The California Democrats prove the limits of anti-utopianism
The California Democrats prove the limits of anti-utopianism
The Democrats are targeting eight of the 14 congressional districts in California that Republicans currently have. Voters in seven of the 14 districts favored Hillary Clinton in 2016. Opposition to Donald Trump has raised the hopes of Democrats to overthrow the GOP incumbents in the Golden State, including the conservative fortress of Orange County. , easing your way to the majority of the House.
But the revulsion towards the liberal government in California is growing as its failures increase. This can counteract the animus towards Mr. Trump. It would be easier for the Democrats in California to defeat the Republicans if all the politics were national. Instead, they have to deal with the litany of local problems that their progressive policies have forged.
For starters, the costs of government pensions are skyrocketing across the state, forcing them to raise taxes and cut public services. Seven cities in Orange County are asking voters to approve increases in sales taxes in November. Santa Ana, a predominantly Hispanic low-income city, is trying to increase its sales tax by 1.5 percentage points to 9.25%.
The League of California Cities warned at the beginning of this year It was projected that the costs of local pensions will increase by 50% by 2024 and could lead some municipalities to bankruptcy. The Los Angeles Unified School District is making emergency budget cuts and layoffs to avoid bankruptcy, however, the teachers union threatens to strike if its members do not receive a 6% raise.
Public pensions with insufficient funds are diverting the precious dollars from the taxpayers of transport and other public works projects. Last year, the Democratic Legislature got bogged down in a 12-cent increase in gasoline taxes to finance repairs to poor roads and congested roads. Apart from Hawaii, California gas prices are the highest in the country: 95 cents per gallon more than the national average. In June, voters recalled state Democratic Senator Josh Newman, whose Southern California district favored Mrs. Clinton by 13 points, due to her vote to increase the gas tax. The tax increase is so politically poisonous that even progressive Democrat Katie Porter, who is challenging Orange County Republican Rep. Mimi Walters, has been posting television commercials declaring, "I oppose the highest taxes on the gasoline". He has also promoted his opposition.
Newman's retirement deprived the Democrats of the legislative majority they need to raise taxes without the support of the Republican Party. But this November, Democrats are trying to change two state senates and two congressional districts, held by Mr. Denham and David Valadao, in the rich San Joaquin Valley. Democrats have the advantage of registration in these districts, but are overwhelmed by their long-term support for unpopular environmental policies that restrict water to farmers in the region. Water concerns are helping to keep Mr. Denham and Mr. Valadao afloat despite the disdain of voters for President Trump.
Then there is the fiasco of the Department of Motor Vehicles. The sclerotic agency is struggling to meet the growing demand for Real ID licenses that will be needed to board domestic flights beginning in 2020. Californians wait three to four months for an appointment with the DMV. Democrats recently accused the agency of automatically registering voters to renew or replace their driver's licenses. Recently, the agency reported that its poorly trained technicians committed 23,000 registration errors. All this is raising questions about the government's competence. Former Republican insurance commissioner Steve Poizner, who is running for his former job as an independent, has compared the single payer legislation that his Democratic opponent, Ricardo Lara, sponsored in the state Senate to put the DMV in charge of medical care. Mr. Poizner is ahead in most surveys.
The caution of progressive ideology is most evident in the governor's career with Democratic Deputy Governor Gavin Newsom and Republican businessman John Cox. During the state's open primary, the Democrat approached progressive and public unions, supporting single-payer medical care and a moratorium on charter schools. But Mr. Newsom has recently found himself in defense while Mr. Cox gets rid of the state's vagrancy epidemic and high housing costs. At a recent campaign event in the suburb of Seal Beach in Orange County, Mr. Newsom said: "What happened to our state?" At another stop in the campaign, in Torrance, he called homelessness "the ultimate manifestation of our failure" and acknowledged that "we are owners of that."
During a meeting with the editorial committee of the San Francisco Chronicle, Mr. Newsom even criticized city officials for tolerating vagrancy and drug use. "It may be too permissive, and I think we have crossed that threshold in this state, and not just in this city," he said.
Mr. Newsom and his liberal allies have raised seven times more money than his Republican opponent, but Mr. Cox is overcoming the spread. A KFI-NBC poll this week shows that the Republican is by 7 points even though the Democrats have a 19-point voter registration advantage. At this time in 2014, Governor Jerry Brown led the polls over 20 points.
So, where does that put the Republican candidates in the house? The majority of Republican incumbents in the districts that favored Ms. Clinton easily won in 2016. Ms. Walters and her compatriot Dana Rohrabacher of Orange County took their districts by 17 points. Electorates in most of these districts remain conservative, but projections of a large liberal turnout give Democrats an electoral advantage.
However, the majority leader in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, whose safe Republican district includes Bakersfield, expects conservatives to be forced to support Mr. Cox and repeal the gas tax. The test this November is whether the displeasure of California voters for President Trump overcomes his disdain for the progressive leadership of his own state.
Ms. Finley is a member of the editorial board of the magazine.
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