’re so desperate thanks to the deficit, we need that money don’t we?
CASTELLANOS: -- no, we’re going to put American men and women at risk, in harm’s way there.
(CROSSTALK)
STEPHANOPOULOS: -- if the president’s condemned the death --
CASTELLANOS: -- so you want him to be measured here.
STEPHANOPOULOS: The president’s condemned the death of Khashoggi, he has not condemned --
FINNEY: That’s right.
STEPHANOPOULOS: -- the murder of Khashoggi. But rather (ph) the question I have --
CASTELLANOS: So do we know what happened, though?
STEPHANOPOULOS: I think we have a pretty good idea.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
STEHPANOPOULOS: The question I have is that, you know (ph), this has dominated headlines for three weeks right now but doesn’t matter to voters.
STRASSEL: Yes, well I think a lot of people just have a hard time focusing on foreign -- I mean, foreign policy was always one of those issues that unless you’re in the middle of an active hot war or something, it’s not something that voters go to for the thing (ph). So it’s something to watch on TV, especially when people are mentioning bone saws, et cetera. But it’s -- it’s not necessarily something that the average voter -- it rises to the level that Alex has been talking about, these huge issues.
WILLIAMS: You know what, I think that the problem --
(CROSSTALK)
BRUCE: But -- but what it is doing is -- is taking up a lot of the conversation. When a lot of members of Congress, instead of having to come out and say where they stand in comparison to what the president thinks. They want to be talking about the midterms, they want to be talking about tax reform and the economy and immigration and they’re not being able to do that.
WILLIAMS: But I think a lot of it comes back to what you’re talking about. When you start talking about the grisly dismemberment of a journalist or a dissident voice, people want to see that the American president is able to dominate on that world stage and command. Instead what it looks like is he is deferring to the wealth of the Saudis, inviting questions about his tax returns -- you heard it earlier on this show from Congressman Schiff. And it’s this -- again -- distraction from the simple idea that if he was seen as in command and control versus the Saudi King, it would be helpful to the Republicans.
STEPHANOPOULOS: That’s all we have time for today. Thank you all very much. We’ll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
STEPHANOPOULOS: That is all for us today. Thanks for sharing part of your Sunday with us. Check out WORLD NEWS TONIGHT and I’ll see you tomorrow on GMA.
FIN
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