The acceleration of climate change and environmental degradation in the Mediterranean region threatens...
The acceleration of climate change and environmental degradation in the Mediterranean region threatens society and natural systems
The acceleration of climate change and environmental degradation in the Mediterranean region threatens society and natural systems
In recent years the average temperature has increased by 1.4 ° C since the pre-industrial era - almost half a degree more than the average increase in global temperature - sea level has increased by 6 centimeters in the last two decades and its waters they have been acidifying. Today, a team of scientists in which CSIC researchers Joaquim Garrabou, from the Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM), and Josep Peñuelas, from the Center for Ecological Research and Forest Applications (CREAF) (Spain), have published in Nature Climate Change a study that synthesizes the five major risks associated with the global change facing the Mediterranean region: water, biodiversity loss, food security and human health, all of which are interconnected risks.
The study, led by Wolfgang Cramer, of the Mediterranean Institute of Marine and Continental Biodiversity and Ecology (IMBE, France), was attended by experts from 18 research institutions in France, Germany, Spain, Japan, Italy, Israel, Cyprus , United Kingdom, Morocco and Hong Kong.
In the case of water availability, even if global warming were limited to an increase of 2 ° C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, summer rains in this area would run the risk of being reduced by 10% and 30% in some regions, which would increase the scarcity of water and cause losses in agricultural productivity, particularly in the countries of the south. On the other hand, it is expected that the demand for water will increase between 4% and 22% if they want to satisfy the water needs of agriculture and compensate the growth of the human population. The increase in demand will be in conflict with other uses, such as the need for potable water or use for tourism or industry.
Climate change can cause the proliferation of filamentous algae that cover and drown other organisms, such as this white gorgonia (on the right of the image) covered with greenish filamentous algae. Medas Islands. (Author: Joaquim Garrabou)
Climate change in combination with other factors linked to human activities are altering the biodiversity and functioning of both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. The reduction of rainfall along with high temperatures will result in an increase in periods of drought and episodes of forest fires. On the other hand, the warming of the sea will be associated with an increase of massive mortalities, blooms of harmful species and colonization of invasive species. Although the interactions between the different disturbances are complex, the net result of the changes will most likely be a significant decrease in the capacity of many ecosystems to provide ecosystem services at current levels.
According to the study, the global loss of ice in Antarctica, Greenland and many mountainous areas will cause an increase in sea level more accelerated than in the most recent estimates. This increase will directly affect the Mediterranean, where a large part of the population lives very close to the coast. On the other hand, saltwater intrusion would affect agricultural soils in many areas, such as the Nile Delta. Public health will also be affected by future changes, especially those caused by heat waves and the effects of pollution, that would increase the risk of cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. In addition, it would increase the risk of diseases such as dengue or Chikungunya, given the conditions for the organisms that transmit these diseases to spread their distribution.
The politically unstable countries of the southern Mediterranean will be especially vulnerable. In these areas there are fewer observations and impact models, and fewer financial resources. This bias further reduces their ability to adapt. In fact, climate change could be the trigger for problems such as famines, migration and other new conflicts. In this sense, the lower amount of water available, the tendency for the production of food of animal origin to increase and the risks that threaten the fishing sector (climate change, acidification and overfishing) will mean that, especially in the countries of the south, increase dependence on trade and put food security in check.
The latest evaluation reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) provide useful insights, but do not show an integrated view of the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, as a result of this work, the MedECC network (Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change) has been established, which currently has 400 experts and the support of government agencies, among other partners. The objective of MedECC is to make a complete analysis of the climatic risks that the Mediterranean regions face and expose them to the administration and influence the debate and approval of effective measures against climate change and environmental degradation. (Source: CSIC)
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