As new sanctions against Iran are looming, the United States intends to close gaps
As new sanctions against Iran are looming, the United States intends to close gaps
The Trump government advanced on Friday towards its goal of maximum economic pressure against Iran, while granting exemptions to eight countries to temporarily import Iranian oil without facing the punishment of the US. UU
The exemptions, to countries that government advisers say include China, Turkey and India, are designed to give them time to switch to other suppliers while reducing or eliminating their purchases of Iranian oil over time.
But with the campaign of economic pressure of the EE. UU That came into full force at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time on Monday, US officials also fought to plug the holes that have plagued previous plans for sanctions against Iran.
Unlike the global support for the sanctions of the Obama administration, the wide opposition to the current policy of the United States, including the European allies, will surely complicate the task. And Iran is committed to resist sanctions.
However, the Trump government has had a strong start: Iranian oil exports have fallen by more than one million barrels per day since the White House launched its new campaign in May. That decrease represents more than a third of international sales.
Iran's economy, with oil representing 80% of tax revenues, is suffering. The largest companies in Europe have retreated, and Iranian consumers rushed to exchange their rials, pushing the value of the currency to historic lows and causing an increase in consumer prices.
In March, the International Monetary Fund forecast that Iran's economy would expand by 4% in 2018. It now predicts a two-year recession, with a 3.6% contraction next year.
The price of a gasoline tank has been rising, and sanctions by the US. UU In Iran they mean that drivers could suffer even more pain at the pump. But that is not the whole story. Sarah Kent from WSJ explains why world oil prices are at the forefront. Photo: Getty Images
"We have seen a dramatic reduction in oil imports by Iran's main importers, a collapse in foreign direct investment, capital flight and banks deciding that the cost-benefit analysis of doing business in Iran simply does not It's there, "said Brian Hook, who heads the New Iranian Action Group of the State Department, in an interview.
The Trump administration's strategy to toughen sanctions began with its decision in May to withdraw from the Iran nuclear pact of 2015, triggering the re-imposition of many sanctions while giving to the US. UU Margin of maneuver to apply economic pressure with indulgence or force. An executive order issued by President Trump established November 5 as the day on which the oil sanctions are resumed.
They prohibit purchases of Iranian oil, as companies face sanctions unless the State Department grants exemptions to their countries of origin.
US officials did not name the countries that received exemptions on Friday. Government advisers said China, India and Turkey, along with South Korea, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, Taiwan and Iraq, will likely receive exemptions.
Separately on Friday, the US Treasury Department said it lifted sanctions against two Turkish government ministers who imposed themselves in August amid Ankara's refusal to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was arrested three months later. a failed military coup in July 2016. Turkey has already released him.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters on Friday that his office will add more than 700 Iranian banks, companies and individuals to its blacklist of sanctions, including some that had previously been granted relief from sanctions under international nuclear agreement of 2015 with Iran.
Some of the Iranian banks will be blacklisted for their links to the government, while others will be used to finance activities linked to terrorist groups designated by the United States, human rights abuses and weapons programs.
The United States warned that the Europe-based financial courier company Swift, whose infrastructure allows banks to conduct cross-border transactions quickly and cheaply, also runs the risk of US sanctions if it does not disconnect banks linked to groups. terrorists, rights abuses and weapons programs. system.
That threat has fueled tensions with Washington's transatlantic allies that have so far opposed the Iranian policy of the Trump government.
Swift declined to comment.
The Trump administration is trying to overcome the success of Obama's sanctions, which led to the 2015 nuclear deal. After leaving that agreement in May, the Trump team said it wants a broader agreement with Iran that not only prevents the development of nuclear weapons; it also bans long-range missiles and curbs Tehran's support for armed conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
"History shows that this regime only changes its behavior and comes to the negotiating table when it is under significant pressure," Hook said.
But Tehran is not completely isolated. Many of the world's largest economies, including transatlantic allies, opposed the Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions. European governments and others have tried to preserve ties with Iran, in part as an effort to ensure that it stays in the nuclear deal. That global support for Tehran can give license for evasion.
"Dissatisfaction with the sanctions program of the United States is a silent stimulus for circumvention," said Alma Angotti, general director of global research practice at Navigant Consulting.
The European Union, despite a corporate exodus, wants to protect trade and finance with Iran from the sanctions of the United States. Signatures from China, Russia and other places have remained in Iran.
A combination of machine learning, big data and tens of millions of satellite images of the planet every day is bad news for Iranian oil carriers trying to evade US oil sanctions. UU This is why.
Washington said it intends to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero in the coming months, threatening to impose sanctions on companies and countries that do not switch to new sources that the United States is negotiating to put online in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar. And at home.
As their oil sales dwindle, the Iranian government is struggling to keep selling surreptitiously, using techniques perfected during Obama's lobbying campaign, US officials. UU They say: load cargoes on non-Iranian ships at sea and turn off satellite beacons on board.
In recent months, Tehran has assembled a special anti-sanctions group, say experts from Iran, with senior officials from the oil, intelligence, export and foreign ministries and the Central Bank of Iran.
During the pressure campaign of the Obama era, Tehran moved tens of billions of dollars in oil, gold and other goods through banks, trading companies and exchange houses around the world, including Turkey and Dubai, one of the seven EE. UU emirates It is reactivating that infrastructure, say US officials.
Turkey's state-owned Halkbank, as well as several other Turkish banks under scrutiny by US prosecutors, face multimillion-dollar fines from the United States for their role in those activities.
Neither the bank nor the Turkish and American officials. The embassies in Washington responded to requests for comments.
A US security official UU Familiar with the matter he said that the government of Dubai has assured the USA. UU That will not allow that activity again.
"There is nothing at this time that gives me the specific concern that there is a real flight," said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, between stops on a tour of the Middle East last month.
Much of his trip, which included stops in the U.A.E., Qatar and Kuwait, focused on ensuring compliance with the sanctions. But, "to the extent that we see it, we will discover how to plug the holes," Mnuchin said.
Mr. Hook said that the United States already knows the clandestine channels of Iran and that it will be "vigorous and implacable in the application".
The foreign policy chief of the European Union and the ministers of foreign affairs and finance of France, Britain and Germany said in a statement that European governments "deeply regret the new imposition of sanctions" and reiterated their support for the nuclear agreement 2015
Officials said they are still working on measures to protect trade and investment in Iran, but that the centerpiece of these measures, a special-purpose vehicle to facilitate trade, was not yet ready.
-Asa Fitch in Dubai and Laurence Norman in Brussels contributed to this article.
Write to Ian Talley to ian.talley@wsj.com
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